Bowl projections: Projecting all 47 games as parity reigns ahead of first CFP Rankings release

Is there any team in college football this season interested in restoring order at the top of the sport?

Parity is just the way we like it as we head into Tuesday night's first College Football Playoff Rankings release after another wild weekend across the Power Four, including USC's upset of Ohio State, Miami's escape at North Carolina and Georgia's clobbering of Florida.

No favorite is safe during the season's final month, with various SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 title scenarios tossed in a blender with four games to play before conference championship weekend and Selection Sunday.

We've updated our bowl and playoff projections for all 47 games this postseason, including major changes with the CFP's top-12 and a couple of new teams added to the bowl-eligible discussion.

Cricket Celebration

Projection: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State 

San Juan Bowl

Projection: Clemson vs. Marshall 

Salute to Veterans

Projection: UAB vs. Miami (Ohio)

After Saturday's 20-point loss at USF, the next two games are season-defining for the Blazers if their end game is playing an extra game in December. UAB hosts Charlotte before going to Philadelphia to play Temple, two teams the Blazers should be favored against. Miami (Ohio) has won three straight and hosts Buffalo on Tuesday night in a high-stakes game for the top of the MAC.

Frisco Football Classic

Projection: Buffalo vs. Louisiana

Speaking of those Bulls, they ride a three-game winning streak into Tuesday night's showdown and had an extra week to prep for the Redhawks. Five of Buffalo's eight games this fall have been decided by a single possession, and that'll be the expectation this week in Oxford, Ohio, when MACtion commences.

Boca Raton 

Projection: Liberty vs. Tulsa

Gasparilla

Projection: USF vs. Duke

Five touchdowns from running back Nate Sheppard pushed the Blue Devils to bowl eligibility against Boston College and keeps Duke's faint repeat title hopes in the ACC alive entering Week 10. Duke makes the short trip to NC State across town next week before playing Miami, Clemson and Wake Forest to finish the campaign. Win out and the Blue Devils are back in the league championship after SMU's loss at Syracuse was damaging in the standings.

Myrtle Beach

Projection: Penn State vs. Arkansas State

Finally, the Nittany Lions have a Big Ten win. They still need two more wins over the last quarter of the campaign to reach the postseason, but should get there with Rutgers and Maryland — the Big Ten's worst squads — over the final two weeks. Since we're expecting more Big Ten bowl-eligible teams than conference tie-ins in December, expect some fluctuation for the league's 6-6 quads like Penn State. Myrtle Beach weather a few days before Christmas is usually mild, and visiting fans can get some quality shopping in before returning home for the holidays.

Puerto Rico 

Projection: UMass vs. South Alabama

Potato 

Projection: UNLV vs. Western Michigan

Cure 

Projection: JMU vs. Ohio

JMU's second straight setback under Billy Napier has taken the Dukes out of the CFP conversation entirely in the Sun Belt. Consecutive walk-off field goals are gut-wrenching for a squad that started the season 7-0 and now has many questioning if JMU will still win the conference. 

Independence 

Projection: West Virginia vs. UConn

The Mountaineers' rushing attack has been borderline unstoppable this season, with Cam Cook and Michael Hawkins combining for 1,759 yards and 23 scores. Unfortunately, West Virginia's defense is the Big 12's worst across multiple categories, and that's why the Mountaineers are 5-3. With matchups left against three of the league's four best teams, the Mountaineers will get a chance to play spoiler.

New Orleans

Projection: Appalachian State vs. Jacksonville State

After blanking New Mexico State on Wednesday night, the Gamecocks won their fifth straight and moved to 4-0 in Conference USA. Quarterback Caden Creel came off a career-best 211 yards rushing and helped Jacksonville State gallop its way to a season-high 324 yards, eclipsing its previous best of 276 against Middle Tennessee.

Poinsettia 

Projection: Fresno State vs. Arizona State

Armed Forces 

Projection: Memphis vs. Kansas State 

After an inexplicable loss against previously winless Colorado (in the Big 12), Kansas State may need to win Farmageddon with Iowa State during rivalry weekend later this month to decide who goes bowling. Rolling through the American with four wins in its last five games, Memphis is three wins away from getting back to the conference championship game under first-year coach Charles Huff, who might be poached by a bigger job this cycle.

Frisco Bowl

Projection: North Texas vs. Illinois

One more win and the Fighting Illini will go bowling and, like Penn State, they're going to be one of the Big Ten teams we're expecting to play in a non-traditional matchup this season given the wealth of bowl-eligible squads in a couple of weeks. 

