Nigeria back from brink, but human cost of reforms must be addressed — Sanusi

Former Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Emir of Kano, Lamido Sanusi, has commended the federal government for pulling the nation’s economy “back from the brink,” while warning that macroeconomic gains mean little without deliberate interventions to protect vulnerable citizens at the bottom of the pyramid.

Mr Sanusi made this statement on Tuesday at the Oxford Global Think Tank conference, where he said President Bola Tinubu’s government needs to pay more attention to the human cost of its economic reforms.

The former central bank chief highlighted marked improvements across core macroeconomic metrics, noting that a foundation for stability has successfully been established following years of sluggish growth.

Mr Sanusi pointed to the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP), which grew by 4.48 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, as evidence of tangible recovery.

“Now, it’s not as high as it was in the time of Yar’Adua/Jonathan, for example, 6–7 per cent, but if you look at the Buhari years, on average, GDP grew by 0.9 per cent.

“Even if you took out the pandemic years, we were growing at 1.8 per cent under Buhari. Today it’s at 4.5 per cent, so we have to accept that as progress”, Mr Sanusi stated.

He also underscored significant headway on inflation, which has dropped from over 30 per cent in recent years to 14.6 per cent, with projections settling around 12 to 12.5 per cent next year.

According to Mr Sanusi, the aggressive monetary tightening cycle among the most stringent in emerging markets has enabled Nigeria to turn the corner on consumer prices, creating room for the apex bank to consider easing monetary policy as global central banks remain constrained.

Other positive markers he cited include external reserves climbing to $55 billion, supported by elevated crude oil prices linked to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and substantial portfolio inflows.

He said GDP per capita in dollar terms expanded by 47 per cent in 2023, driven by economic growth and a firmer exchange rate, and non-crude output has received a major boost from the Dangote Refinery, which contributed approximately $4 billion to exports in Q2 2026, exporting 50 per cent of its diesel and 85 per cent of its aviation fuel production.

Despite the upbeat top-line numbers, Mr Sanusi stressed that the stability achieved so far is only a starting point and cautioned against complacency, pointing to the inherent volatility of portfolio flows, which are susceptible to global geopolitical shocks.

More critically, he assessed the social fallout accompanying the reforms, urging policymakers to confront the severe hardships facing everyday Nigerians.

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“At the end of the day, we’ve got to look at the human beings at the bottom of the pyramid.

“What’s happening to human beings? What’s happening to education? What’s happening to healthcare? What’s happening to maternal mortality? What’s happening to malnutrition? What is happening to hunger?”

He lamented the stark disparities in wealth distribution across regions, noting that while poverty has receded in some areas, large segments of the population have been pushed below the poverty line without adequate buffers.

“When we started these reforms, we should have known that there was going to be an impact on people at the bottom of the pyramid, and we should have designed policies that would try to minimise those shocks, and that is a problem that we’ve not done, and we still have not done.”

Mr Sanusi reiterated that while the current administration deserves credit for steering the economy away from collapse, sustained progress will ultimately be judged by how effectively the government shields its most vulnerable citizens through functional social safety nets.