El Niño Delay Explained- Why Nairobi And Parts Of Kenya May Miss Anticipated Heavy Rains

Several parts of Kenya, including Nairobi, may have to wait longer for the highly anticipated El Niño rains—or could miss out on heavy downpours altogether—the Kenya Meteorological Department has clarified.

Speaking during an interview on Spice FM on Wednesday, November 11, 2026, Eastern Region Meteorological Services Deputy Director Richard Muita explained that while El Niño is a major climate phenomenon that influences global weather systems, its presence does not automatically guarantee heavy rainfall locally.

According to Muita, projections by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) showing a near 100 percent likelihood of El Niño conditions raised public expectations of above-average rainfall across Kenya. However, he noted that the actual impact on the ground depends heavily on how El Niño interacts with other regional climate drivers.

“We need to understand what El Niño is. It is one of the factors causing changes in weather around the globe. We have not received rainfall as forecast because El Niño is just a factor that drives rainfall patterns across the world, and it is not rainfall itself; that should be clearly distinguished,” Muita stated.

His clarification comes amid growing public questions—particularly among Nairobi residents—over the delayed onset and lower intensity of expected seasonal rains.

The Role of the Indian Ocean Dipole

Muita explained that although El Niño originates in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, local rainfall across East Africa is heavily governed by conditions in the Indian Ocean, specifically the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

When strong El Niño warming in the Pacific coincides with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures along the East African coast, Kenya typically experiences substantial, widespread rainfall. Conversely, when Pacific temperatures signal strong El Niño conditions without supportive Indian Ocean temperatures, the expected heavy rains fail to materialize.

“For us to achieve the much rainfall that we anticipated, normally it works very well with other factors like the Indian Ocean dipole. And because its main indicator is temperature, the temperature on the coast of East Africa, once it is kind of in agreement and is higher than normal, then normally it is on the spot. However, when we have strong temperatures around the Pacific, and the Indian Ocean is not as good, then that combination does not lead to much rainfall,” he added.