Sara, Leni gap narrows – OCTA

Vice President Sara Duterte and Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo

composite imag PNA / Joan Bondoc; The STAR / Noel Pabalate

MANILA, Philippines — The gap between Vice President Sara Duterte and Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo in a hypothetical presidential matchup in 2028 has narrowed to its closest in the latest OCTA Research group poll.

Based on the Sept. 28 to Oct. 4 survey, 40 percent of respondents said they would vote for Duterte if she ran against Robredo in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup in the 2028 presidential elections.

It dropped three points from the 43 percent she obtained in a similar survey in July.

Meanwhile, 33 percent said they would vote for Robredo.

In the previous poll, she obtained 34 percent.

Twenty-six percent were undecided, from 22 percent in the last survey.

According to OCTA, the gap between the two officials is now down to seven points, the lowest in the series of hypothetical matchups it conducted this year.

“VP Duterte’s seven-point lead is outside the plus/minus three-percent margin of error, and she leads in Class D, which carries the most weight in the national estimate, as well as in the Visayas and Mindanao,” the polling firm said.

“Her national share is lower in each of the three 2026 waves and the cumulative six-point difference is larger than the margin of error. This may indicate some softening in her support over the year, though three data points are not sufficient to establish a long-term trend,” it added.

The lower support for Duterte, however, did not translate to higher support for Robredo, with a sizeable bloc saying they were undecided if the two officials ran against each other.

Palace press officer Claire Castro said President Marcos is focused on more important issues affecting Filipinos rather than presidential surveys.