Netanyahu's Likud, Eisenkot’s Yashar trade leads as 2026 election picture stays unclear - poll

Five polls published after the Knesset candidate lists closed show a highly fragmented political landscape, with no clear advantage for either major bloc, Maariv reported on Sunday.

In four of the five surveys, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party emerged as the largest party, while an i24NEWS poll showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud taking first place by a significant margin. Former IDF Brig.-Gen. Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party crossed the electoral threshold in all five polls, while Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha’s Economic Party only passed the threshold in the Kan News survey.

The bloc picture also remained unclear. Two polls showed an exact tie between the major blocs, while the others gave an advantage to the opposition bloc, with the exception of the i24NEWS poll, which showed a significant strengthening of Netanyahu’s bloc.

i24NEWS: Likud leads with 27 seats

The most notable poll of the week was conducted by i24NEWS and Direct Polls. Unlike all other surveys, it showed Netanyahu’s Likud leading the race with 27 seats, while Eisenkot’s Yashar received 22.

Naftali Bennett’s B’yachad declined to 10 seats, the Democrats received 9, United Torah Judaism and Otzma Yehudit each received 8, and the Joint List, Yisrael Beytenu, and Shas each received 7 seats.

The Religious Party and Zehut received 6 seats each, Ra’am received 5, and Ofer Winter’s People of Israel received 4 seats.

The reservists’ list and Hendel and Zelekha’s Economic Party remained far below the electoral threshold, receiving 1.4% and 1.1%, respectively. Blue and White received 1.1%.

According to the seat distribution, Netanyahu’s bloc together with Winter reaches 60 seats, the opposition bloc reaches 48, and the Arab parties hold 12 seats.

Channel 13: 53-53 tie

A Channel 13 poll presented a completely different picture, with Eisenkot’s Yashar receiving 22 seats while Netanyahu’s Likud fell to 19.

Bennett received 13 seats, Shas received 7, and Ofer Winter’s People of Israel received 4. Hendel and Zelekha received 3.2% and remained below the electoral threshold.

Benny Gantz’s Blue and White and the Haredi Public party also failed to enter the Knesset.

The bloc breakdown showed a complete tie, with Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition bloc each receiving 53 seats, while the Arab parties held the remaining 14 seats.

Kan News: Yashar leads with 25 seats

The Kan News poll also placed Eisenkot’s Yashar party in first place, with 25 seats. Netanyahu’s Likud received 21 seats, while Bennett’s B’yachad received 14.

The Democrats received 10 seats, Yisrael Beytenu and Otzma Yehudit each received 8, United Torah Judaism received 7, and the Joint List received 6.

The Religious Party, Shas, and Ofer Winter’s People of Israel each received 5 seats, while Hendel and Zelekha’s Economic Party also crossed the electoral threshold with 4 seats.

Blue and White, the reservists’ list, and other parties failed to enter the Knesset.

The bloc breakdown showed a narrow advantage for the opposition bloc, which reached 58 seats, compared with 50 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc. The Arab parties held 12 seats.

Channel 12: Yashar in the lead

A Channel 12 poll also placed Eisenkot’s Yashar as the largest party, with 24 seats. Likud received 22, B’yachad received 15, and the Democrats received 11.

Otzma Yehudit received 9 seats, Yisrael Beytenu received 8, United Torah Judaism and Shas each received 7, the Joint List received 6, and the Religious Party received 5.

People of Israel, led by Ofer Winter, received 4 seats and crossed the electoral threshold, while Hendel and Zelekha remained below it.

The bloc calculation gave Netanyahu’s bloc, including Winter, 54 seats, the opposition bloc 55 seats, and the Arab parties 11 seats.

Maariv: Tight race between blocs

The Maariv poll showed another close race, with Yashar receiving 24 seats and Likud receiving 23. B’yachad received 14 seats, the Democrats received 10, and Otzma Yehudit received 9.

Yisrael Beytenu and United Torah Judaism each received 8 seats, Shas received 7, the Joint List received 6, and the Religious Party received 5.

People of Israel received 5 seats, while Hendel and Zelekha’s party received 3.5% and remained below the electoral threshold.

According to the bloc breakdown, Netanyahu’s bloc reached 52 seats, the opposition bloc reached 52 seats, and the Arab parties held 16 seats.

Summary of the polling picture

The five polls paint a fragmented political landscape with no clear winner. Eisenkot’s Yashar party leads in most surveys, but the i24NEWS poll shows Netanyahu’s Likud returning to first place with a significant advantage.

Ofer Winter’s People of Israel consistently crosses the electoral threshold, while Hendel and Zelekha’s party only succeeds in the Kan News poll.

The overall picture remains one of a tight contest between Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition bloc, with Arab parties potentially holding the balance of power.