‘It’s here’: The record El Niño South Africa can’t ignore

El Niño could soon hit South Africa where it hurts most. Not just in the heat.

In the water flowing from Cape Town’s taps, and in the price of your maize meal.

Something is brewing in the Pacific Ocean, thousands of kilometres from our shores.

The question is no longer whether it’s coming.

It’s how hard it will hit.

El Niño usually appears every two to seven years.

It can last for up to a year. It starts with warming surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific.

In southern Africa, it usually means hotter, drier summers.

This time, local scientists say the 2026-2027 event is developing into an exceptional El Niño in both timing and magnitude.

WHERE CAPE TOWN’S DAMS STAND

In Cape Town, the six major supply dams stood at 75.5% on 2 October, according to the City of Cape Town.

That’s lower than this time last year.

The Western Cape is mainly a winter rainfall region, so its link with El Niño is more complicated. But the dams have less of a buffer heading into what could be a very hot summer.

Summer heat also brings fire risk. The province has set aside R12 million for the 2026/27 fire season.

It has 24 firefighting aircraft on standby.

With above-normal temperatures highly likely this summer, firefighters across the Western Cape could be in for a long and demanding season.

WHAT EL NIÑO COULD MEAN FOR SOUTH AFRICA’S MAIZE

Farmers have the most to lose.

North-West University climatologist Professor Roelof Burger pointed out that maize production fell by around 50% in the 2015-2016 drought.

It dropped by about 20% during the 2023/24 El Niño.

Maize meal is a staple in millions of South African homes. When harvests shrink, shoppers feel it at the till.

FNB agricultural economist Paul Makube said strong harvests should cushion food prices into 2027.

That’s the good news.

But if El Niño drags on beyond that, he warned, it “will spell a disaster from a food inflation perspective.”

For households already stretching every rand, that’s a warning worth taking seriously.

HOW STRONG IS THIS EL NIÑO?

The US Climate Prediction Center released its latest update on 10 September.

It puts the chance of a very strong event at more than 90%.

Sea temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific are running more than 3°C above normal.

There’s also a 75% chance that October to December produces an event stronger than any recorded since 1950.

The next update lands on 8 October.

Closer to home, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) issued its own warning. It said this could become the strongest El Niño in living memory.

Below-normal rainfall is the most likely outcome over most of South Africa from October to December.

A similar pattern is expected from November to January 2027. SAWS also said 2027 will likely be the warmest year ever recorded.

WHAT EL NIÑO COULD MEAN FOR SOUTH AFRICA’S SUMMER

SAWS unpacked its forecast at a media briefing in September.

SAWS lead scientist for long-range forecasting Dr Christien Engelbrecht said the odds of below-normal rain increase towards mid-summer. Above-normal temperatures are highly likely.

Heat is the real worry.

At the ENSO Reference Group summit, scientists noted that South Africa’s two warmest summers, 2015/16 and 2023/24, both came during strong El Niños.

Still, there’s no need to panic yet.

The very strong 1997/98 El Niño actually brought slightly above-normal rain to parts of the summer rainfall region.

Rudzani Malala, SAWS senior manager for disaster risk reduction, stressed that El Niño itself shouldn’t be seen as a disaster.

SAWS says individual weather events should be judged using daily forecasts and impact-based warnings, not blamed on El Niño alone.

I find the honesty from our scientists oddly reassuring.

Nobody is promising disaster.

Nobody is promising El Niño will pass South Africa by either.

What I do know is that small habits cost us nothing.

Shorter showers help. So does keeping an eye on food prices and SAWS warnings.

ARE YOU ALREADY CHANGING HOW YOU USE WATER OR SHOP AHEAD OF SUMMER?