Fantasy baseball 2027 first base outlook: Ben Rice, Miguel Vargas lead resurgence at a suddenly deep position

The story of first base in recent years has been one of attrition. As we've dealt with a number of high-profile flameouts from much-hyped young players, the position has gotten increasingly old. A lot of those guys in their 30s have held their value remarkably well, but we started to see more than just cracks in the foundation in 2024 and 2025. 

But that all changed in 2026. To put some numbers to it: 16 players put up an .800 OPS while playing at least five games at first base in 2026, compared to 14 in 2025 and just four in 2024. There were 10 30-homer first basemen in 2026; there were just 11 combined between 2025 and 2024. 

First baseman had a .336 wOBA in 2026, the best league-wide mark since 2021. We're a long way from the days of the 2000s, such as 2006, when the average first baseman had an .851 OPS, of course, but this was still obviously a big improvement for a position that had been trending down for a while. 

And we've got a lot of younger guys to thank for that. Ben Rice (27) was arguably the best first baseman in Fantasy, and he was joined in the top tier by breakouts from Miguel Vargas (26) and Sal Stewart (22); Munetaka Murakami and Luis Garcia (both 26) emerged as first-time 30-homer guys, too, and others like Jac Caglianone (23), Alec Burleson (27), and TJ Rumfield (26) all helped make first base look stronger than it has in years. 

Of course, anytime we are dealing with players with a limited track record of success at the MLB level, there's always heightened risk of regression to account for, and we shouldn't overlook that. Just because the winds shifted one way that allowed first base to look stronger as a whole than it has in years doesn't mean they won't blow back in the opposite direction in 2027.

But the position feels truly deep in basically every tier in a way that hasn't been true lately. We've got enough options to choose from that you should be able to avoid too many landmines. For the first time in at least a few years, the state of the first base position is strong.  

For more on the strength of the first base position, check out Scott White's rankings and thoughts on the top 20 in his way-too-early rankings for 2027 here. 

2026 First Base Review

1. Ben Rice, NYY: .264 - 105 - 41 - 97 - 3
2. Pete Alonso, BAL: .267 - 100 - 43 - 113 - 5
3. Miguel Vargas, CHW: .25 - 106 - 33 - 93 - 22
4. Sal Stewart, CIN: .263 - 87 - 32 - 111 - 15
5. Alec Burleson, STL: .279 - 89 - 26 - 116 - 4
6. Matt Olson, ATL: .251 - 99 - 41 - 93 - 4
7. Rafael Devers, SFG: .258 - 88 - 37 - 98 - 0
8. Bryce Harper, PHI: .269 - 93 - 29 - 87 - 7
9. Yandy Díaz, TBR: .293 - 93 - 22 - 85 - 3
10. Jake Bauers, MIL: .266 - 93 - 26 - 86 - 11
11. Luis García Jr., NYY: .277 - 69 - 30 - 92 - 5
12. Jac Caglianone, KCR: .289 - 72 - 23 - 75 - 7

It's worth noting that, without the benefit of catcher eligibility, Rice would slip a bit in the rankings. According to the FanGraphs Player Rater, he was the third-most valuable first baseman, behind Alonso and Vargas. There's nothing wrong with that. I just think it's worth noting knowing he won't carry catcher eligibility into 2027 (and seems exceedingly unlikely to ever play there often enough to get it back). 

Beyond that, I think it's worth pausing on Burleson, who had an absolutely absurd season, emerging as a true full-time player for the first time and leading the majors in RBI. He traded a bit of contact (strikeout rate jumped from 14.5% to 18.1%) for more damage when he made contact. The 25-ish homer power feels real, and the batting average should be pretty projectable, but a repeat of 119 RBI feels all but impossible. For example: He somehow managed to drive in 40 runs against left-handed pitchers, the second-most in the league, despite a .212/.248/.301 line against them. Burleson's RBI total feels like one of the easiest regression calls on the board for 2027. 

Biggest Breakout from 2026

Miguel Vargas, White Sox

You can make a case for Rice, Stewart, Burleson or even Jac Caglianone. Still, I'll go with Vargas, who was drafted later than any other top-15 first baseman besides Liam Hicks (who you definitely used at catcher). How'd he do it? Vargas just got better at basically everything. He improved his walk rate from 9.8% to 14.3% without a rise in his strikeout rate, a tough thing to do – players with high walk rates tend to pair them with high strikeout rates as they find themselves working deeper into counts and invariably seeing more strikes and walks. 

He pulled that trick off, which is tough enough, but he also did it while swinging his bat considerably harder and doing significantly more damage on batted balls as a result. There are usually trade-offs involved with these kinds of changes, but that wasn't the case for Vargas, who also turned his above-average speed into 22 steals, 16 more than in the previous season. He was good against both lefties and righties, and he was almost exactly as good in the second half as he was in the first. This was about as robust a breakout as you're likely to find, and I don't see much reason to expect the bottom to drop out just based on the skills Vargas showed. The only hole you can poke here is just that he hasn't done it a second time yet. 