Hawaii

Projection: North Dakota State vs. Texas State

New Mexico 

Projection: Wyoming vs. UTSA

Mayo

Projection: Louisville vs. Minnesota

Three-point losses to NC State and Wake Forest ended the Cardinals' ACC hopes this fall, but Jeff Brohm's squad has won three straight since, including Saturday's 52-24 triumph over Stanford after trailing in the first half. Minnesota had a chance to beat defending national champion Indiana but squandered a go-ahead 60-yard field goal in the final seconds and lost in overtime. That one's tough to swallow for P.J. Fleck and staff.

Pinstripe

Projection: North Carolina vs. Wisconsin

The Badgers played themselves out of a potential trip to Orlando and Tampa as a top-end Big Ten finisher after getting clobbered at Iowa. Did anyone see that one coming? Winning out to finish with nine wins could reverse course, and it's possible given the favorable slate. Still, the up-and-down showing week to week from this offense has been frustrating for Luke Fickell and a team lacking explosion on that side of the football in recent weeks.

68 Ventures 

Projection: Air Force vs. Louisiana Tech

Louisiana Tech is another team hitting its stride at the right time with a pair of shutouts during this unbeaten start in the Sun Belt. The combination of quarterback Blake Baker and ball carrier Andrew Burnette has caught fire in recent weeks offensively for the Bulldogs.

Fenway 

Projection: Stanford vs. Tulane

Cactus 

Projection: Michigan vs. Cincinnati

Wolverines freshman quarterback Tommy Carr accounted for three touchdowns, including this offense's first scoring toss of October, during Saturday's 28-21 win at Rutgers. Michigan's one win away from getting to bowl eligibility and gets a rivalry opponent (Michigan State) next week before playing Oregon, UCLA and Ohio State to finish it out.

Cincinnati's bid to knock off consecutive top-15 unbeatens in the Big 12 was quickly squashed against Utah after the Utes scored touchdowns on their first three possessions on the road. Cincinnati and Michigan have only met once previously, that coming during the 2017 season in Ann Arbor.

Birmingham

Projection: Auburn vs. Syracuse

Auburn stays in this week's bowl projections despite evening its record to 4-4 following a blowout loss at Ole Miss. Mississippi State, however, falls out after losing quarterback Kamario Taylor for the season. If the Bulldogs fail to beat Vanderbilt in Week 10, chances are high a five-win season is coming despite a 4-0 start and top-20 ranking. Syracuse enters the mix for the first time after its upset of SMU inside the Carrier Dome. Fran Brown's team has found something over the last two weeks after beating North Carolina in overtime and now this!

Military

Projection: Virginia vs. Army

The Cavaliers are playing with fire, with four losses over their last five games, including Saturday's embarrassing 44-point setback against Wake Forest. At 4-5 overall, Virginia needs to beat California and North Carolina at home so its rivalry bout in Blacksburg against Virginia Tech is not postseason-deciding.

Pop-Tarts

Projection: Wake Forest vs. Houston

The Demon Deacons' reward for potentially being an 11-win, two-loss team as the runner-up to Miami in the ACC comes in the form of a Pop-Tarts destination in a top-20 matchup. Wake Forest has outscored its last four league opponents 187-31, the largest point differential in a Power Four league for any team this season. 

Virginia Tech is another ACC team that will be up for this one. The Hokies last played at this site to end the 2017 season against Oklahoma State in the Camping World Bowl. For Houston, the Cougars will be one of the Big 12's highest-ranked non-CFP finishers and get rewarded with one of the top bowl games outside of the top-12.

Alamo

Projection: USC vs. Texas Tech

Disclaimer: We're not sleeping on USC entering November. The Trojans' win over Ohio State was potentially season-changing for Lincoln Riley, and three more wins undoubtedly put USC in the 12-team bracket. USC takes on Indiana and UCLA over the next few weeks, so the opportunity to shine is there — and that's all you want at this point as a two-loss at-large hopeful.

That was a crucial bounce-back win for the Red Raiders, whose quest to repeat as Big 12 champions remained very much in play after taking out Arizona. Texas Tech tried to breathe new life into its offense with Thomas Castellanos going the distance at quarterback, and it worked beautifully as the Red Raiders rushed for 328 yards. 

Gator 

Projection: Pittsburgh vs. Florida

Panthers and Gators in the Gator Bowl? There's some bite to that potential matchup, especially with Florida getting a postseason stage practically in its backyard. Jacksonville's EverBank Stadium will host the game in December, but next year's game is scheduled for Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville due to ongoing renovations. This pairing would give both programs plenty to play for beyond another postseason participation trophy — like offseason momentum. The Panthers and Gators have met once all-time, and it ended in a 17-all tie in 1977.

