China’s economy grows faster than forecast after AI boom boosts exports

Roaring exports lifted China’s economic growth in the third quarter of this year, with factory output growing much faster than lacklustre consumer spending.

China’s GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year between July and September, the National Bureau of Statistics of China reported on Monday. The figures were better than economists had expected and up from the second quarter’s growth rate of 4.3%.

China’s economy has now grown by 4.6% in the first nine months of the year, putting it on track to hit the government’s 2026 target of 4.5% to 5% growth without extra stimulus measures.

Industrial production rose 5.5% in September, up from 5.2% in August, while retail sales only increased 1.1%, up from 0.4%.

Duncan Wrigley, the chief China+ economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said Beijing’s policymakers were likely to conclude that their efforts to stabilise headline growth in the third quarter were successful.

“Headline industrial production rose in September partly as coalmines resumed operations after safety inspections prompted by a major accident. Manufacturing output growth remained robust at 6.0% year on year in September, buoyed up by stronger export demand for electronics, AI-related equipment and autos,” Wrigley said.

“Hi-tech manufacturing output continues to outperform traditional sectors, as China climbs the value-added ladder,” Wrigley added.

However, fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% over the first nine months, property investment tumbled by 20.6%, and infrastructure spending remained weak.

Data last week showed that China’s exports surged by more than a third in September, lifted by a rise in shipments of electronics related to AI.

“This pickup in GDP growth mainly reflects ongoing export strength on the global AI/tech boom, more than offsetting drags from the Iran conflict and ongoing weakness in domestic demand,” said analysts at ABN Amro.