Biggest Bust from 2026

Vladimir Guerrero, Blue Jays

Who else could it have been? Guerrero was, on average, the first 1B taken in drafts before the season and he finished the season ranked 35th. Coby Mayo, who can't hit righties, was ahead of him; so was Casey Schmitt, who missed a third of the season. Josh Naylor was a pretty big bust in his own right and he was still way more valuable than Guerrero, who provided basically nothing positive to your Fantasy teams. 

What makes it worse is that you almost certainly never dropped Guerrero; at least when Nick Kurtz got hurt, you could just put him in an IL spot or dump him. Ditto, Vinnie Pasquantino or Tyler Soderstrom. But with Guerrero, you just had to keep him around – sure, you could drop him, but then you'd run the risk of him getting hot, hitting like himself for a few weeks or months and helping out your competition. So you just had to eat it. 

What went wrong? Well, part of it was that Guerrero just underperformed – his .331 expected wOBA wasn't great, but it was a lot better than his .305 actual mark. Of course, that doesn't explain all, or even most of it, because a .331 xwOBA was also the worst of Guerrero's career, and his 11 expected homers (based on Statcast batted ball data) were hardly much better than his actual mark of nine. Guerrero lost nearly 2 mph on his average exit velocity, which is especially bad news for a guy who already doesn't optimize the batted balls he hits. Guerrero already struggles to get the most out of his swing when he's hammering the ball, because he too often hits the ball either on the ground or to the deepest parts of the ballpark. Losing quality of contact on top of that is a recipe for disaster.

There's still plenty of upside in Guerrero's bat – players don't generally just totally lose it at 27, after all. Maybe this rough season, which saw the Blue Jays go from nearly winning the World Series to outright missing the playoffs, will prove to be a turning point in Guerrero's career; maybe we'll see him come back in 2027 in the best shape of his life, with a new swing that actually takes advantage of his prolific gifts as a hitter. It's possible.

But you shouldn't bet on it. Bet on Guerrero being better in 2027 than he was in 2026, sure but betting on him being an elite hitter again? You'll need to get a significant discount to justify that. Luckily, I do expect Guerrero to drop 50 or more spots in ADP after he was a top-20 pick coming into the season. 

Biggest rankings movers from 2026 to 2027

Up: Ben Rice, Yankees; Miguel Vargas, White Sox; Sal Stewart, Reds; Alec Burleson, Cardinals

Hey, we haven't really talked about Stewart yet, but he had a phenomenal rookie season and seems likely to win the NL Rookie of the Year award. His well-rounded skill set was on full display, and with very little in the way of platoon splits or home/road issues to crop up as a red flag. He was probably a "better in Fantasy than real life" player, but it's not like there's any risk of him losing playing time because he's a poor defender, so that doesn't concern us. What concerns us is that this 22-year-old showed up with plus power, solid contact skills, and enough athleticism to finish his rookie season with 15 steals. You can't count on a repeat of 111 RBI from a sub-.800 OPS bat in a mediocre lineup, but something like 25-30 homers, double-digit steals, and a batting average that won't hurt you (and might even help) feels like a good place to set expectations moving forward. Of course, you're still more likely to use Stewart at third base than first next season, but having a bit of extra eligibility never hurts a player's value. 

Down: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays; Josh Naylor, Mariners; Vinnie Pasquantino, Royals

Is there anything to learn from Naylor's struggles this season? Well, we learned he can repeat as a 30-steal guy, which seemed like a long shot, given his lack of foot speed. Unfortunately, we may have learned that the 30 or so games he played (and thrived!) in Seattle after his trade in the summer of 2025 may not have been a real indication of how he will hit moving forward. He held his own there after the trade, but in his first full season calling T-Mobile Park home, Naylor hit just .241/.306/.326, 66 points worse in OPS than he was on the road. But before we go so far as to say we should have seen this coming, it's worth noting that his .699 OPS on the road was also quite bad and would have been his worst full-season performance since 2021. There wasn't a total collapse in Naylor's skills, but his career-low strikeout rate did come with a career-worst .089 ISO, so he might be better off trying to trade some contact for some damage in his training this offseason, because it didn't work for him. The unusual speed still makes Naylor a fascinating Fantasy option, but if that goes away, there's real bottom-out potential here. 

Pasquantino got off to a miserable start, got hurt, and watched from the trainer's room as the rest of the position left him behind, which might have hidden from view just how good he was down the stretch. He hit .289/.366/.617 in the final 35 games of the season after coming back from the IL, with a 51-homer pace. Obviously, he isn't that good, but it was a nice reminder of how Pasquantino can hit when he isn't slumping or hurt. The lack of consistency that has defined his career makes Pasquantino a tough sell as a top-12 first baseman again, but he won't cost anywhere near that price in 2027, so you can mostly just target him for the upside scenarios. As frustrating as his 2026 season was, he should be a nice, cheap target as a corner infielder for 2027. 

Offseason preview

Who needs an upgrade most? 

