Rhyne Howard's brutal shooting slump has Dream in WNBA Finals hole: How the star can bounce back in Game 2

If the Dream are going to even up the series with the Valkyries on Monday night, Howard must step up

Oct 19, 2026 at 10:38 am ET • 5 min read

SAN FRANCISCO -- Rhyne Howard dribbled this way and that, trying desperately to shake Veronica Burton as the last 20 seconds of Game 1 of the 2026 WNBA Finals ticked away on Saturday. But even a screen from Angel Reese was no use, and Howard eventually had to toss the ball to Allisha Gray, who airballed a 3-pointer that sealed the Dream's fate in an eventual 68-64 loss to the Golden State Valkyries.

Howard's inability to create space on that possession did not register on the stat sheet, but it highlighted the four-time All-Star's continued struggles in the postseason. The Dream were able to withstand her poor shooting nights in the first two rounds of the playoffs, but need her to figure things out if they want to comeback from this 1-0 deficit and win the first title in franchise history. 

Howard finished Game 1 with as many turnovers as made field goals, and scored just 12 points on 3 of 14 from the field in the second-lowest postseason scoring performance of her career. Notably, she was 0 of 4 in the fourth quarter as the Dream let a seven-point lead slip away. 

Dating back to the start of the semifinals, Howard is averaging 16.8 points on 20 of 75 (26.7%) shooting overall, including 9 of 33 (27.3%) from 3-point range. She wasn't much better in the first round. Here are her splits between the regular season and playoffs:

Period	PPG	FG%	3FG%	TS%
Regular season	17.7	40.5	35.5	55.9%
Playoffs	18	30.7	30.2	46.2%

Howard has never been the most efficient player -- she shot above 40% this season for the first time in her career -- but even by her standards the last four games have been shocking. She spoke briefly to the media after Game 1, but did not address her own poor shooting. 

Speaking more broadly, Howard said that the Valkyries "forced us into a version of basketball that we don't play" and said that the Dream would have to "watch some tough film and go back and make some adjustments." Dream coach Karl Smesko noted that he liked one of the looks Howard got late, but otherwise did not specifically speak about Howard's struggles. 

The Dream and the Valkyries both cancelled practice on Sunday and shootaround on Monday, which meant we were unable to speak to Howard, or anyone else in between Games 1 and 2. In lieu of any insight from their end, let's dive into the tape and the numbers to see what's gone wrong for Howard lately, and how the Dream could get her back on track against an elite Valkyries defense. 

The jumper isn't falling

Howard is primarily a jump shooter. Her 8.8 3-point attempts per game this season were actually down from her record-setting 9.6 last season, but she once again led the league in attempts and had an absurd .613 3-point attempt rate. In the playoffs, she's cut back slightly, putting up 7.2 attempts per game and registering a .426 3-point attempt rate. 

Unfortunately for her and the Dream, her efficiency has also dropped significantly. If you dig deeper into Howard's shooting splits, an interesting trend emerges: nearly the entire decline has come from off-the-dribble attempts. Over the last four games, she hasn't made a single off-the-dribble 3, and her off-the-dribble mid-range game has been brutal. 

Period	OTD 2FG%	OTD 3FG%	C&S 3FG%
Regular season	37.3%	30.2%	37.9%
Last 4 playoff games	23.5%	0%	37.5%

The obvious question, then, is can the Dream generate more catch-and-shoot looks for Howard? They certainly tried in Game 1. Her eight catch-and-shoot attempts from 3 were her most in a game this postseason, and her most in any game since Aug. 30, but she went 2 of 8. 

If they can't get her more catch-and-shoot looks, can they get her cleaner ones? That's always possible, though it's easier said than done against the Valkyries. Smesko tried just about everything in Game 1. He had Howard set screens off the ball, ran her off flare screens and pindowns and specifically drew up a play late in the fourth quarter to get her coming toward the ball off a screen from Reese. 

And yet, Howard's two best looks came from unscripted plays: a drive-and-kick by Jordin Canada and a hit-ahead in transition from Allisha Gray. 

That gets back to Howard's point about the Valkyries forcing the Dream "into a version of basketball that we don't play." The Dream are at their best when they can play with some pace, but spent much of Game 1 slogging through halfcourt sets despite getting plenty of stops. 

Pushing the action will surely be an emphasis for Game 2. Even if the Dream cannot generate pure transition looks, getting the ball up the floor more quickly creates advantages that will benefit everyone, including Howard. Just take the Canada-to-Howard sequence, for example. The Dream don't race up the floor there, but they move with intention after getting a stop, which forces the Valkyries into a cross-match. Cecilia Zandalasini ends up on Canada instead of Veronica Burton, and Canada gets the blow-by, which collapses the defense and creates a wide-open shot for Howard. 

Not getting anything easy

If the majority of Howard's looks are jumpers, naturally that means she's not getting to the rim very often. During the regular season, Howard's 106 field goal attempts at the rim ranked 58th in the league. On a per-game basis, she (2.4 attempts) was getting to the rim less frequently than Courtney Vandersloot (2.7 attempts).  

To her credit, Howard did significantly improve her finishing this season. She shot 62.3% at the rim, up from a staggeringly poor 48.8% last season and an even worse 45.1% in 2024. 

As her shot has deserted her in the playoffs, Howard has been more insistent on getting to the basket, and is averaging four attempts at the rim. Her finishing has reverted, however. She's shooting 35.7% at the rim in the playoffs, including 7 of 21 (33.3%) in the last four games. 

There's little hope for improvement against the Valkyries. During the regular season, the Valkyries allowed the fewest shots at the rim and held opponents to the worst field goal percentage on such attempts. In the playoffs, they've been even better. 

Period	Opp. Rim FGA / G	Opp. Rim FG%
Regular Season	22.5	54%
Playoffs	19.4	53.7%

In Game 1, the Dream did manage to create 25 attempts at the rim, but they shot 44%. Howard's lone effort was emphatically rejected by Kaila Charles. 

Howard is a poor isolation player who struggles to break opponents down off the dribble, as we saw against Burton on the Dream's penultimate possession, and her off-ball movement is perimeter-based. Atlanta doesn't do a ton of cutting, but they could try to run something early in Game 2 to get Howard moving toward the basket, though the way the Valkyries swarm to the ball makes that difficult. 

Ultimately, the best cure for Howard's issues at the rim is the same as the best cure for her jump shot woes: transition. The more the Dream can run and play against a scrambled Valkyries defense, the easier life will be for Howard and everyone else.