Music City

Projection: Nebraska vs. Oklahoma

This matchup sells itself for organizers given the rivalry between the two former Big 12 programs. Forget the CFP disappointment or whatever opportunities slipped away during the regular season for the Huskers and Sooners — beating an old rival gives December football some juice. Sign us up for a little nostalgia with stakes.

ReliaQuest 

Projection: Northwestern vs. Ole Miss

Very much in the SEC's CFP discussion, Ole Miss moves back in our projected bracket next week if the Rebels take out Georgia. That's one of a bevy of top-15 games on Nov. 7, which might be the single most impactful Saturday in the playoff era. More on that next week, but for now, Ole Miss is simply trying to get to 10 wins, which would all but guarantee a berth. Leading Oregon by 10 points midway through the third quarter, Northwestern squandered its lead and saw a shot at a quality road win evaporate the following quarter after Dakorien Moore's 75-yard reception. The Wildcats (6-2) had a chance to be a CFP dark horse with a strong finish, but this one diminishes those hopes.

Sun 

Projection: SMU vs. Arizona 

SMU squandered an opportunity to stay in the CFP race with a dreadful loss to Syracuse. The Mustangs were in control of their own destiny in the ACC with only one loss before Week 9's gaffe and will now be unranked exiting the weekend. The Wildcats' five-game winning streak is over despite 417 yards passing from Noah Fifita at Texas Tech. These two programs met during bowl season last fall in San Diego at the Holiday.

Las Vegas

Projection: Oregon vs. South Carolina

The Ducks and Gamecocks have never played, and there's plenty of South Carolina fans who would make the trip out West to watch a team that has caught fire since an 0-3 start to the SEC slate. Saturday's drubbing at Oklahoma was the Gamecocks' third straight win under Shane Beamer, who has coached himself off the hot start and could be the highest-ranked three-loss team in Tuesday's first CFP reveal. South Carolina would love to have those losses against Mississippi State and Kentucky back right now after the Gamecocks led by two scores in both contests.

Texas

Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Tennessee

The Vols' first postseason game in the Lone Star State in two decades? Fans would be pleased, we think, especially since Tennessee has only matched up with Oklahoma State once (1995) in program history. It'll take some getting over not making the CFP after late-season losses to South Carolina and either Kentucky or LSU, however. First-year coach Eric Morris and the Cowboys were an upset victim at Iowa State on Saturday night in an epic finish, but his rebuild is ahead of schedule in Stillwater.

Citrus

Projection: Iowa vs. Alabama

Take your pick, Orlando. The Citrus gets first dibs on Big Ten and SEC teams not in the CFP this season, and that committee will have a wealth of options. That said, Alabama against Iowa comes with a familiar question: How motivated will the Crimson Tide be after missing the playoff? That's going to be a popular narrative throughout December for several projected three-loss SEC squads. Iowa wouldn't need an invitation to make this uncomfortable, by the way. The Hawkeyes would welcome a game built around field position and forcing Alabama to earn every possession.

First Responder

Projection: Baylor vs FAU

Liberty

Projection: UCF vs. Missouri

From the thrills of upsetting BYU to a shockingly bad effort inside the same stadium the following week against Baylor. That's how the cookie crumbled Saturday for Scott Frost. Now, it's either UCF (4-4) or Iowa State (4-4) in this spot for the Big 12, and the two teams play one another on Friday, Nov. 20 at the Bounce House in Orlando. We're giving the Knights the slightest of edges at home. Missouri's remaining schedule is far too difficult to consider the Tigers a legitimate playoff threat from the SEC.

Arizona 

Projection: Toledo vs. New Mexico

Unbeaten in the Mountain West following Saturday's win at San Jose State, Jason Eck's Lobos are applying direct pressure to Boise State in the Group of Six race. If the Broncos win out and take the Pac-12, that should be enough to get there. Keep an eye on Tuesday's first CFP top 25 to see which of these teams — or perhaps Oregon State — is slotted inside the rankings. 

Holiday

Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Oregon State

We're expecting the Hokies to get to at least eight — potentially nine victories — this season to finish James Franklin's first campaign with a trip to San Diego or Orlando. One of the few teams still near the top of the Group of Six CFP argument entering Week 9, the Beavers are now out of the picture after falling to Fresno State, 38-22, on Saturday night. Oregon State's only previous losses came during the first and second weeks of the season to Texas Tech and Houston. This would be a great matchup between ranked teams, and if you haven't seen Jesse Legree star for the Beavers, well, here's your opportunity.