• Marlins
• Mets
• Guardians
• Tigers
• Twins
• Pirates
• Reds
• Rangers
• Diamondbacks

Despite the renewed strength of the position league-wide, there are still plenty of teams that intended to compete in 2026 but didn't get much from the first base position. The Mets are the most notable among those teams amid the backlash to their decision to let Pete Alonso walk. I do wonder if that backlash won't make them more prone to do something aggressive this offseason to compensate for it. There aren't a lot of great options on the free agent market, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Mets were among the most aggressive teams in either free agency or on the trade market.

The Diamondbacks could also really use an upgrade at first, a position they've had a hole at since Christian Walker left as a free agent a few years ago. Their first basemen rank dead last in wOBA over the past two seasons, something that made it even tougher to make sense of for a team that was alive in the playoff race up until the final hours of the season. Getting more than a .233/.282/.354 line from their first baseman could have been the difference between making the playoffs and going home, and you have to think they're going to do something to address that hole. Making matters worse is that the Diamondbacks also ranked 28th in wOBA from their designated hitters, resulting in an OPS near .630 across the two most important offensive positions. 

Top impending free agents

• Yandy Diaz
• Jake Bauers
• Alec Bohm
• Josh Bell
• Paul Goldschmidt

Diaz just turned 35, so he'll probably have to settle for a shorter deal in his first real taste of the free agent market. His skill set hasn't really shown any signs of decline, as he still combines above-average power with a terrific approach at the plate. The fact that he's probably more of a DH than a first baseman (including for Fantasy, where he doesn't actually hold 1B eligibility heading into 2027) won't help his market, either, but Diaz's skill set looks strong enough to expect at least another very strong season from him. 

Bauers was one of the biggest surprises of the season at any position, with an age-30 breakout that saw him finish second in the NL in OBP while putting together a top-15 wOBA across the entire majors. He did that while largely playing an everyday role after the first few months, and he was actually a little better against lefties on the whole. He can technically stand in the outfield, but any team signing him is almost certainly doing it so Bauers can play first base, and if his breakout was real, he could be a top-12 option at the position in the right landing spot. That's a pretty big if, but it could really work out for some team willing to take the risk. It would also potentially free up Andrew Vaughn for everyday playing time, and seeing as he has hit .306/.384/.466 in 585 plate appearances since joining the Brewers, there would definitely be some sleeper appeal there if he gets the chance.

Trade candidates

• Bryce Harper, Phillies
• Spencer Torkelson, Tigers
• Christian Walker, Astros

The Phillies are seemingly at a crossroads, too old to expect much internal improvement and too expensive to realistically be viewed as a landing spot for premier free agents. Moving Harper would be a tough move to swallow for the fanbase, but it might be their only way forward – Harper still hits like a star. His defense and baserunning push him more toward the "pretty good" spectrum overall, and that might not be enough for a Phillies team with some tough decisions to make. 

Beyond Harper, there aren't a ton of compelling moves teams could make beyond the margins, though. Torkelson probably is what he is at this point, though some teams might see a path toward 35-homer potential in a ballpark more conducive to his swing. Walker, meanwhile, just seems like an obvious trade candidate as an expensive, declining contract on a team that will probably shake things up this offseason; the bigger question is whether anyone really wants Walker as anything more than a salary dump at this point. 

Top 2027 rookies to know

• Ralphy Velazquez, Guardians
• Charlie Condon, Rockies
• Josiah Hartshorn, Cubs
• Blake Burke, Brewers
• Xavier Isaac, Rays
• Andrew Fischer, Brewers*

Velazquez and Condon both seemed like good bets to make their MLB debuts down the stretch, but neither actually ended up getting the call. The Rockies have some log jams they have to clear up, but with neither Jordan Beck nor Zac Veen establishing themselves as a viable long-term piece (yet), Condon should have the opportunity to play for an Opening Day job in Spring Training. At this point, I'd pencil Velazquez into a starting job for next season, at least.

The rest are tougher to project. Fischer is a third baseman who probably profiles more as a first baseman in the long run, which will put extra pressure on the bat to play. He has the plate discipline and power to make it work, but there's enough swing and miss in his game to put serious doubts about whether it'll work. But after he put up a 154 wRC+ at Double-A in 72 games, you have to think he's on the verge of getting a chance, even if he's a long shot for Opening Day. 

Isaac lost a lot of his prospect luster after he struggled early on in 2025, but his struggles had a good explanation: He had an undiagnosed brain tumor that required surgery. Miraculously, he was back on the field in 2026, reaching Triple-A as a 22-year-old and hitting .258/.402/.510 with 27 homers in just 117 games. Isaac has some contact questions of his own, but with the way he played in 2026, he has to be back on our radars. 

Hartshorn was one of the biggest prospect risers this season, and the Cubs started experimenting with him in the outfield. Given Michael Busch's presence at the cold corner and both Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ heading into free agency this offseason, that might be the long-term home for Hartshorn if he can handle it. Hartshorn did a little bit of everything, hitting 23 homers, stealing 17 bases, and putting up closer to a 1:1 BB:K ratio than you'd expect from a 19-year-old. He only got into three games at Double-A, so this is more of a second-half of 2027 type of timeline, even if you want to be aggressive. But his precocious skill set, combined with the Cubs' needs, could lead to an opportunity sooner than you'd expect.