Likud officials ‘hope for a miracle’ as haredi parties weigh joining Eisenkot government - analysis

Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot received the mandate to form a government on Sunday, prompting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to launch an effort to prevent the formation of a government led by the opposition bloc, amid growing Likud concerns that the haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties could join the emerging coalition.

In recent days, Netanyahu has held consultations with senior Likud officials and assigned tasks to ministers and political partners. The effort has focused on the haredi leadership, attempts to persuade MKs from the anti-Netanyahu bloc not to support the government, and exploring ways to bring Avigdor Liberman back into the right-wing camp.

However, within Likud, including among veteran ministers and MKs, some doubt Netanyahu's ability to prevent United Torah Judaism from joining an Eisenkot government if the rabbis receive an offer that meets their demands.

As part of the outreach to the ultra-Orthodox parties, ministers have been asked to approach associates of Rabbi Dov Lando and Rabbi Moshe Hillel Hirsch, while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has been tasked with reaching out to figures in the Yashar party who oppose relying on the Arab parties.

Netanyahu has also continued calling for a national unity government, but disagreements remain over who would serve as prime minister, the composition of the coalition, and its basic policy guidelines.

In private conversations, Likud officials acknowledge that Netanyahu currently lacks meaningful political tools to ensure the haredi parties remain in the right-wing bloc. Some have even said that "in the current situation, all that remains is to put our trust in God and hope for a miracle."

According to Likud officials, if Eisenkot offers United Torah Judaism an acceptable arrangement on military enlistment, it is difficult to see how Netanyahu could prevent a deal.

At the center of the concern is Rabbi Dov Lando, the spiritual leader of Degel Hatorah.

"Rabbi Lando has never considered himself committed to the right-wing camp," Likud officials said. "Already in the 1980s and 1990s, he publicly disagreed with Rabbi Shach's position against cooperation with the Left. His position has not changed, but now he heads the spiritual leadership, and Degel Hatorah representatives follow his rulings."

'High Court of Justice will not strike down Eisenkot's enlistment law'

In conversations with senior ultra-Orthodox figures, Netanyahu has also encountered the argument that a military enlistment arrangement negotiated with Eisenkot could prove more legally durable.

When Netanyahu warned that Eisenkot would not deliver an enlistment law for the ultra-Orthodox community, senior haredi officials replied: "Unlike your enlistment law, the High Court of Justice will not strike down Eisenkot's."

Likud officials also fear that the ultra-Orthodox parties may not demand that Eisenkot pass an enlistment law before the government is formed. Instead, they could rely on a coalition agreement with him, if one is signed, which could make it easier for the anti-Netanyahu bloc to negotiate with United Torah Judaism.

The mandate to form a government is now in Eisenkot's hands, and some ultra-Orthodox figures believe an agreement with the anti-Netanyahu bloc could produce a military enlistment arrangement that would be harder to overturn in court.

Netanyahu can promise a future arrangement, but it is far from clear whether he could form a government capable of advancing it.

Reservations about partnering with parties in the anti-Netanyahu bloc

Within United Torah Judaism, there is still no agreement on joining an Eisenkot government. Alongside a willingness to consider an arrangement on military enlistment, there are reservations about partnering with parties in the anti-Netanyahu bloc, particularly the Democrats.

Senior party officials have made clear that any agreement would also need to include commitments on Shabbat, kashrut, conversion, and preserving the religious status quo.

Reservations about the move have also been voiced by representatives of Agudat Yisrael.

Likud is pinning its hopes on these disagreements. Even if an agreement is reached on military enlistment, there is no guarantee that all components of United Torah Judaism would support joining the government.

The possibility of Shas joining the coalition is also causing concern among Netanyahu's associates.

Updated assessments in both the anti-Netanyahu bloc and the Right suggest that Arye Deri would be prepared to join an Eisenkot government if United Torah Judaism did so first, paving the way for him.

In that scenario, the 48 MKs of the Zionist parties in the anti-Netanyahu bloc, United Torah Judaism's seven MKs, and Shas's six MKs could form a 61-seat coalition.

Likud officials fear that Rabbi Lando's decision would also influence Shas's position.

Ultra-Orthodox sources believe that "Deri will find it difficult to stand against a decision by the Ashkenazi leadership to join a government that will regulate the status of yeshiva students."

Right-wing figures are therefore warning of the electoral price Deri could pay.

A source in the right-wing camp said: "They want to see Deri enter Eisenkot's left-wing government? In the next election, Shas won't pass the electoral threshold!"

Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman has dropped his opposition in principle to serving in a government with the ultra-Orthodox parties, but has made clear that he will not agree to a government that relies on Arab parties and will demand an arrangement on military enlistment.

From his perspective, bringing United Torah Judaism and Shas into the coalition is the path toward forming a government without Netanyahu.

Liberman has proposed examining a framework based on the military enlistment bill he advanced in 2018, adapting it to the IDF's manpower needs following October 7. However, he has yet to present a version agreed upon with the ultra-Orthodox parties.

There are also unresolved disagreements within the anti-Netanyahu bloc.

Eisenkot will have to bridge the gap between the ultra-Orthodox parties' demands and the positions of Liberman, Naftali Bennett, and Yair Golan on military enlistment and religion-state matters.

At the same time, the bloc's leaders disagree over who should serve as the next Knesset speaker. Liberman supports appointing Yair Lapid, while Eisenkot has not agreed to his candidacy yet.

The dispute is not decisive in determining whether a government can be formed, but it illustrates how difficult it is to reach agreements even on issues not directly related to the ultra-Orthodox parties.

Liberman tells Maariv: 'It will be possible to bring in at least 3-4 Likud MKs'

Another arena of political struggle is the possibility of recruiting Likud defectors.

"Once a government of 61 is formed, there is a high probability that it will be possible to bring in at least 3-4 MKs from Likud," Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman told Maariv.

Likud, however, rejects that assessment.

Party officials argue that even if Eisenkot or Liberman attempt to recruit defectors, the effort will fail.

"There are people who are in contact with Liberman and talk to him, for example, David Bitan," a Likud source said. "But even he won't leave Likud, because Bitan is a Likudnik through and through."

Meanwhile, it has emerged that Likud figures have made attempts to renew political cooperation with Liberman.

Some believed he could be persuaded to "come home, to the Right and to Likud."

According to party officials, those efforts have been unsuccessful.

"Liberman doesn't want to. There have been many attempts to speak with him, but he is not prepared to sit with Bibi under any circumstances," they said.

Efforts to bring the Yisrael Beytenu chairman back into Netanyahu's camp have so far failed to change his position.