Russia sends nuclear warning to Nato over its Kaliningrad enclave

Russia has warned Nato it would be ready to resort to nuclear weapons if the Western alliance attempted to cut off Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave that borders the Baltic Sea.

In a document sent to Nato and seen by Reuters, Moscow accused the alliance of a “dangerous and reckless course” that entailed “high risks of the outbreak of a direct armed conflict”.

The document ‌said this included the possibility of “Russian strikes against decision-making centres in the alliance’s member states right from the outset”.

“Russia will be ready to use the entire arsenal of forces and capabilities at its disposal, including nuclear weapons, in order to defend its territory should Nato countries undertake any attempt aimed at isolating the Kaliningrad Region from the rest of the country,” the diplomatic note said.

The warning highlighted Moscow’s urgent concern at what it sees as a growing Nato threat to Kaliningrad, a heavily militarised Russian territory that is wedged between Poland and Lithuania and is slightly bigger than the US state of Connecticut.

In a written ⁠response, seen by Reuters, Nato said it was a defensive alliance committed to countering threats to its members from all directions.

“None of Nato’s exercises or activities pose a ‌threat to the territory of the Russian Federation,” it said.

“We call upon the Russian Federation to end its unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We urge the Russian Federation to refrain from increasingly reckless behaviour towards the Allies and to cease its irresponsible nuclear rhetoric.”

Nikolai Sokov, a Vienna-based nuclear analyst and former Russian diplomat, said it was becoming increasingly hard for Western countries to keep stepping up ⁠their support for Ukraine without tipping into ⁠direct confrontation with Moscow.

He said the Russian warning might indicate that hardliners were gaining influence in a debate over how to respond to Western actions that included arms supplies to Kyiv, new sanctions on Moscow, ‌interceptions of Russian ships, frequent military exercises and intelligence flights near Kaliningrad.

“They [Russia] expect more action, including a blockade of the Baltic Sea – just below the level of war in European calculation, but for them this will ‌be open ‌war. I see a risk of mutual miscalculation,” Sokov said.

In an online interview, he said Russia and Europe were on a collision course that required caution and calculation ‌on both sides.

Instead of this, the Europeans were applying “full court pressure” and Russia was delivering a serious warning that this was highly risky, Sokov added.

In addition to the private warning, Russian embassies in at least three European countries have issued statements in the past three days accusing Nato of ⁠escalating tensions through military exercises and planning scenarios involving Kaliningrad.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described these as diplomatic reminders to “hotheads in Europe”.

Relations, already dire since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, have sharply worsened this year, with European governments accusing Moscow of stepping up a “hybrid war” on the continent through acts including ‌sabotage and arson.

Russia denies that and rejects ‌repeated statements by Western politicians that it is gearing up for a possible military attack on a Nato country.

A Nato diplomat said: “I would say that the Russian letter is only another Russian attempt to intimidate Europeans, and that the response by Nato is firm and responsible. [It] reaffirms that we will not be dissuaded from supporting Ukraine.”

A senior European defence official said: “[This is the] first time since [the] Cold War that Russia is threatening us like this. So this is serious.”