Opinion: Opinion | Is America Staring At A 'Blue Wave' Again? Why Trump Feels Threatened

There has rarely been an election, that too a mid-term, that has caused such interest the world over. But then, not often has there been a President who has caused so much damage to not just his own country, but to almost everyone he has dealt with - neighbours, allies, and friends alike. And the worst of it, even in the unlikely contingency that he is removed, the America that he crafted is not expected to change very much in the near future. It is not really about Trump. It is about an America that elected him to power, knowing full well that he escaped impeachment twice earlier. And it is about an America that has turned almost irrevocably to the right, becoming a flag-bearer of the dictum that might is right.

Luckily, it is not all Americans. Therein lies hope.

The Way The Cookie Crumbles

First, the mid-term electoral system is one that will see every seat in Congress going up for grabs, all 435 of them. In the Senate, just a third retire, which means that a total shift may be unlikely from the present Republican domination. Among the 35 states that go to vote for the Senate, about ten are heavily Republican-dominated, while another 10 lean towards Republicans. But those trends are usually for federal elections. US states, much like India's, tend to vote quite differently when it comes to Senatorial or Congressional seats. Overall, the latest poll puts the House solidly in Democrat hands, with top election prognosticator Cooks noting, "Republicans' path to keeping control of the House has all but evaporated. The outstanding question is how large Democrats' majority will be in 2027".

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Wonder of wonders, the so-called 'red-neck' states - like Texas - are leaning democrat, and Vivek Ramaswamy is probably going to lose in Ohio. But the point is this: while Democrats may inch into the Senate, there is no likelihood of getting a majority there, much less the two-thirds majority needed to impeach the President. The numbers just don't add up. So, Trump is going to continue. The point is whether his legislation will.

The Top Issues

The top issues in the race are not very different from those roiling Europe. Rising costs - oddly from the very tariffs that Trump has thrown recklessly around - are key. An earlier report from the New York Federal Reserve found that Trump's 2025-2026 tariffs caused a 2.9 percentage point increase in inflation on 67 categories of everyday consumer goods. That's rather a lot, and it is public information.

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Apart from costs alone, the state of the economy seems to be the top issue among all voters, according to the Pew Research Centre. A second vital issue is 'the future of democracy, though what that means may differ individually. Most see this through the lens of democratic backsliding, executive power concentration, and challenges to electoral outcomes - such as President Donald Trump's actions surrounding the 2020 election, rhetoric regarding political opponents, and concerns over authoritarian tendencies. In this, Trump's cavalier treatment of the press and the complete violation of basic 'American values' and media freedoms is hardly likely to be ignored. Even as media organisations united to take the issue of barring White House access to court, The Washington Post reported that the military is secretly hiring conservative influencers who appear to be pushing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's culture wars. Now that's the stuff of journalism. It is also what this government is all about. It is not a single extreme lobby. Trump & Co won by playing to an audience, and those folks are still out there.

The War On Immigrants

Which brings us to the question of immigration, visas, and, thereafter, a punchy, no-holds-barred "America first' foreign policy. On immigration, Pew worryingly notes that it has become an issue even with Democratic voters, who are more concerned today than they were four years ago (+17 percentage points). So, no, don't expect much change on that. Vice-President JD Vance's remarks about corporations profiting from paying immigrants less - which is true only in certain segments and professions - and the insult of calling them "foreign indentured servants", is the stuff of urban legends and seems to be gaining traction at a time of economic distress.

The reality is not quite that simple. Major Indian IT firms and global corporations have already begun to rely on expanded local hiring within the US, rather than imported visa holders. In addition, the H-1B visa programme addresses short-term skill gaps according to NASSCOM. But these are details. The point is that the whole thing plays into the immigration debate and fosters an image of the 'other'. Meanwhile, business houses have adjusted by building 'Global Capability Centres' - the in-country arms of multinational companies that run engineering, finance, and product work for the parent organisation in India - employing some 2.36 million professionals, according to industry reports in May 2026. Revenue from these centres reached $98.4 billion in FY26, up 32% since FY21. That's all very well, but expect that this 'stay here and work' model will continue. It pays both sides. And that's the way it is going to continue, midterms notwithstanding.

The Thing About Data Centres

Here's another interesting statistic. Pew Research reports also note that separate voters across the political spectrum dislike political leaders who support building data centres in areas near them: 61% say this, as against 8% in favour. This sentiment is particularly widespread among Democratic voters. A report by over 800 former employees of the Environmental Protection Agency warns that surging fossil-fuel demand (gas, coal, diesel) to power data centres could add $11.7 billion to $20.9 billion in annual public health costs, and huge premature deaths. Such centres are often sources of nitrogen oxide, which helps form ozone, carbon monoxide, and heavy metals, among other pollutants.

Meanwhile, Trump reacted typically to strong protests against this, with a new rule for the Environmental Protection Agency that would make public disclosure of pollution released voluntary at the state's and some local officials' discretion. Last year, US tech giants pledged a combined $67.5 billion to build massive artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud data centre infrastructure across India, turning it into one of their largest operational hubs outside the United States. Recent reports clarify that this is increasingly for overseas users, rather than India-owned data centres. Expect more of this movement and more protests in India against the massive diversion of farmland and already scarce water. In short, what is not environmentally permissible in the US will be shifted here. Trump wanted to keep them there. Democrats may not.

Foreign Policy

And finally, there's foreign policy. Judging from the Democrats' amendments to the National Defence Spending Authorization bill, which put constraints on how quickly the US could scale back commitments in Europe, NATO will probably have a marginally better time, though Trump's fulminations are expected to continue. There's the $1 billion for the Taiwan Security Cooperation Initiative that Trump has been pussy-footing, and more actual commitments might go through. Bipartisan support for Israel will continue, but expect a pushback on the unprecedented and across-the-board military integration with Israel. The budget was also delayed, given appropriations for Homeland Security, but nothing like the record-long 43-day shutdown last fall, during which the Pentagon furloughed 334,000 civilian employees. Much of the bureaucracy will hope that this remains firmly in the past.

The Quad, oddly enough something Trump backed in his first term, may see a reprieve as the House can be expected to be more aggressive towards China, and, with it, push for backing of India. Recently, Jim Himes, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, was backing restrictions on advanced chips as Washington's key leverage in the AI race. That attitude was particularly evident before Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to the US. But here's the thing. The framing so far has seen China being perceived more as a competitor than an enemy, a finding supported by Pew's polling.

On Russia, Democrats have been less than enthusiastic about the tariffs, but were equally critical when Trump did his characteristic reversal to allow Russian diesel to come in just before midterms. On tariffs overall, a report from Politico shows serious cracks, especially among export-dependent states.

For India, the good news is that Democrats have already shown their dislike of 'endless wars', though they remain insistent on supporting Ukraine. While leading democrats like Richard Blumenthal have been blistering about India buying Russian oil, Democrats have issued strong warnings on pushing India towards China due to a hostile tariff policy. The bad news is that one could expect a Democrat-dominated House to lecture India more on human rights and other such things. Trump didn't care. Some foreign policy mandarins might even miss him.

In the final analysis, the good news for everyone could be that the midterms could deliver a more predictable United States, with its checks and balances back in place. That's something. Foreign policy analysts can now go back to relying on data and historical precedent, rather than an Ouija board.

(Tara Kartha is a former Director, National Security Council Secretariat)