Petrol R30 a litre? October fuel shock worse than expected

South Africa’s motorists are facing the prospect of another major fuel-price increase in October, with the latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) data showing petrol and diesel under-recoveries deep in the red.

The latest figures point to increases of more than R2.50 a litre across petrol and diesel if current conditions persist through the remainder of September.

The latest projections are also worse than earlier estimates, despite international oil prices recently pulling back from their September highs.

Petrol heads towards R30/litre

The latest CEF-linked data shows an under-recovery of approximately R2.71 per litre for petrol 93 and R2.88/litre for petrol 95.

That would put petrol prices – for both grades – at both the coast and inland, withing touching distance of R30 per litre.

Diesel motorists are also facing another substantial increase.

The latest figures indicate an under-recovery of approximately R2.60/litre for 0.05% diesel and R3.00/litre for 0.005% diesel.

The potential increase would come only weeks after the substantial September adjustment.

Oil prices remain the biggest problem

International petroleum prices remain the main source of pressure on South Africa’s fuel-price outlook.

Brent crude climbed sharply during September as concerns over Middle East supply disruptions and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz intensified.

There has since been some relief, with Brent falling from around $108.75 a barrel on 15 September to below $100 by 22 September.

However, the decline has come relatively late in the review period and has not yet removed the large under-recoveries accumulated earlier in the month.

The latest projections indicate that international petroleum-product prices, rather than the rand, remain the dominant driver of the potential October increase.

Rand provides limited relief

South Africa’s fuel prices are influenced by both international petroleum prices and the rand/US dollar exchange rate.

A stronger rand can reduce the local cost of imported petroleum products, while a weaker currency adds pressure.

The latest data suggests that currency movements have provided only limited relief against the much larger increase in international petroleum-product costs.

October prices are not final

Motorists should not regard the latest CEF figures as the final October fuel prices.

The CEF’s daily calculations are a snapshot of the under- or over-recovery during the review period. Oil prices, refined petroleum-product prices and the rand can still move substantially before the final adjustment is announced.

The recent fall in Brent crude demonstrates how quickly the outlook can change.

If the oil-price decline continues and the rand strengthens, the eventual increases could be smaller. Conversely, renewed supply disruptions or another spike in crude prices could push the projections higher.

The final October fuel-price adjustment is expected to take effect on Wednesday, 7 October 2026.

FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:

1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices.

2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products.

Oil price

At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $98.95 a barrel.

Exchange rate

At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.26/$.

Current September 2026 petrol and diesel prices (Inland and Coastal):

INLAND	September
Petrol 93	R26.76
Petrol 95	R26.92
Diesel 0.05%	R29.09
Diesel 0.005%	R30.04
Illuminating Paraffin	R20.89

COASTAL	September
Petrol 93	R25.97
Petrol 95	R26.05
Diesel 0.05%	R28.22
Diesel 0.005%	R28.78
Illuminating Paraffin	R19.84