Argentina posts second straight month of inflation below 2%

Monthly inflation in Argentina accelerated in line with expectations in September, still notching its second straight month below a symbolic threshold. 

Consumer prices rose 1.9 percent last month, in line with the median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. From a year ago, annual inflation ticked down to 33.4 percent, according to government data published Tuesday. 

Utilities and education led price increases last month, while food costs, the most weighted category, was just above the headline figure.  

Inflation continues to be President Javier Milei’s top focus and accomplishment since taking office three years ago when annual price increases were in the triple digits. However, measures taken to tame inflation – a stronger exchange rate, tight monetary policy and fiscal austerity – have also hit economic growth. 

“Another sub-2% inflation reading in Argentina cements the recent moderation but leaves a pressing question open: Is the trade-off on growth worth it? We think the real appreciation underpinning the trend will be hard to sustain, and don’t expect disinflation to persist in coming quarters. Still, downside risks to our less sanguine forecasts have increased.’
– Jimena Zuniga, Argentina Economist for Bloomberg Economics

Argentina’s economy contracted in the second quarter and economists surveyed by the Central Bank last month anticipate another decline in the third quarter, which would mark a technical recession. Argentina is expected to post overall growth of 1.5 percent in 2026, about half the figure investors had penciled in at the start of the year. 

Monthly inflation is forecast to hover between 1.6 percent to 1.8 percent through March 2027, according to the Central Bank’s survey. Price increases are expected to cool by the end of this year to 30 percent on an annual basis.