Rays vs. Guardians ALCS Game 4 picks: Strong winds blowing in at Progressive Field should keep run total down

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Weather should be a factor ALCS Game 4 as the Rays visit the Guardians on Friday

Oct 16, 2026 at 9:28 am ET • 4 min read

I was hoping that Friday might be the last time this MLB season that we had multiple games played, but now the NL champion Milwaukee Brewers are sitting and waiting for their World Series opponent (and already favored) thanks to a stunning sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers. And they may wait a while with Game 4 of the ALCS tonight and the Tampa Bay Rays visiting the Guardians as Cleveland eyes a 3-1 series lead. Bet $5+ on ALCS Game 3 to get $200 in bonus bets and three months of NBA League Pass at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Remember when TV didn't dictate life? All sports leagues cater to TV thanks to those billion-dollar contracts. This was originally scheduled for a 6 p.m. ET start but with the Brewers sweeping the Dodgers on Thursday, that opened up primetime for this game and it was moved thusly to 8 ET on TBS.  

I did grab this early so I'm sure things will change quite a bit, but the Rays at -112 are taking 98% of the handle and 73% of the bets at DraftKings. To no shock, the Under is taking solid action, and I think we may see 6 once the general public wakes up and sees the winds. Speaking of …

I'm trying to recall of the worst weather I've seen for a playoff baseball game -- I remember some snow in Chicago and Denver. But tonight is a doozy. It may well get postponed, although MLB does everything in its power to avoid that, especially on a one-game night. Here's the forecast: 54 degrees with a 44% chance of rain and 27 mph winds blowing in. Yeah, I don't miss that Midwestern silliness.

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Rays vs. Guardians MLB same-game parlay

• Cleveland +1.5
• Race to 5 runs: neither

DraftKings SGP price: +129 (subject to change)

Entering Game 3, Tampa Bay was -135 on the series line and Cleveland was +115 with Rays in six as the +320 favored outcome. Following Cleveland's 3-2 win in Game 3 for a 2-1 lead, the Guardians are now -190 and the Rays are +160. I thought the Game 3 winner would take the series and still do. When a seven-game series is tied 1-1, the winner of Game 3 has won the series 71 of 102 times (69.6%), including 13 of 18 times (72.2%) in the ALCS

For whatever reason, Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash, unquestionably one of the best in the business, chose a mediocre Griffin Jax to start Game 3 (and Jax took the loss in a very Jax-ish outing) over veteran Nick Martinez, a first-time All-Star at age 36 who goes here instead. The righty had a career season at 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.09 WHIP – not a huge strikeout guy.

Martinez was better away at 7-3 with a 2.38 ERA and .232 opponents' batting average. He faced the Guardians once at Progressive Field and once at the Trop and won them both, not allowing a run over 13.0 innings with just seven hits allowed and one walk. Cleveland batters hit a collective .159 off him. Jose Ramirez is 1-for-11 off Martinez.

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Even though Martinez debuted in the majors in 2014 – he spent a chunk of years in Japan – he only got his first playoff start at Yankee Stadium in Game 3 of the ALDS. Martinez lasted 3.2 innings, allowing two runs and five hits in a no-decision. He left after getting hit in the back with a line drive, but reliever Ian Seymour was already warming up. Seymour immediately allowed Martinez's inherited runner to score.

Martinez is now 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA in nine career playoff appearances (first eight in relief for the Padres and Reds) spanning 15.0 innings. The model forecasts him at 5.9 innings, 3.8 strikeouts, 4.8 hits allowed and 1.9 earned runs.

Cleveland has a pretty clear top three in the rotation in Parker Messick, Gavin Williams and Foster Griffin, and they pitched the first three games. Things now get a bit tricky for manager Stephen Vogt. But it sounds like Tanner Bibee will get the call -- if perhaps following an opener such as Daniel Espino.

I have to fly a bit blind here to get you this early as even the books aren't listing a starter. The 27-year-old Bibee had a disappointing season at 7-15 with a 4.36 ERA and didn't get his first personal W until June 6 despite being on the Opening Day roster and missing no time. Bibee was 0-2 against Tampa Bay despite a solid 3.27 ERA, although Rays batters hit .302 against him.

Bibee wasn't trusted much in the ALDS, throwing just a half-inning of relief in Game 4. The model is listing him as the guy and at 5.7 innings (no shot of that in my opinion), 4.8 strikeouts, 5.3 hits allowed and 2.3 earned runs.

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Yesterday really couldn't have worked out much better on my parlay of Guardians +1 and both teams to score at least two runs, paying at +132. No way I'm doing both to score two tonight. I usually do neither to 7 runs, but that's super pricy tonight with the winds. Six is as well, so five it is. Feels like a 3-2 game, as it was on Thursday. The model has the Rays winning 4.0-3.6, but I'm not sure that has added in the weather yet. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.