Can Trump’s tariffs fund his $5,000 poll promise legally?

The US federal law prohibits payments intended to influence how a person votes.

Ahead of the November midterm elections, US President Donald Trump has offered to give every adult American $5,000 if Republicans win. His promise has raised questions over whether the proposal is legal, how it would be implemented and, most importantly, how the government would pay for it.

Trump made the offer at a Republican convention in Texas on Wednesday night, drawing applause from supporters. Democrats, however, dismissed it as an “empty promise”.

Trump said the money would have to be spent in the US, but it remains unclear how such a restriction would be enforced or monitored. It is also unclear whether Congress would approve the proposal or whether the administration has a concrete plan to distribute the money.

However, Vice-President JD Vance has suggested that the payments could be funded through revenue generated by tariffs.

Is the offer legal?

The US federal law prohibits payments intended to influence how a person votes. Some legal experts, however, believe the proposal could be viewed as a campaign promise to cut taxes or return money to citizens, rather than a direct payment in exchange for a vote.

Joan Mahoney, a lecturer in law at the University of Southampton, told the BBC that she believed the proposal would be legal, although she noted that politicians “don’t usually do it quite this explicitly”. “On the one hand it sounds a bit like a bribe, but on the other hand it would go to everyone, regardless of how they voted so it isn’t in that sense a bribe,” she said.

Laurel Rapp, director of the US and North America programme at Chatham House, offered a different assessment, telling the BBC that Trump’s proposal appeared to be “a very different, very transactional agreement” from the kind of promises normally made during an election campaign.

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The cost of it all

With nearly 270 million adults in the US, a $5,000 payment to every adult would cost the government roughly $1.3 trillion. This is equal to nearly 3% of the nation’s GDP.

That figure has raised doubts over whether such a plan could win congressional approval, particularly as the US continues to run large budget deficits. The long-running Iran war and the constant calls to increase defence procurement budget for the war also makes it an unviable poll promise.

Erica York, a senior economist at the Washington-based Tax Foundation, told the BBC she would be “extremely surprised” if Congress approved such a proposal.

Can tariffs pay for it?

Vice-President Vance has suggested that tariff revenue could finance the payments.

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But the numbers currently do not appear to add up.

According to the Bipartisan Policy Center, the US has collected around $475 billion in tariff and excise tax revenue since the beginning of 2025. More than $100 billion has subsequently been refunded after the Supreme Court struck down several of the administration’s tariffs earlier this year.

Even before accounting for other government spending, the revenue collected so far is therefore far below the roughly $1.3 trillion required for $5,000 payments to every adult American.

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