College Football Playoff 

First round

Projection: (12) Boise State (5) Indiana

Boise State is lucky to be left standing as the Group of Six favorite after Week 9. The Broncos blew a 25-point halftime lead against Texas State before rallying to win 46-45 thanks to backup quarterback Max Cutforth's three touchdown passes in the final seven minutes in relief of injured starter Maddux Madsen. Add another potential CFP team with injury issues at the most important position on the field.

Let's give credit where it's due here after Indiana played a "C" game at home and still managed to force overtime and beat Minnesota despite a change at quarterback. However, the dam's taking on water and will break this season. It may not happen until the CFP, but it will. In this case, it actually helps the Hoosiers to not reach the Big Ten title game should Indiana, UCLA and Ohio State win out. They'll get an extra week to prepare for their first-round CFP opponent and won't have to deal with injury worries in a 13th game.

Projection: (11) Notre Dame at (6) Kentucky

How did we arrive at Notre Dame as the last team in? Since the loss to BYU, we're keeping the Fighting Irish as a 10-win finisher and getting the final bid over a three-loss USC squad or another three-loss SEC at-large selection because of its CFP assurance. In Week 9, Notre Dame made the most of limited possessions against Navy and swatted the Midshipmen's upset bid in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Navy held possession for 24 minutes in the opening half only to be down a point at intermission before Notre Dame seized control thereafter. Considering all of us thought the Fighting Irish's game against SMU in a few weeks would be a quality win chance, that loss by the stands at Syracuse is not what Notre Dame needed.

Kentucky knows what it has to do to reach the CFP: win two of its final three SEC matchups and beat Louisville. That would mean 10 wins, likely a spot in the SEC title game and a near auto-berth in the 12-team bracket. The Wildcats have played with extreme confidence all season long under a first-year coach, and how about this matchup: ex-Notre Dame quarterback Kenny Minchey against his former program.

Projection: (10) Texas at (7) Ohio State

The first of a couple multi-loss SEC teams in this week's projection, the Longhorns will get to the CFP as long as they reach nine wins, which would include previous victories this season over Ohio State, Ole Miss, Tennessee and either Missouri or LSU over the next few weeks. That resume should lead the country in quality wins as long as those teams remain in the rankings.

How will the selection committee judge the Buckeyes this week after the second loss and the offense looking considerably less explosive without Julian Sayin at quarterback? Injuries matter, and this one's particularly weighty. Winning out puts Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, but can the Buckeyes do it? It's going to take the best coaching job of Ryan Day's tenure over the final four games. In this scenario, we have Ohio State getting to Indianapolis but ultimately losing the conference title game to UCLA.

Projection: (9) LSU at (8) BYU

Sticking with last week's matchup in the 9-8 game, BYU survived Arizona State's upset bid while LSU was open in Week 9. The Tigers host Alabama in a game with significant CFP magnitude next weekend, while BYU-Utah could be the Big 12's game of the year up to this point.

Quarterfinals

PEACH BOWL — Projection: (9) LSU vs. (1) Miami

The Hurricanes got out of Halloween at North Carolina alive — barely. That sets up next week's much-anticipated showdown at Notre Dame in a game that should captivate the selection committee. Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney should be 1-2 in the Heisman race when updated odds are out this weekend after Jeremiah Smith and Ohio State's loss in Los Angeles.

COTTON BOWL — Projection: (10) Texas vs. (2) Georgia

The Bulldogs squashed Florida in Atlanta and should be rewarded for it. That comes in the form of a 2-seed as our projected SEC champion for the fifth consecutive week. Georgia's trip to Ole Miss next week is another barometer game down the stretch in the conference, but for now, we're expecting the Bulldogs to be, at worst, No. 2 in Tuesday's first CFP Rankings.

ROSE BOWL — Projection: (11) Notre Dame vs. (3) Utah

Stop the count! Utah passed the eye test with pizzazz at Cincinnati to stay unbeaten, a week after the Bearcats handed Texas Tech its lone loss. The Utes erupted for 42 first-half points on a near-perfect showing from quarterback Devon Dampier and should have left a lasting image for the selection committee ahead of their first rankings reveal.

FIESTA BOWL — Projection: (5) Indiana vs. (4) UCLA

Anyone interested in predicting the Big Ten champion at this point? The Buckeyes' loss at USC tosses UCLA as the projected winner in Week 10 after the Bruins improved to 8-0. So far, they've been upset-proof, and few other contenders can say that in recent weeks.