War, floods and a strong rand squeeze South African citrus growers

South Africa’s citrus exports decline has been confirmed, after a season that tested growers on almost every front.

Citrus farmers exported 201 million cartons in the 2026 season, down 1.5% from 204 million in 2025.

The drop comes despite good harvests in most growing areas.

The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) released its final season figures late last week.

The total was also 4% below its original April forecast of 209.4 million cartons.

What caused the citrus exports decline?

The CGA pointed to a combination of pressures:

• War in the Middle East. The US-Israeli war with Iran disrupted shipping to the Middle East, which usually buys about 20% of South Africa’s citrus. Exporters faced container shortages, and fruit bound for markets such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia often had to take longer shipping routes
• Floods. Flooding in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape damaged and destroyed orchards in key growing regions
• Competition from Egypt. A large Egyptian orange crop narrowed South Africa’s window to supply Europe
• A stronger rand. A firmer rand reduced growers’ earnings from fruit sold abroad

CGA chairperson Gerrit van der Merwe said South African citrus production continued to grow, but this season had been affected by a combination of pressures.

Why the South African citrus season matters

Citrus is South Africa’s largest agricultural export by value. The industry earned R44.9 billion in exports in 2025.

South Africa is also the world’s second-largest citrus exporter by value, after Spain.

That means a weaker season affects far more than farmers.

It touches packhouses, transport companies, ports and thousands of seasonal farm jobs.

The AGOA blow ahead

The 2027 season faces another challenge.

The US has announced it will remove South Africa from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) from 1 January 2027, ending duty-free access to the American market.

The US accounts for about 5% of South Africa’s citrus exports, so growers will need to absorb new costs or find other buyers.

What it means for shoppers

The export dip doesn’t necessarily mean cheaper oranges at home.

Fruit that misses export markets can end up on local shelves, but prices also depend on quality, transport and demand.

HAVE YOU NOTICED A CHANGE IN CITRUS PRICES AT YOUR LOCAL SHOP?