UK poll tracker: Labour holds lead in close race between largest parties – but Tories gain ground

Andy Burnham’s Labour continues to hold a lead in the voting intention polls, which has turned into a close race between the three largest parties.

Labour is only in the lead by one point – with 24 per cent – after dropping three points on last week, according to the latest polling by YouGov.

The party is just above the Conservatives which are up three points to 23 per cent – their highest level since January.

Meanwhile, Reform UK took a 21 per cent share of the poll, still nine points above the Liberal Democrats which are on 12 per cent of the vote. The Greens are on 11 per cent.

The Tory’s boost comes after Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party speech in Birmingham where she highlighted the gulf between Labour and Tory policies, warning “there is a fight coming in British politics” not seen for 50 years.

Ms Badenoch has been emboldened by new prime minister Andy Burnham tacking to the left in his Labour Party speech and now feels that there is a “battle of ideas” as her party has promised tax cuts, deregulation and the creation of a £10bn “Iron Dome” missile defence system.

Although Labour’s figure has dropped, it’s still above any voting intention poll figure recorded for the party during the final twelve months of Keir Starmer’s leadership, according to YouGov data. It suggests Mr Burnham may be winning back voters who may have previously turned away from it under Starmer’s leadership.

The latest poll also marks a substantial recovery for both Labour and the Conservatives since early May, when the combined vote share of the two historic parties stood at just 33 per cent, relative to 47 per cent in the latest poll.

Labour’s lead comes after Green leader Zack Polanski was defeated in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali won with 12,292 votes, 45 per cent, while Mr Polanski came second with 8,928 at 33 per cent.

Labour’s rise in popularity under Mr Burnham has prompted calls for an early election which, if he won, would secure him a mandate for at least five years to deliver the bold changes he has pledged as prime minister.

The prime minister has said he wants to “knock dead” the ideas, although Kemi Badenoch and Ed Davey have both indicated they are making preparations for the possibility.