Fed's Hammack worried inflation expectations could deteriorate

CLEVELAND: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said on Friday she is concerned that persistently high inflation risks conditioning the American public to accept elevated prices as the norm, adding the central bank cannot let that happen.

"The biggest risk that I see with inflation right now is that an inflationary mindset could start to set in," the official said at an event at her bank, given that inflation has been over target for more than five years. She added the Fed has a role to play, saying, "We need to make sure that policy is at a restrictive stance to help bring things back down to target."

Hammack stopped short of saying what she wants the central bank to do on rates in her appearance, but she was an early and strong supporter of raising its interest rate target to help bring inflation back to target. Against the Fed's 2.0 per cent target, the personal consumption expenditures price index was up 3.7 per cent in July versus a year ago, as even underlying inflation is above the Fed's goal.

The Fed raised rates earlier this month, lifting its target rate range by a quarter percentage point to between 3.75 per cent and 4.0 per cent. Officials pencilled in another increase before year-end, although market participants expect the Fed to hike by more than that.

Hammack said that high inflation is not just from shocks like trade tariffs and the energy impacts of the Iran war but also owes to robust demand tied to the solid performance of the economy and the stability of the job market.

INFLATION SENTIMENT

The official, who holds a vote on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year, said monetary policy isn't where it needs to be yet.

"I don't see our policy stance as restraining investment in the economy," Hammack said. "When I'm talking to businesses, interest rates are not a factor for most businesses outside of housing and they're 'continuing to invest in the economy, which is good.'"

But, "if it's creating, you know, more inflationary pressures, that's something we need to be mindful of" and should be addressed by policy, Hammack said.

While Hammack said that inflation expectations appear to be in check, she worries about inflation sentiment.

"We've now got basically a generation of people in the US who've grown up without really knowing inflation at target for a sustained period," Hammack said. "How does that impact businesses, households, and their behaviours? How does that shift their thinking? And then what does that mean for policy?"

The official also said when it comes to the jump in government bond yields that have alarmed many, "it's real rates that have moved up more than the inflation expectations."

"We're reasonably well anchored from an inflation expectations perspective," and rising bond yields reflect a solid economic outlook and competition for investor cash due to strong tech sector investment, as well as investors adjusting prices to deal with the monetary policy outlook, the official said.