UH in the College Football Playoff? Cougars may not have to wait for the expanded 24-team field

The College Football Playoff expands to 24 teams in 2027.

If you're the University of Houston, why wait?

The Cougars checked in at No. 14 in the latest CFP rankings released Tuesday, a three-spot jump from the previous week.

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If the playoff began today, the Cougars would miss the cut in the current 12-team format.

Under the expanded format for next season - which will include the four champions from the Power Four conferences (SEC, Big 12, Big Ten and ACC), the highest-ranked Group of Six champion and 19 at-large selections - the Cougars would be in position to host a first-round playoff game.

How does No. 14 Houston vs. No. 19 Ole Miss at TDECU Stadium sound?

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"I wanted to have an opportunity to win a national championship," coach Willie Fritz said this offseason about his decision to take the UH job in 2024.

That path might be arriving ahead of schedule.

To have any chance in this era of college football, you must have an invitation. Otherwise, you can spend your holiday at the Alamo Bowl or Pop-Tarts Bowl. Nothing wrong with those postseason destinations, but the ceiling has been raised for a UH program that is now among the top 15 in the nation.

It's been a hard climb. The last time the Cougars were in the national discussion was during the H-Town Takeover, a two-year window that included wins over behemoths Florida State, Oklahoma and Louisville. But even then, the smallest slip (hello, UConn, Navy and SMU) kept the Cougars from a shot at a national title.

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In the decade since, UH has been mostly irrelevant, going through two different coaches and one bad extension before hiring Fritz, who has been a master program builder at every stop and every level. The Cougars went from 4-8 in his first season to 10-3 last year, capped by a win over LSU in the Texas Bowl.

Now, the Cougars enter the final three weeks of the regular season - starting Friday against Colorado in Boulder - still in the hunt for a spot in the Big 12 championship game.

UH will need some help - specifically a loss by Texas Tech - and will need to beat Colorado, West Virginia and Baylor.

Then leave it up to the computers and tiebreaker scenarios.

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Under one scenario, UH would win a four-team tie for second place with BYU, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State based on conference opponents' winning percentage.

The winner of the Big 12 championship game receives an automatic bid to the CFP.

In Tuesday's second rankings, Utah (9-0) was No. 2 behind Georgia and in the driver's seat to be the Big 12's highest-ranked team in the playoff. BYU, with a signature win against Notre Dame, dropped only one spot to No. 10 after the Holy War loss to Utah. Texas Tech is No. 12, making the Red Raiders the first team out (the last spot is for the G6 representative). Selection committee chairman Hunter Yurachek said Texas Tech's strength of schedule - ranked 65th by the committee's metric - lags behind that of two-loss teams like No. 10 BYU and No. 11 Kentucky.

Along with Houston, No. 23 Arizona and No. 25 Oklahoma State, the Big 12 can make a strong case as the second-best conference behind the SEC and argue it deserves multiple bids for the first time in the 12-team CFP era.

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But what are the Cougars' chances?

"I think Houston may need some chaos to happen, but just the fact they're up at No. 14 is pretty crazy," college football analyst Josh Pate said on his podcast.

The Cougars are close to the bubble thanks to a 7-2 start, with the two losses to Utah and Texas Tech by a combined 10 points. What may hurt the Cougars is a remaining schedule that offers no big opportunities to impress the selection committee.

There are bound to be some losses among the top 13, which would open the door for UH. A big game Saturday: Oklahoma State plays Texas Tech in what should be a shootout in Stillwater.

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UH currently has a 21% chance to make the playoff, according to ESPN's Playoff Predictor. By winning out, even if the Cougars lose in the Big 12 championship game, their odds would increase to 31%. There could even be a path to the playoff if UH doesn't reach the Big 12 championship game. At 10-2, the Cougars would likely be near the top 10, giving the committee something to consider.

The Cougars understand the stakes are high.

"We can't look forward, we can't look back," quarterback Conner Weigman said. "You've got to be very present in what you're doing and how you handle your business. That's how you win football games this time of year."

Why wait until 2027?

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This article originally published at UH in the College Football Playoff? Cougars may not have to wait for the expanded 24-team field.