Storm menaces Japan after highest cyclone tally since 1966

A tropical cyclone brewing in the Philippine Sea is set to intensify over the weekend and take aim at Okinawa, the latest storm to menace Japan in a busier-than-normal season.

Tropical Storm Surigae is currently 791 kilometers south-southeast of Okinawa, packing top sustained winds of 74 kilometers per hour, according to the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It’s forecast to intensify into a typhoon by Sunday, and strengthen to the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane as it makes its closest approach to Okinawa on Monday, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

The tropical cyclone is the 11th system to approach Japan since June, above the historical norm of around 9 for the period, JMA data show. It follows an exceptionally active August, which saw 10 tropical cyclones form in the west Pacific basin — the highest number since 1966, according to the JMA.

Surigae also comes barely a week after Typhoon Dujuan hit Tokyo and surrounding areas with torrential rain, leaving at least nine dead and causing an estimated ¥5.7 billion ($36 million) in economic losses, according to preliminary estimates by Weathernews.

Fueling the abnormally active storm season this year is a “chain-reaction triggered by the El Nino background,” said Takahisa Nishikawa, a senior meteorologist at Atmospheric G2.

A strong El Nino expands a warm ocean pool across the Pacific, he said, triggering a number of changes in winds and clouds that eventually create a “steady conveyor belt” of what are known as tropical easterly waves — atmospheric ripples that pulse across the tropics, bringing rain and thunderstorms, which in turn spawn tropical cyclones.

“Most storms through mid-August formed directly from these atmospheric ripples,” Nishikawa said, citing JMA analysis.

After passing south of Okinawa early next week, Surigae is expected to continue tracking northeast toward Japan’s main island, according to Weathernews, although the forecast remains uncertain.