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Saturday, October 3, 2026

Notre Dame vs. North Carolina prediction, odds, time: Week 5 college football picks by proven model

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The SportsLine Projection Model has revealed its best bets for the Saturday matchup between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Bill Belichick and the UNC Tar Heels

• 2 min read

No. 3 Notre Dame has looked like a national title contender through four weeks, most recently crushing Purdue 49-10 on the road behind junior quarterback CJ Carr. The Fighting Irish (4-0) arrive in Chapel Hill on Saturday as heavy favorites to extend their perfect start. North Carolina (2-1) enters with added preparation after a bye week following a 28-20 loss at Clemson in Week 3, with quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. directing the Tar Heels' offense under second-year head coach Bill Belichick and first-year offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino. Claim the latest Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to get a $25 bonus after depositing $10:

Kickoff is set for noon ET at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, N.C. The Fighting Irish are 21.5-point favorites in the latest Notre Dame vs. North Carolina odds, while the over/under is 46.5 points. Before making any Notre Dame vs. North Carolina picks, check out the Notre Dame vs. North Carolina predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

Notre Dame vs. North Carolina odds

Notre Dame vs. North Carolina spread

Notre Dame -21.5

Notre Dame vs. North Carolina over/under

46.5 points

Notre Dame vs. North Carolina money line 

Notre Dame -1639, UNC +1060

Notre Dame vs. North Carolina picks

See picks at SportsLine

Notre Dame vs. North Carolina streaming 

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Top Notre Dame vs. North Carolina predictions

After simulating Notre Dame vs. UNC 10,000 times, SportsLine model is going Over 46.5 points at betting apps. Notre Dame's last game went Over the total. North Carolina's last game against Clemson also went Over the total. 

CJ Carr and the Notre Dame offense have been dominant all season, averaging 42.3 points per game through four weeks, and the Fighting Irish have reached at least 49 points in every contest. Even with a Tar Heels defense that held Clemson in check in Week 3, the model projects Notre Dame's elite scoring ability to push the total past a modest number. 

The advanced model calls for 49 combined points to be scored as the Over hits 55% of the time. See the model's spread and money-line picks at SportsLine.

How to make Notre Dame vs. North Carolina picks

In addition to going Over on the total, the model also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Notre Dame vs. UNC, and which side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's on a 34-25 run on top-rated CFB picks, and find out.

Why you should trust SportsLine's model

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It enters Week 5 on a 32-24 run on all top-rated college football picks at betting sites, returning nearly $600 for $100 players. Anybody following its picks on college football betting sites could have seen strong returns. 

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