Soft power bounces back

Even if the Old Testament tells us that Yahweh cursed King David for his census because it was wrong to try and pin a number on a spiritual entity like the Chosen People, the numbers still say a lot about last week’s papal visit. Just in case anybody thinks that the two-and-a-half million people flocking to last Monday’s Palermo Mass were a fluke, there were almost as many around Luján Cathedral on Wednesday and if anybody imagines that organised religion is limited to older generations slowly dying out, there were a good million youngsters at Tuesday evening’s youth vigil. Yet this story only commences with the numbers.

If the poet William Cowper wrote: “God moves in a mysterious way, His wonders to perform,” this extraordinary magnetism of such a shy pontiff as Pope Leo XIV is something of a mystery. Perhaps people appreciated the rare phenomenon of a leading authority more inclined to listen than to speak – the Pope was not only moving into a spiritual gap but a political vacuum. His sermons were not limited to Christian doctrine but were also something of an echo chamber for the problems currently afflicting Argentina, about which the Vatican is well briefed with ample local sources of information ranging from diocesan to parish and community level – the poverty, exclusion, drug-trafficking and online betting among other addictions and various ills not addressed by either the government, polarised politics or a heartless society (of which the VIP tent at the Palermo mass was an extreme example). Those who could not deliver their grievances in person found them incorporated into the papal messages with the added benefit of being accompanied by millions with massive media coverage.

Almost all politicians could bask in the success of the papal visit with moments for each of the four leading 2023 presidential candidates combining over 97 percent of the vote (the Palermo Mass for Javier Milei and Patricia Bullrich of La Libertad Avanza, the outings to Luján and the Cottolengo Don Orione home for the disabled for the Peronists voting for Sergio Massa and Córdoba for Juan Schiaretti) but all have reason to feel challenged. Leo XIV prudently refrained from presenting the Church’s social doctrine to the anarcho-capitalist president as a demand for a Scandinavian welfare state but, amid an economy slipping into recession, he reminded him that austerity has its victims who cannot be ignored and that human beings cannot be subordinated to the economy. The opposition Peronists have to ask themselves that when they raise similar banners of social justice and inclusion at their rallies, the response is nowhere near the same, instead losing their agenda and their constituency to the Pope.

United in welcoming this spiritual leader but also united by all falling short with negative opinion polls ratings in a society disenchanted with its politicians, nobody was able to jockey any advantage – this resoundingly successful visit was everything but an electoral game-changer. But perhaps it will redefine political charisma – perhaps next year’s election will not be won by a flamboyant orator like Raúl Alfonsín or Cristina Fernández de Kirchner or an eccentric outsider like Milei but a more sober figure with a solid institutional background like Fernando “They say I’m boring” de la Rúa. A provincial governor following in the footsteps of Carlos Menem and Néstor Kirchner might fit that bill but most of them seem to prefer clinching their home turf rather than daring to run an extremely volatile nation. So our next president might just be a kindred spirit to the shy mathematician from Chicago (although not a Chicago Boy by any means).

Nothing succeeds like success but nothing exceeds like excess – impossible not to give this blockbuster visit the highest marks but the Biblical phrase “By their fruits ye shall know them” also applies here. The papal words had some impact on Milei, who backtracked on his 2023 campaign demonisation of the late Pope Francis and on dismissing social justice as the politics of envy, while his government is reportedly reconsidering its policies towards the disabled. But will there be any real change? Massive crowds to greet the Pope but were these the end rather than the means – will society change any more than when less than four years ago twice the numbers of the Palermo Mass poured into the streets to hail the Qatar World Cup champions? Right now we can only thank Pope Leo XIV for his presence here and congratulate the success of his visit – may the President hear his words and reflect deeply on their meaning.