What Hanson's Victorian campaign absence says about One Nation

The national consensus is that One Nation will be electorally tested in the giant Petri dish of Victoria at the state election in under two weeks' time.

So, it is becoming increasingly unusual that Pauline Hanson has spent so little time on the hustings down south.

But maybe it's not so weird when you look at the political reality.

This week Barnaby Joyce, One Nation's star federal recruit, will be in Victoria on the campaign trail.

But Joyce is keen to downplay his party's expectations.

The orange tsunami is not coming in Victoria is his message, and he explains that Labor's potentially cataclysmic performance will bizarrely help the Liberals, not One Nation.

"Victoria will be difficult [for us] because of the socialist [Labor] being so unpopular that their preference flows will help the Coalition," he told this column.

"If Labor comes third in many electorates, their preferences will flow to the Coalition, not One Nation, if people follow Labor how-to-vote cards.

"People need to understand that if they follow the Labor how-to-vote card, they will be electing the Coalition over One Nation."

Why has Hanson largely stayed out of Victoria?

One Nation is running candidates in every lower house seat. But the resurgent party's greatest political asset has not been a central figure in its campaign.

Hanson's presence has been that of an omnipotent leader. As the party's cultural figurehead, her physical presence isn't required to play that role.

There's often talk about what happens to One Nation when Hanson eventually retires.

Victoria looks increasingly like a test of the One Nation brand with less Hanson and more locally based identities.

If One Nation genuinely believed it was on the cusp of winning a swag of lower house seats, you would expect to see more Hanson.

RedBridge director and former deputy director of the Victorian Liberal Party Tony Barry says Hanson's low profile in the Victorian campaign has been notable.

"More than any other political party, One Nation's brand and electoral fortunes are inextricably tied to its leader," he told this column.

"We are entering the third week of the Victorian campaign and Pauline Hanson has only been on the ground once [since the formal campaign started] and that was in the electorate of Murray Plains."

According to Barry, Hanson's limited visibility suggests One Nation's internal polling is showing fewer winnable Victorian seats on the table than the political hype might suggest.

"If I were a One Nation candidate in a key seat, I'd be very frustrated and concerned that Pauline Hanson wasn't campaigning on the ground with me," Barry said.

"Leader visits are very important to not only meet and greet voters but also to energise your campaign volunteers and donors."

But could there be another possibility for Hanson's absence?

Given the party has gained much of its attention and appeal to voters for breaking with tradition, has the party extended that approach to dispensing with running a conventional campaign in Victoria?

Candidates have reportedly paid $5,500 towards their own campaign material, while One Nation has spent just $21,300 on advertising on Meta since September 1 compared with $2.81 million by Labor and about $550,000 by the Liberals.

The low-frills spending plus Hanson's low-key role could serve as insurance if voters don't rush to embrace One Nation.

One Nation vote softening

RedBridge polling has registered that in recent weeks the soft edge of One Nation's vote is showing signs of fatigue.

That may explain why One Nation is keeping Hanson's campaign appearances to regional parts of the state and targeting National-held seats.

Her recent visit to Murray Plains put her smack bang in the Nationals' heartland, reinforcing claims One Nation is on a march to decimate the Nationals from the Australian electoral map.

Its upper house preference card leaves the Coalition out of its recommended five in northern Victoria.

Looking to the surrounds of Melbourne, One Nation puts smaller parties on the right ahead of the Liberals.

One Nation is very likely to hold the balance of power in the Victorian Legislative Council. The party is on track to win at least eight upper house seats and could win up to 12 if current polling holds up. 

If they hold the balance of power in the upper house, is that a poor result?

Can it take traditional voters away from Labor? Can it finish ahead of the Liberal candidate, then use Liberal preferences to win the seat? In regional Victoria, can it push the Nationals into third and inherit their preferences?

The Victorian election is the first substantive test for One Nation and the Coalition, but its main game is likely to be the New South Wales election in March, where they are well placed to become the official opposition party and dominant party on the right in Australia's largest state.

These state elections offer real evidence for both parties on how to take advantage of the nation's preferential voting system.

Hanson will be at the One Nation event on election night in Victoria to frame the story of the result and declare if Jess Wilson wins, it is off the back of One Nation voters.

She will not accept the narrative that One Nation has tanked.

One Nation's real challenge will be to work out how to be electorally successful if Labor voters consistently preference against them, aiding the Liberals.

Patricia Karvelas is host of ABC News Afternoon Briefing at 4pm weekdays on ABC News Channel, co-host of the weekly Party Room podcast with Fran Kelly and host of politics and news podcast Politics Now.