‘Alive and kicking’: Al-Qaeda still holds sway in Arabian Peninsula, Israeli expert tells 'Post'

Al-Qaeda and its affiliates remain “alive and kicking” in the Sahara and Arabian Peninsula, continuing to invest heavily in publishing propaganda on a daily basis, Yoram Schweitzer, an expert on international terrorism and head of the INSS Research Field on Terrorism and Low Intensity Conflict, told The Jerusalem Post on Monday, a day after CNN reported on the flydubai terrorist’s connection to the group.

Flydubai terrorist Hamam al-Hammami, an Omani national, had published tributes to al-Qaeda’s former leader Ayman al-Zawahiri and a terrorist responsible for an attack on US troops in Afghanistan in 2009.  The tribute was notably posted nine hours after the incident, suggesting he had either scheduled the post to publish after the attack or that somebody had access to his social media accounts.

The al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Bayan digital newspaper also published an article supporting Hammami’s actions and demanding copycat attacks.

“The war isn’t over yet - planes carrying Zionists, Americans and all the other infidels fighting against Islam are still hovering in the skies and can be targeted, as happened on September 11th and 30th,” al-Bayan published.

Al-Qaeda widely dispersed, influencing affiliate terror groups

Though still active, Schweitzer told the Post that the group is widely dispersed, with its cadre providing “inspiration” for its many affiliated and offshoots.

“Al-Qaeda Central is serving as an inspiration. Its publications are something to look at, something which is valid, definitely among Muslims, definitely among Muslims who wish to become radicalized or have already been radicalized,” he said. “So this is how they maintain their touch via the network, the media, social media.”

Though much of al-Qaeda’s cadre is based in Afghanistan, Schweitzer said its strongest branch is the Somali al-Shabaab movement, which has rapidly expanded its territorial control and provides financial support to other al-Qaeda affiliates.

The 2009 merger of al-Qaeda’s Yemen and Saudi-based branches into al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has enabled greater coordination among the groups, which has now reportedly extended to Yemen’s Houthis, allowing the groups to bolster their resources and trade arms.

“They are probably being trained and maintaining their power through their connections with the Taliban,” he theorized. “So there are connections between all these associates, mainly on the financial level. I suppose also maybe in training, and they are definitely operating militarily all over in the Sahel and in Somalia and in Afghanistan.”

True al-Qaeda threat level unknown until flydubai investigation concludes

Stressing that the true threat al-Qaeda poses to Israel cannot be fully known until the full findings of the investigation into Hammami are shared, Schweitzer said he instinctively didn’t believe that the flydubai incident could be a lone-wolf attack.

“He had connections with people. Whether he was operating on his own initiative, just in contact on the web with others, I don’t know yet, and we don’t know yet. So we have to see whether he was connected specifically with other people who assisted him, who had knowledge of his planning, or even people who directed him and cooperated with him,” he said. “... Up until now, what we have is just the sympathy that he expressed toward al-Qaeda.”

Based on the information available to him, Schweitzer had little doubt that Hammami had been inspired by the September 11 attacks and by Osama Bin Laden, whose 2002 letter published by The Guardian has continued to promote radicalization and has trended online as recently as 2023.

“You can definitely imagine a man in his position. The pilot was traveling around, was radicalized, and was influenced by all these TikToks, declarations, and whatever media. He could plan it by himself. You don’t have to be a genius, and if you’re a pilot, you have some kind of intelligence that allows you to plan it by yourself. Since you are a Trojan horse, you can do it. But we still have to see, in more depth, what his connections, inspirations, and maybe guidance were, and whether there was a sharing of views,” he shared.

“In many cases today, we know that very few of what we call lone wolves were what we would call pure, quote-unquote, 100% lone wolves who just talked to themselves and planned it by themselves. Usually, you can find associates, whether they are helping him, sharing his views, sharing the radicalization together, and then someone was operating.”