Predicting NFL's first coaching change of 2026: Why Todd Bowles, Jim Harbaugh are in greatest danger

Sluggish starts put these coaches in danger of becoming the first to lose their job

Sep 29, 2026 at 3:54 pm ET • 5 min read

The first head coach firing of the 2025 NFL season came on Oct. 13. The year before that, Oct. 8 was the first fateful day. With the calendar about to flip from September to October, history suggests at least one unfortunate coach will be out the door in the coming weeks, and there are a few candidates that may be in line for an in-season pink slip.

Some worked their way off scalding seats over the first three weeks of the 2026 season. Aaron Glenn (New York Jets) and Shane Steichen (Arizona), for instance, both have a win under their belts and were competitive in their losses. They could be out the door by the end of the year, but the chances that these highly scrutinized leaders become the first casualties of the coaching carousel are slimmer than they appeared at the beginning of the month.

At the same time, surprisingly rough starts for a few teams placed new pressure on coaches to right the ship. The Chargers and Packers, for instance, have a combined one win despite opening the year as perceived postseason contenders.

Five of our NFL writers at CBS Sports convened for a roundtable discussion to determine which coaches are at the highest risk of becoming the first to lose their jobs in 2026. Here are the responses.

Tyler Sullivan: Todd Bowles, Buccaneers

"The Buccaneers coach had arguably the hottest seat in the NFL coming into the season, and not much has changed. In fact, his seat is probably hotter. After going 8-9 and missing the playoffs last year, Bowles fired most of his staff, which is typically a last-ditch effort before the entire operation gets overhauled. The rearranging of the deck chairs hasn't done much to turn the tide in Tampa, with the Bucs stumbling to a 0-3 start to the season. Each of those losses has come in one-score games, and the organization just feels stale. With Baker Mayfield (thumb) dinged up, it may only get worse from here.

"I'd keep an eye on Week 5 when the Bucs travel to Dallas to face the Cowboys on 'Thursday Night Football' as a possible spot where a change could be made. If they fall to 0-5, that mini-bye after a Thursday night game — especially if the primetime loss is one-sided — has been a pocket where changes have been made in the past."

Zach Pereles: Todd Bowles, Buccaneers

"Todd Bowles is a firing waiting to happen. Baker Mayfield is hurt, and he was playing poorly before that. The offensive line and the offensive ecosystem as a whole have regressed under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. Coaches can usually survive striking out on one coordinator who runs the other side of the ball — Bowles did after he hired and fired Josh Grizzard within the span of a year last season — but rarely can they do so two straight years without any postseason success.

"The defense has been largely good, which is a point in Bowles' favor, but let's see if it can hold up against improved competition in the coming weeks without Mayfield."

Bryan DeArdo: Jim Harbaugh, Chargers

"The Chargers were supposed to have a team capable of winning the franchise's first playoff game since the Philip Rivers era. Instead, the Chargers are 0-3 and are employing an offense that looks like it came straight from 'The Longest Yard.' Justin Herbert has regressed, and it's quickly become apparent that Mike McDaniel and Jim Harbaugh are indeed an odd couple.

"The odds of Harbaugh being the first canned coach only increase when you consider the Chargers' upcoming four games are against the Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs and Rams. It's possible the Chargers fire Harbaugh during their Week 7 bye if things don't improve by then. Would that lead to McDaniel becoming interim coach?"

Shanna McCarriston: Jim Harbaugh, Chargers

"The Chargers are continuously the 'what if' team, with the league's top 'what if' quarterback in Justin Herbert. But 'what if' doesn't win football games. Los Angeles dropped to 0-3 after a 24-16 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Despite forcing five turnovers and sacking Josh Allen four times, L.A. couldn't win, and alarm bells are ringing. The Chargers have the sixth-worst completion percentage (59.1), are tied for the third-fewest passing touchdowns (3), and are tied for second in interceptions (4).

"The team is very concerning, and year after year, it seems they cannot reach, or even get close to, their ceiling. Jim Harbaugh took over as the head coach in 2024, and in the two seasons he's been there, the Chargers haven't made it past the wild card round, even when they had the talent to. If things keep going the way they are, Harbaugh will be looking for a new coaching job for 2027. Their schedule going forward isn't doing them any favors, and they could easily go 1-6, or worse, to start the season."

Carter Bahns: Matt LaFleur, Packers

"The Packers committed to Matt LaFleur in the offseason with a multi-year contract extension, so moving on from him less than a year later would require team president Ed Policy to eat crow and likely leave the franchise on the hook for millions of dollars in guaranteed salary. But what about the start to this season suggests LaFleur belongs on the sideline? His only win came in overtime against the Jets, and he just sustained a Week 3 drubbing at the hands of the previously winless Falcons. The offense is a mess, the defense seems to have regressed and the path back to the playoffs is treacherous. There are three other legitimate contenders vying for the NFC North crown.

"LaFleur is the longest-tenured active coach without a Super Bowl appearance, and he only has one postseason win without Aaron Rodgers. Packers fans are losing confidence in his ability to turn the campaign around, and even if he did, the track record suggests there is nothing to be excited for in January. The last time the Packers made a coaching change, they fired Mike McCarthy in-season. LaFleur could be in for the same fate if this year continues its downward spiral."