The Houthis have further tightened their grip on the Red Sea. Here’s what it could mean for the world

In recent days, the Houthi rebels in Yemen have moved with lightning speed along the Red Sea coast, taking control of the vital port of Mocha and strategic islands in the Red Sea near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

This strait is an important chokepoint along the sea route that connects the Mediterranean Sea with the Indian Ocean. With the on-and-off closure of the Strait of Hormuz this year, it has offered a critical alternate route for oil, liquefied natural gas, and other goods leaving or transiting the region.

Saudi Arabia, in particular, has diverted up to 64% of its oil exports via an overland east-west pipeline, transporting oil to its Yanbu Port on the Red Sea and shipping it out through Bab el-Mandeb.

Just days ago, this Saudi pipeline was hit by drones, spiking oil prices and causing damage that is estimated will take weeks to repair. The attacks reportedly came from Iraq, seemingly from an Iranian-backed militant group.

For now, Red Sea shipping appears to be continuing largely unaffected. This latest escalation suggests Iran and its allies are settling in for a long war. Here’s what that could mean for the world.

Another blow to oil markets

The Houthis’ strategic territorial gains come as a second blow to Saudi oil exports. Houthi advances are part of an ongoing civil war in Yemen between the Houthis, backed by Iran, and a Saudi-backed government, the Presidential Leadership Council.

From 2015 until a truce in 2022, Saudi Arabia was actively involved in a combined air and limited ground campaign in Yemen, fighting against the Houthis. The fragile truce has held until this year.

The Houthis have said their direct targets are Saudi Arabian vessels and Saudi oil. But countries across Europe, Asia and Africa rely on goods moving out of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

From the strategic position of Mocha, just 75 kilometres north of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Houthi rebels can disrupt and effectively control global shipping in and out of the strait.

Maritime traffic can be quickly ground to a halt, using light, asymmetric means such as drones, anti-ship missiles and fast attack boats.

Settling in for a long war

The Houthis doubling down on controlling a vital shipping route in the Red Sea marks a turning point in the ongoing war between the United States and Iran. It shows the Houthis, and by extension Iran, are not backing down from a long war with the US.

Although Iranian involvement was not directly stated, it is highly unlikely the Houthis would have acted without Iran’s approval. Iran and the Houthis now have a stranglehold over two vital waterways for global shipping.

The timing and strategic importance of Houthi gains does not seem a coincidence. It shows the Iranian regime is using leverage where it can, to maintain and increase pressure on the global economy, on the US and on neighbouring countries.

For global shipping, disruption is a new normal

Global supply chains have gone from being a complex operation to a high-risk, highly-vulnerable sector. Even before war broke out between the US and Iran earlier this year, a 2025 UN trade and development report had expected disruptions to continue until at least 2030 with rerouting of ships becoming commonplace.

The latest Houthi move shows an “erosion of US influence” over global shipping. On Saturday, US President Donald Trump said the Houthis had asked the US not to intervene. Trump also refused a request from the Saudi Crown Prince to join Saudi strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen.

With Bab el-Mandeb looking increasingly dangerous, countries in the region are likely to redouble efforts on constructing road and rail routes to transport goods out of the region.

This will take time to be fully functional, and will not support the same volume as maritime routes. Meanwhile, the global economy will still need to reorganise, with increased fuel prices and rising inflation.

Europe may be drawn into the fight

A full closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait may draw European allies into the war between the US and Iran, something they have so far avoided. European leaders have refused to join the US in a military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, or attempts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force.

Trump has criticised European leaders for reticence to join the US war with Iran.

However, when it comes to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the European Union is involved in protecting freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, with a defensive maritime operation.

An ongoing crisis in the Red Sea may draw them more directly into conflict with the Iranian-backed Houthis and, by extension, Iran.

Will the crisis escalate further?

Whether or not the crisis escalates will depend largely on Saudi and Houthi actions in coming weeks. According to Houthi media, Saudi Arabia has conducted air strikes this week on Mocha airport and other targets in Yemen.

If Saudi Arabia returns to an all-out bombing campaign, it will decisively break the 2022 truce with the Houthis.

Another important question is to what extent the Houthis will actually use their new strategic advantage over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to target vessels. In August this year, the Houthis targeted a cargo ship in the Red Sea, killing six people.

Will the Houthis attack vessels causing further loss of life? If yes, we are likely to see a response from Saudi Arabia, the EU and possibly the US.