Iranian attacks on Iraq's Kurdistan aim to transform Iraq into buffer zone, spread war - analysis

Iran carried out a number of attacks on the Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq as clashes with the US escalated overnight. The Iranian attacks fit a pattern going back to February. Iran has sought to spread the war to Iraq and other countries via attacks. It has often singled out the Kurdistan Region for attacks. Since February, Iran and its proxies in Iraq have targeted the Kurdistan Region with 1,000 drone and missile attacks.

Rudaw media in Erbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdistan Region, said that numerous attacks took place overnight. According to the reports from Rudaw in Erbil, “Iran on Wednesday attacked positions belonging to the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI) dissident group near Erbil with several drones, the group said in a statement. The assault comes against the backdrop of renewed US-Iran escalation over the past 24 hours.”

The KDPI is one of the key Kurdish Iranian opposition groups. Along with six other groups, it has formed a coalition against the regime. Its leader, Mustafa Hijri, also gave a recent interview where he discussed the importance of opposing the regime and having a democratic Iran.

"At 2:00 to 2:40 am [local time] on Wednesday morning, the Islamic Republic [of Iran] targeted the bases and headquarters of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran," the KDPI said in a statement.

Iran’s Tasnim news, which is linked to the IRGC, also said that the IRGC had carried out drone and missile attacks targeting US forces in Erbil. The US has been withdrawing forces from Iraq, including from the KRG. Iran claimed to have targeted a maintenance facility. Iranian-backed militias have targeted US forces for years in Iraq.

They even used drones to try to attack what The Washington Post described as a CIA hangar in Erbil in 2021. In the recent Iran conflict, the regime in Tehran has targeted the US consulate and UAE consulate in Erbil. It has also targeted offices linked to Kurdish leaders Nechirvan and Masrour Barzani.

Iran targeted Iraq's Erbil

The KDPI noted several details about the Iranian attacks overnight on September 1-2. “According to reports, in the first attack, leadership residences in southern Kurdistan were targeted with 3 drones, and shortly thereafter, the training camp was also targeted. The training camp is located near the city of Erbil and was a residence for families of the Democratic Party.”

The report added that “the Islamic Republic of Iran, since the start of the war with the United States and Israel, has so far targeted family camps of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, as well as the party's medical and educational banks, with more than 156 missiles and drones.”

Meanwhile, Rudaw also said that “the US-led Global Coalition forces shot down 10 explosive-laden drones in Erbil province early Wednesday, the Kurdistan Region’s Counter-Terrorism Directorate (CTD) announced, as Iran launched attacks targeting US positions across the Middle East amid renewed tensions with Washington.”

The Coalition said its “forces intercepted and shot down 10 explosive-laden drones within the airspace of Erbil province,” CTD said in a statement. “Fortunately, there were no casualties," CTD said, according to Rudaw. “Two Kurdish security sources told Rudaw English on Wednesday that the IRGC struck and destroyed the US Tethered Aerostat Radar System (TARS) surveillance balloon over Erbil during the overnight attacks. The balloon system, a ubiquitous part of Erbil’s skyline for months, was not seen Wednesday morning.”

According to data compiled by Rudaw Media Network, the number of attacks surpassed 800 by late April and continued to rise, reaching more than 855 by May and eventually exceeding 900 during the summer.

Iranian-Kurdish opposition is in the area, according to Iranian regime

Iran has justified many of the strikes by claiming that Kurdish Iranian opposition groups, including the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI), Komala, and other organizations based in northern Iraq, threaten Iranian national security.

However, the attacks have extended far beyond opposition camps. Iranian-backed groups have repeatedly targeted areas around Erbil, Sulaimaniyah, and Duhok, including locations near US diplomatic and military facilities, energy infrastructure, and civilian areas. Kurdish authorities have consistently stressed that the Kurdistan Region is not a party to the conflict and has not allowed its territory to be used as a launching pad for attacks on Iran.

Iran’s attacks seek to strike an area of Iraq that the regime assumes is not well protected. It wants the US to leave Erbil. Iran also works closely with Iranian-backed groups in Baghdad. As such, it seeks to target Erbil instead of Baghdad. Iran also wants to destabilize and weaken the Kurdistan Region. It knows the region is a US partner. It also wants to send a message to the Iranian opposition groups not to think about an uprising in Iran. US President Donald Trump had mentioned on social media the issue of Iranians rising up. Iran wants to pre-empt this and spread the war to Iraq. Iran views Iraq as a kind of “near abroad” or zone of influence and a buffer.

The sustained campaign has placed enormous pressure on the Kurdistan Regional Government while highlighting the challenge facing Baghdad in controlling Iranian-backed militias operating inside Iraq. The attacks have strained Iraq's relations with the United States and neighboring countries and have reinforced calls by Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi to bring all armed groups under state authority. For the Kurdistan Region, the conflict has demonstrated both its strategic importance and its vulnerability as regional tensions increasingly spill across Iraq's borders.