Chinese invasion unlikely to occur next year: sources

US officials believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely despite Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) instructions for his military to be ready by 2027 to take Taiwan by force, if needed, people familiar with US thinking said.

The main reasons for the belief include delays in military readiness amid the Chinese Communist Party’s anti-corruption campaign, as well as Beijing’s eagerness to see the results of Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election, which some Chinese officials hope could usher in a government more amenable to bringing the nation under Chinese control, according to two US officials, one former US official and a person familiar with the matter.

Beijing might increasingly look to use force in 2028 and beyond if Taiwanese elect a Democratic Progressive Party candidate for a fourth consecutive term, and in particular if President William Lai (賴清德) wins re-election, the people added.

Chess pieces are displayed in front of Chinese and Taiwanese flags in an illustration photograph taken on Jan. 25, 2022.

Photo: Reuters

“If that happens, I think 2028 becomes pretty sporty,” said one of the US officials, who like the other sources spoke on condition of anonymity.

The assessment, which has not previously been reported, is a significant update to the years-long understanding among US officials that Xi wanted his military ready to potentially take Taiwan by force next year, the centenary of the founding of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA). China has never ruled out using force to bring Taiwan under its control, but has never publicly confirmed a 2027 readiness order.

In Taipei, Presidential Office spokeswoman Karen Kuo (郭雅慧)said in a statement yesterday that under Lai’s leadership, Taiwan will not only strengthen its self-defense capabilities but will also continue to work closely with all international democratic allies, including the US, to maintain the status quo, deter threats through strength, and ensure peace.

"For the sake of its citizens’ freedom, democracy, prosperity, and well-being, Taiwan will not abandon its commitment to democracy and freedom in the face of any military threat," she added.

China’s US embassy and Taiwan’s representative office in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The 2027 benchmark, which analysts say is about Chinese military preparedness rather than a timeline for invasion, has for years created a sense of urgency across multiple US administrations in countering China in the Asia-Pacific region.

The US intelligence community has hinted at Chinese wariness before.

It said in its annual threat assessment in March that China did not, at least at that point, have a plan to invade Taiwan next year and still preferred to wrest control of the nation without the use of force, if possible.

US officials offered mixed assessments of the degree to which China might view the 2028 US presidential election as an important indicator for military action.

While three of the people familiar with the matter said Beijing might also want to evaluate the outcome of the US election, particularly given rising US voter antipathy toward US military action abroad, the first US official said Beijing viewed both Democrats and Republicans as largely aligned on Taiwan.

While China might have a preference in the 2028 US election, “it doesn’t become as decisive a factor in my opinion, as it might have been 15 years ago,” the official said.

US President Donald Trump has downplayed the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan during his presidency, going so far as to say last year that Xi told him China would not invade while he was in office.

Xi has not rescinded his goal for the PLA to have the capabilities available to take Taiwan by force by next year, officials said.

However, the military did not accomplish as much last year militarily as it probably had intended because of the impact of China’s anti-corruption campaign, the people said.

Since coming to power in 2012, Xi has unleashed a sweeping corruption and discipline crackdown. Millions within China’s vast bureaucracy have been investigated, with scores of senior party, government and military officials ensnared and purged.

In the past few years, the PLA has been a target of the campaign. A string of investigations and expulsions has left just two active officials on the formerly seven-member Central Military Commission, including Xi himself, who serves as chair.

China’s military exercises last year were smaller and less threatening compared with the past several years, according to the US official.

While they bounced back a bit this year, the official suggested that Chinese military officials were dissatisfied with their readiness.

China was believed to have drawn a lesson from the wars in Iran and Ukraine, which is the need to move quickly once any invasion begins and avoid getting bogged down in a sustained conflict, the official said.

“There are way too many pieces that aren’t quite in place yet for what would be the most difficult military operation any military has attempted probably since the Allied invasion of Normandy,” the official said.