Where Will Rocket Lab Stock Be by This Time Next Year?

Any prediction about a stock's future price should be taken with a big grain of salt. This one is no exception. Nobody owns a functioning crystal ball.

Still, if you can take a step back and see the bigger picture, it's possible to make a reasonable, educated guess. Here's such a guess for Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) shares.

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Headwinds

It's been a tough past few months for Rocket Lab stockholders. Although shares soared in May in response to impressive first-quarter results and encouraging second-quarter guidance, the stock has since fallen 57% from that late-May peak.

Blame a combination of more bullish interest in newly public rival Space Exploration Technologies, and the recent announcement of its compelling-but-pricey plan to acquire Iridium Communications (NASDAQ: IRDM) for $8 billion. That's a sizable chunk of change for still-unprofitable Rocket Lab, which only sports a market value of $38 billion. The growing likelihood that the launch of the company's first medium-lift rocket, called Neutron, will be pushed back again all the way into 2027 is also weighing on the stock.

As is so often the case, though, emotions (including fear) may have clouded investors' collective judgment, obscuring where this stock should arguably be priced at this time. That spells opportunity.

Growth ahead, with or without Neutron

Don't misread the message. There's no arguable fundamental value for Rocket Lab's stock right now. As was noted, the company is currently unprofitable and likely will be for the foreseeable future. It's pretty speculative in the meantime.

Still, even for a speculative name, Rocket Lab isn't getting the kind of credit most stocks of its risk-based ilk would be getting at this stage. Rocket Lab has already proven its mettle as a space launch company, with its smaller Electron rocket recently completing its 94th mission. Its Neutron will get off the ground sooner or later, and likely sooner, putting the company into the critical medium-lift sliver of a space launch business that Global Market Insights expects to grow by 14.6% per year through 2034.

In the meantime, the impending pairing with Iridium bolsters its already impressive satellite construction and technology capabilities, which account for the vast majority of its revenue anyway. This business is going to remain intact regardless of when Neutron is finally flying.