The world needs to get serious about electrification – here’s why

To reduce climate emissions, the world needs clean electricity powering our industry, transport, homes, lighting and heating. However, much of the energy we use still comes directly from burning fossil fuels.

Cars burn petrol, gas heats buildings and industrial processes burn coal and gas. Currently, only 23% of global final energy demand – the energy that reaches the final user, such as households or factories – comes from electricity.

This week, at the UN climate summit COP31 in Turkey, there’s a strong focus on electrification. The COP presidency, which includes Australia’s climate and energy minister Chris Bowen and Turkey’s environment minister Murat Kurum, has launched a “35-by-35” electrification pledge. They want other countries to sign on. This would see 35% of global final energy use come from electrification by 2035.

This is significant, and goes beyond switching petrol cars for electric ones. Electrification changes how we use energy, replacing the direct use of fossil fuels across transport, buildings and industry with electricity, increasingly from renewables.

However, this pledge raises a number of questions. Is this target realistic? And where did the figure of 35% come from? My colleagues and I have published analysis that provides the answers.

Why 1.5°C remains crucial

The world has run out of time to limit global warming to 1.5°C without temporarily overshooting it. The latest climate scenarios suggest that even with decisive action to cut emissions, temperatures are likely to exceed 1.5°C for at least a decade.

The latest temperature scenarios show the best we can hope for is for warming to peak around 1.7°C in the 2040s, before returning to 1.5°C by 2100. This is known as “overshoot”.

The higher and longer temperatures remain above 1.5°C, the greater the risks to people and nature. Returning to 1.5°C also requires removing large amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, something we can’t do yet at the necessary scale.

This makes the rapid reduction of emissions crucial. Rather than hoping future technologies will be able to undo the damage, we need to rely on those already available.

Why electrification matters

Electric technologies are more efficient than fossil-fuelled equivalents. An electric car converts more of its energy into movement than a petrol car. Heat pumps can deliver several units of heat for each unit of electricity consumed.

As electricity generation shifts to wind, solar and other low-emissions sources, the benefits flow into every part of the economy that uses electricity. Renewable energy reduces the emissions used to create electricity, while electrification creates more demand for renewables.

The new 35-by-35 target is intended to work alongside existing global commitments made at COP28 in Dubai three years ago; to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030.

Where does 35% come from?

Our analysis of the latest global climate scenarios finds 35% is not an arbitrary political ambition. In fact, it is the median level of electrification in climate scenarios that gives us the best remaining chance to return global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. The median average is the middle value in the data set.

To understand whether 35% is a credible target, we examined newly published global climate scenarios developed by the international climate modelling community.

Among these, we focused on ten pathways with the lowest levels of warming. These would peak at around 1.7°C or less, and return to 1.5°C or below by 2100.

Across all of these projections, electricity’s share of global final energy rises from around 23% in 2025 to a median of 28% in 2030, and 35% in 2035. This shows that to align with scenarios that limit warming to 1.5°C, electricity needs to supply about 35% of the energy we use by 2035. Our research sets out the evidence.

However, the world is not yet on track. Under existing global climate policies, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects electricity will supply just under 30% of final energy by 2035.

Of course, the climate benefit is reduced if petrol, coal and gas use is replaced with electricity generated by fossil fuels. However, the good news is that new climate scenarios show how renewable energy and electrification can work together. As renewable electricity expands, it becomes more economically viable to switch transport, buildings and industry from fossil fuels to electricity.

We have what we need

Much of the necessary technology already exists. One in four new cars sold globally in 2025 was electric according to the IEA, and up to three-quarters of global energy demand could be electrified using existing technologies.

The challenge is getting these existing technologies – such as heat pumps and electric industrial equipment – deployed. We need greater investment in electricity grids and storage, policies that encourage households and businesses to switch from gas to electrical devices, and access to affordable finance, particularly in developing countries.

There are compelling economic and security reasons to make the shift. Countries reliant on imported oil and gas are exposed when international prices spike, as we saw this year in the US-Iran conflict. Domestic renewable electricity can reduce that dependence, while efficient electric technologies lower overall energy demand.

A collective commitment

Electricity must become cleaner – reducing emissions and air pollution – as demand grows. Fossil fuel use must rapidly decline.

The 35-by-35 target is one part of a larger transformation, alongside renewable energy and energy efficiency.

The COP31 talks provide an opportunity to turn this scientific benchmark into a collective commitment. The evidence is clear that the world needs to electrify faster. The question at COP31 this week is whether governments are prepared to put the policies, investment and cooperation in place to make it happen.