Suspension of China exports to drive up fuel prices

Gasoline attendants fill up vehicles of customers including some public utility vehicles at a station in Quezon City on April 13, 2026.

STAR / Miguel De Guzman

MANILA, Philippines — Fuel prices are seen to rise in October after China announced that it will suspend its exports of refined products to the Asia-Pacific region, according to the Department of Energy.

“Bad news, somehow, is that China announced that it will temporarily suspend its exports of refined products to Asia-Pacific buyers. This is no longer crude oil tightness. This will be a refined product with tightness because China is a big refining country,” DOE Oil Industry Management Bureau director Rino Abad yesterday told radio dzBB.

Abad said that the decision by China may create “refined products tightness” as other countries will need to either increase their output or seek more distant markets, which will add costs and drive up retail prices.

“We can’t predict the situation this October yet. If possible, there are still many countries outside the region that we can source from, such as the US, Canada and Australia. But this could have an impact on prices,” he said.

Meanwhile, gasoline and diesel prices are expected to move in opposite directions next week amid continued market volatility spurred by the Middle East crisis. 

Following four days of trading in the regional benchmark Mean of Platts Singapore, industry estimates point to a looming increase of P1.50 to P1.80 per liter in gasoline prices.

Diesel prices, on the other hand, are likely to go down by P0.50 to P0.80 per liter.

The projections may still change depending on the final trading day of the week, with the official price adjustments to be announced on Oct. 5.

“Lingering supply stability concerns have resulted in oil’s volatile movement this week,” Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas told reporters yesterday.

While supplies from the Middle East recovered, Bellas said renewed concerns over potential disruptions following stalled US-Iran peace talks exerted upward pressure on prices. 

Prices also jumped on fears of worsening global product shortages after China suspended exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau. This added pressure to already strained product markets following refinery damage in the Middle East and Russia.

“Oil surged further following reports of more US troops moving to the Middle East and resumption of attacks on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterm elections,” Bellas added.

This week, the DOE prescribed minimum price cuts of P0.24 per liter for gasoline, P7.57 for diesel and P5.85 for kerosene.

The rollback reflects easing supply concerns following increased oil flows from Saudi Arabia.