Your home heating oil bill is likely to jump this winter. Here's why.

Americans who use heating oil to warm their homes are likely to face a sharp spike in utility costs this winter as the Iran war drives up global energy prices, according to a new forecast.

The National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA), a nonprofit policy organization, estimates that households that use heating oil to power their furnaces and boilers will pay an average of nearly $2,300 in total for the four-month stretch between mid-November and mid-March 2027 — up more than 30% compared to last year. 

Heating oil costs are climbing due to the slowdown in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Mark Wolfe, an energy economist and the executive director of NEADA.

"While the war may be thousands of miles away, families will feel it when the heating oil truck pulls into their driveways," Wolfe told CBS News, adding that Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure are also depleting global oil supplies and contributing to the run-up in energy prices. 

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), nearly all of the heating oil used in American homes is derived from crude oil, which is refined into a range of petroleum products. 

Brent crude, the international standard, traded at roughly $106 a barrel on Tuesday. That's up more than 30% since the war erupted in late February. Oil prices are likely to stay elevated after a drone attack on a critical pipeline in Saudi Arabia disrupted oil flows, Eurasia Group, a global political risk research and consulting firm, said in a report on Monday. 

As of 2024, nearly 4.8 million homes in the U.S. used heating oil, according to EIA. About 82% of those homes are located in the Northeast, making that area particularly vulnerable to price fluctuations. Electricity is also typically more expensive in that region, NEADA notes.

Americans who use heating oil aren't the only ones who should expect utility costs to climb. NEADA estimates that households will spend an average of $1,030 to heat their homes, up 8.7%, or $82, from last year. 

The cost of heating homes that use heat pumps, furnaces and other electric-powered sources has surged 35% over the last five years, according to NEADA. That comes as a data center buildout places more pressure on the nation's power grid and as repairs for aging power infrastructure drive up costs.

Some of the cost increases this winter will be mitigated by an El Niño weather pattern, which typically brings warmer-than-normal conditions, reducing the need for heat, NEADA said.