NFL survivor pool picks, knockout strategy, advice for Week 5, 2026: Fade the Pittsburgh Steelers

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SportsLine's advanced computer model just locked in its top Week 5 NFL survivor picks

Oct 6, 2026 at 9:57 am ET • 3 min read

For those participants who have made it through to Week 5 of their NFL Survivor Pool, another challenging week awaits as several rivalry games highlight this week's action. Among them include Bears at Packers (+2.5), Giants at Commanders (-3.5), Broncos at Chargers (+3.5) and 49ers at Seahawks (-3). Other top games featured include Colts at Steelers (-2.5), Raiders at Patriots (-3.5), Browns at Jets (-1.5), Vikings at Saints (+1.5) and Ravens at Falcons (+3.5) on 'Sunday Night Football,' and Bills at Rams (-2.5) on 'Monday Night Football.' Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $55 bonus after $25+ in trades with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55:

Meanwhile no Sunday game has a larger NFL spread to consider for Week 5 NFL knockout picks than Bengals vs. Dolphins (+7.5). The game takes place in Miami. The Dolphins are coming off a five-point loss at Minnesota, while the Bengals lost at home to Jacksonville. Still, there are a few other games that NFL survivor players are considering such as Texans vs. Titans (+7). Before making any Week 5 NFL survivor pool picks or NFL knockout pool picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season on a 55-44 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns. It nailed its Week 4 survivor pick, picking the Ravens to beat the Titans.

Now, it has turned its attention to the Week 5 NFL schedule and locked in its Week 5 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine. 

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Top Week 5 NFL survivor pool predictions 

In Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season, the model is not confident in the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are 2.5-point and -135 money-line favorites at the best betting apps against the Colts at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh on Sunday. Pittsburgh has been up-and-down, posting a win over the struggling Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3 and a banged-up Atlanta Falcons team missing their starting quarterback in the season opener. In between that, they have losses at New England and Cleveland.

The Steelers are led by aging veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has completed just 57.5% of his passes for 999 yards and seven touchdowns and four interceptions. Jaylen Warren leads the Pittsburgh ground attack with 55 carries for 309 yards (5.6 average), but no touchdowns. He does have three explosive plays of 20 or more yards, including a long of 35. 

The Colts are led by Daniel Jones at quarterback. He is completing 63.6% of his passes for 754 yards and three touchdowns and four picks. Running back Jonathan Taylor has carried 86 times for 353 yards (4.1 average) and six touchdowns. SportsLine's model is projecting a 2-point game, making Pittsburgh a risky survivor play this week as it wins just 47% of the time. See which team to pick instead here. 

How to make Week 5 NFL survivor pool picks 

Instead, the model is confidently backing a team many have not used in survivor pools to win outright in 70% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 5 NFL survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 5, all from the advanced computer model that nails survivor picks and is up well over $7,000 since its inception.