El Niño’s next big update lands on one date – and it’s coming fast

The ENSO Reference Group has confirmed a date to deliver its next major update.

It’s the panel of experts from SAWS, the Agricultural Research Council and leading universities that’s been tracking this year’s El Niño.

The group will host its 2026 El Niño Summit on 10 September.

There, it plans to provide a more detailed picture of how the event is developing.

What the summit will actually cover

The update will look at the event’s development, manifestation, and forecast.

It will also review the extreme weather this year has already brought, including the unusually dry July in the winter rainfall region and recent extreme summer weather in the Northern Hemisphere.

The group stresses that each El Niño behaves differently. Other oceanic and atmospheric processes can amplify or reduce its local impacts, meaning genuine uncertainty still surrounds exactly how hard South Africa gets hit.

Why this date matters more than the headlines so far

Most reporting on this El Niño so far has focused on forecasts: probabilities, outlooks, and comparisons to past events.

This summit is different. It’s the point where the same experts driving those forecasts sit down and say, in effect, “here’s where things actually stand now.”

The group has also urged the public to rely on credible sources and avoid sensationalised reporting in the meantime, a pointed reminder given how much speculation this event has already generated.

Eish, it’s hectic watching a slow-moving story like this build toward an actual date. I’ll be covering whatever comes out of it the moment it lands.

Are you holding off on any summer plans until we get more clarity from this summit?