Why the 2026 US midterm elections matter more than ever for Trump amid Iran war

2026 US midterm elections November 3 will decide control of Congress and Trump's final two years, with Republicans' narrow majorities at risk amid historical midterm losses. Vote comes as Trump's approval slips over the Iran war, with most Americans saying the US isn't winning it.

The 2026 US midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, are likely to determine control of Congress and could directly shape the final two years of Donald Trump's presidential term amid the ongoing war with Iran.

Held midway through a president's four-year term, the midterms are nationwide elections in which all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and roughly one-third of the 100 seats in the Senate are contested, along with numerous state and local offices.

The presidency itself is not on the ballot. However, the elections determine which party controls Congress, making them crucial to a president's ability to advance his legislative agenda during the remaining two years of his term.

Why are the US midterms important for Trump?

Historically, the president's party tends to lose congressional seats during midterm elections.

Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress.

A shift in either chamber can therefore change the balance of power in Washington.

If Republicans retain control of both chambers, Trump would have greater congressional backing to pursue his legislative priorities during the second half of his term.

However, if Democrats gain control of either chamber, Trump could face greater congressional scrutiny and more difficulty towards advancing his legislative agenda.

This comes as Trump faces challenges on several fronts. Recent US Supreme Court rulings have also affected aspects of his administration's policies.

Losing ground in Congress could deal a severe blow to his push on tariffs and other agenda items and will affect Trump's ability to pass legislation, approve appointments and pursue his policy priorities.

Polls overshadowed by the Iran war

The 2026 midterms come as Trump's administration faces questions over the US military campaign against Iran.

The US and Israel launched their war against Iran on February 28, with Tehran saying thousands of people were killed. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks across the region and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy supplies.

Is Trump's approval rating under pressure?

The polls come at a time when Trump's approval rating has faced pressure.

A recent CNN/SSRS poll found that 64% of Americans said the US was not winning the war in Iran, while 36% said it was. Nearly two-thirds of respondents also said Trump was not doing enough to end the conflict.

“What the midterms usually are is a reflection of presidential popularity,” foreign policy scholar Trevor Thrall told DW.

Addressing world leaders at the United Nations on Tuesday, Trump highlighted US military action and argued that his administration had responded directly to threats rather than relying on diplomacy alone.

“While others have talked, I have acted. While others have spoken of peace, I have made peace,” Trump said.

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