Russia might have rehearsed satellite attack
THE NEW FRONTIER: An incident targeting a satellite that provides military data to Ukraine raised concern over the vulnerability of commercial satellites
Reuters, LONDON and WASHINGTON
A Russian military satellite that approached a Western commercial satellite last month could have been rehearsing an attack, a military space specialist said, with two related Russian craft now heading in the direction of another Western satellite.
US Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Thomas DiNanno wrote on X following the incident last month that Russia’s Cosmos 2612 military satellite had been “intentionally maneuvering dangerously close to a commercial satellite” in conduct “consistent with on-orbit weapons operations.”
The satellite approached, called X36, is operated by Finnish company ICEYE and provides radar imagery to Western governments and militaries, including Ukraine. Three space specialists described the incident as one of the closest known approaches by a Russian military spacecraft to a commercial satellite in low altitude orbit.
ICEYE chief executive Rafal Modrzewski poses at the company’s headquarters in Espoo, Finland, on June 3 last year.
Photo: Reuters
The encounter “looks like an attack rehearsal,” said Greg Gillinger, a senior space analyst at Integrity ISR, a US company that provides training to US space forces.
“This is the most aggressive posture I’ve seen Russia take in terms of threatening satellites from another nation,” he said.
The Russian Ministry of Defense did not respond to a request for comment. Moscow has repeatedly said that commercial Western satellites helping Ukraine could become legitimate targets for retaliation.
ICEYE US chief executive Ann Stevens said that X36 “has been and will continue to be a productive satellite” and that its constellation of radar-imaging satellites is resilient in the event of disruption.
The episode has fueled concern over the vulnerability of commercial satellite networks that have become increasingly important to military operations. It follows months of Russian activity around ICEYE that Western officials have warned demonstrates capabilities that could be used to threaten or disrupt commercial constellations, including those operated by Elon Musk’s SpaceX.
Gillinger, a former US Air Force intelligence officer who has tracked the Russian satellites, said Cosmos 2612 appeared to be testing kinetic attack-related capabilities because such a close approach would not be needed for intelligence collection or electronic interference.
Cosmos 2612 is publicly categorized as a servicing inspection satellite, US space intelligence firm Slingshot Aerospace said.
It is one of six military satellites Russia launched in April. In May, Russia positioned four of them close to X36, space analysts have said.
ICEYE subsequently moved its satellite, prompting further Russian maneuvers, CEO Rafal Modrzewski said in September.
Early last month, Cosmos 2612 positioned itself hundreds of kilometers behind X36, space analysts said. It then rapidly closed the distance over several days, coming within 1km of X36 in the middle of last month, with some analysts saying it was within a few hundred meters or less.
Cosmos 2612 subsequently moved about 400km away, Gillinger said.
Two sibling Russian satellites are now drifting toward the orbital path of another ICEYE spacecraft, X37, he said.
US space-tracking company COMSPOC also said the two siblings were becoming increasingly well positioned to approach X37.
X36 and X37 are US-registered, public space-object catalogs showed.
German Space Command Commander Major General Michael Traut said that close approaches like Cosmos 2612’s could be used for inspection, observation or interference, depending on a spacecraft’s technical capabilities.
“We must therefore consider the entire spectrum of possible effects, ranging from temporarily disrupting a satellite’s operations to permanently disabling it,” he said.
The ability to perform such maneuvers was not in itself evidence that Russia was preparing or rehearsing an attack, he said, adding that its purpose could not be determined from publicly available orbital data alone.
Major powers are preparing for the possibility of conflict extending into space, after Washington acknowledged that it has deployed weapons in orbit.
The head of US Space Command earlier this year said that Russia had deployed a space weapon within reach of critical US national security satellites.
Russia’s approach to X36 “really elevates the potential of an attack” from either deliberate or inadvertent interaction, said Andrew Turner, a space consultant and retired senior British air force officer.
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