Syria fuel crisis exposes risks for Nigeria, other nations

By Udeme Akpan

Syria’s latest fuel crisis has highlighted the vulnerability of countries that depend heavily on imported crude, refined products or foreign energy supplies, with implications for Nigeria and other developing economies.
Syria raised diesel prices by 40% and gasoline prices by up to 28% following rising global procurement costs and disruptions to its domestic fuel supply. The increases triggered protests and road blockades in several parts of the country.
The crisis has been worsened by Syria’s limited domestic crude production, refinery constraints and disruptions to external supplies.
The country produces about 102,000 barrels per day (bpd), against demand of roughly 325,000 bpd, forcing it to rely significantly on imports.
Its largest refinery, Baniyas, is also undergoing a three-month overhaul, further tightening domestic fuel supply.
For Nigeria, the development underscores the importance of expanding domestic refining capacity while ensuring adequate crude supply to local refineries.
Although Nigeria is a major crude producer, its downstream market remains exposed to international oil prices, freight rates, foreign exchange movements and supply disruptions.
A prolonged rise in global crude prices can therefore increase the cost of petrol, diesel and other petroleum products, even when domestic refining capacity expands.
The impact goes beyond motorists. Higher diesel and petrol prices raise transportation and logistics costs, increase the cost of moving food and goods, and put pressure on manufacturing, construction, agriculture and electricity generation where businesses rely on self-generation.
Other African countries face similar risks, particularly those with limited refining capacity and high dependence on imported petroleum products.
The Syrian experience also demonstrates that crude oil production alone does not guarantee energy security.
Countries need functioning refineries, reliable crude supply, storage infrastructure, efficient distribution networks and policies that can cushion consumers from severe international price shocks.
For Nigeria, the growing capacity of domestic refineries could provide a major buffer against external supply disruptions.
However, that advantage will depend on the availability of crude for local processing, operational reliability, adequate logistics and a pricing structure that allows domestic refiners to compete sustainably.
The broader lesson is that energy security requires more than producing crude oil. It requires the capacity to convert, transport and distribute energy reliably and affordably to consumers.
As global oil markets remain volatile, countries that combine domestic production with strong refining and distribution systems will be better positioned to withstand external shocks.