Separatists win Quebec election in test for Canada PM’s national unity strategy

The separatist Parti Québécois (PQ) won Quebec’s provincial election on Monday but fell short of enough seats to govern alone, returning to power with a promise to hold another referendum on independence from Canada.

The result returns Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s party to power for the first time in more than a decade but denies it the majority it sought, forcing the separatists to rely on opposition parties even as they try to revive Quebec’s independence debate.

PQ’s victory could make it tougher for the prime minister, Mark Carney, to maintain national unity against ⁠the US president, Donald Trump. Carney, who has stressed the need for a united front to deal with Trump’s tariffs, must now work with a Quebec premier who is determined to break ‌up Canada.

PQ was on track to win nearly 60 seats as the final votes were counted, falling short of the 64 needed for a majority in Quebec’s 127-member National Assembly, the provincial legislature. A minority government means PQ will need support from opposition lawmakers to pass key legislation and survive confidence votes.

The result, which was ‌widely expected, reflected voter fatigue with the centre-right Coalition Avenir Quebec government, in office since 2018, analysts said.

Previous PQ governments held failed independence votes in 1980 and 1995 and polls indicate support for the idea ​of breaking with Canada is at 30%, near record lows.

Plamondon, citing the political uncertainty and economic damage done by the tariffs, says he will not call another referendum until Trump is out of White House. He also says ⁠he will work with Ottawa whenever it suits Quebec’s interests.

But some ​PQ policies – such ​as resisting any federal ​bid to boost immigration levels, vowing to cut Quebec’s ties ​to the British monarchy ‌and promising to ​block a ​proposed high-speed, high-profile rail line linking Quebec with Ontario – could increase tensions with Carney.

Earlier in the day, Carney told reporters he would work with whoever Quebec chose as its next premier.

The Quebec result comes two weeks before Albertans vote on 19 October on whether to hold a referendum on separation from Canada.

Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, said the result should not be viewed as a rejection of Carney, who remains very popular in Quebec.

Still, Béland said a separatist government in Quebec represented a new national-unity challenge for Carney, particularly with another independence-related vote approaching elsewhere in Canada.

Quebec, which is about 80% French-speaking, already has significant policy autonomy.

The province collects its own income tax, has immigration policies favouring French speakers and has laws giving the French language priority over English.

Trump’s tariffs and 51st-state rhetoric have complicated the separatist argument by stirring Canadian nationalism and giving some French-speaking Quebecers another reason to value the protection that comes with remaining part of Canada.

Trump’s tariffs and repeated threats against Canada became a defining issue in the 2025 federal election, helping lift Carney’s Liberals to victory after the party had trailed badly before Trump returned to office.