Bowl, CFP projections: How the postseason picture changed after a wild Week 10

It was a week circled on every college football fan's calendar, and Week 10 did not disappoint. We saw seven ranked matchups play out, six top-15 teams lose and one upset.

In Week 10, No. 1 Miami lost to No. 11 Notre Dame in a rematch that had major College Football Playoff implications last season and figures to this year as well. No. 3 Utah and No. 8 UCLA remained undefeated after a big Holy War rivalry game victory for the Utes against No. 9 BYU, and the Bruins' conference win on the road against Minnesota. No. 12 Ohio State lost for the second straight week against a conference opponent as the Buckeyes fell to 6-3 with a home loss to Oregon, and No. 5 Alabama gained a big conference road win against No. 14 LSU.

Following all that, we take a look at how the postseason picture shifted after Week 10.

New to the 2026 season, the Power 4 conference champions will receive automatic bids to the CFP along with the highest-ranked Group of 6 team regardless of whether it is a league champ. The remaining slots in the 12-team field will go to the next seven highest-ranked teams. Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot in the field if it is among the top 12 teams.

The four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds 5 through 8.

The festivities of bowl season kick off with the Cricket Celebration Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Dec. 12 and wrap up with the CFP National Championship game at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Jan. 25.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach will make their predictions for all the postseason matchups every week of the season until the actual matchups are set Dec. 6.

All times Eastern

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First-round games | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

Friday, Dec. 18
8 p.m., ESPN

Saturday, Dec. 19
Noon, ABC/ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT

Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas
Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas

Bonagura: No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 UCLA
Schlabach: No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Miami

Bonagura: No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 10 Wake Forest at No. 7 Tennessee

Bonagura: No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Miami
Schlabach: No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Alabama

CFP quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 30

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 UCLA

Friday, Jan. 1

Time slots for quarterfinals at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl to be determined on Selection Day (Dec. 6)

Quarterfinals Game 2
Noon, TNT
Bonagura: No. 8 Miami vs. No. 1 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 9 Indiana vs. No. 1 Georgia

Quarterfinals Game 3
4 p.m., ABC/ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Utah
Schlabach: No. 7 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Utah

Quarterfinals Game 4
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 UCLA vs. No. 3 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 Notre Dame

CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 14

Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Utah

Friday, Jan. 15

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 2 Utah
Schlabach: No. 5 Miami vs. No. 1 Georgia

Monday, Jan. 25

CFP National Championship
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Utah vs. No. 1 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 2 Utah vs. No. 1 Georgia

Bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 12

Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State
Schlabach: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State

Tuesday, Dec. 15

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Louisiana

Frisco Football Classic
The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Texas State

Wednesday, Dec. 16

TransPerfect San Juan Bowl
Hiram Bithorn Stadium (San Juan, Puerto Rico)
7:30 p.m. ET, TBD
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Marshall
Schlabach: FIU vs. Appalachian State

Friday, Dec. 18

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Liberty vs. Tulsa
Schlabach: James Madison vs. Western Michigan

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Florida vs. South Florida

Monday, Dec. 21

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: UMass vs. Marshall

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Toledo vs. North Dakota State

Tuesday, Dec. 22

Puerto Rico Bowl
Juan Ramón Loubriel Stadium (Bayamón, Puerto Rico)
1:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UMass vs. Georgia State
Schlabach: FAU vs. Delaware

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Acrisure Bounce House (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Ohio vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Middle Tennessee

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Washington vs. West Virginia
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Oregon State

Wednesday, Dec. 23

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana Tech

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Middle Tennessee vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Nebraska

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
7:30 p.m., The CW
Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: San Diego State vs. Arizona State

Frisco Bowl
The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Memphis
Schlabach: North Texas vs. New Mexico

Thursday, Dec. 24

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Wyoming vs. UTSA
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Tulsa

Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
7 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. North Dakota State
Schlabach: Air Force vs. Fresno State

Saturday, Dec. 26

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Duke vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Illinois

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Memphis

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Duke vs. Penn State

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Air Force
Schlabach: Georgia State vs. Miami (Ohio)

Cactus Bowl
Mountain America Stadium (Tempe, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Central Florida vs. Northwestern

Monday, Dec. 28

Freedom Mortgage Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Virginia vs. Army
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. UTSA

Trust & Will Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
5 p.m., The CW
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Louisville vs. USC

Tuesday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: Liberty vs. UAB

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Oklahoma State
Schlabach: SMU vs. Houston

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Oregon
Schlabach: BYU vs. Oregon

Wednesday, Dec. 30

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
11:30 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: SMU vs. Florida
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. LSU

Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
3 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. South Carolina

Thursday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Ole Miss

Old El Paso Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Washington

Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: USC vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Arizona vs. Missouri

Kinder's Texas Bowl
Reliant Stadium (Houston)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Oklahoma

Saturday, Jan. 2

Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Ohio State vs. LSU
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Kentucky

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Florida State vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Army

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Casino Del Sol Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., The CW
Bonagura: Toledo vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Wyoming

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
7:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: UCF vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Auburn