Andy Burnham's 'Holborn test': Why PM needs Labour by-election win to show he is not anti-London

Andy Burnham needs a Labour victory in the upcoming Holborn and St Pancras by-election if he wants to dispel the notion the new Prime Minister is anti-London.

Why? Let’s look at benefits. The claimant count rate in Mr Burnham’s Makerfield constituency was 3% in July.

Statistics need to be treated with caution.

But the figures may surprise given the narrative in some quarters that London’s streets are paved in gold, or something similar.

But there are also many deprived communities in the capital, with hundreds of thousands of people struggling as they are across the country in the relentless cost-of-living crisis.

In Tottenham, the claimant count rate was 9%, Brent East 8.8%, Edmonton and Winchmore Hill 8.2%, Hackney North and Stoke Newington 7.4%, and Lewisham East 7.3%.

It was 14.7% in Birmingham Perry Barr.

Andy Burnham after being declared the winner of the Makerfield by-election

PA Wire

He stressed: “A Makerfield test at the heart of British politics will make sure that the places Westminster has neglected will now get fairness.”

Few would dispute his motives or passion.

But now that he is Prime Minister he needs to govern for Makerfield but also, to use his own phrase, for “every postcode” in Britain.

That is not to dispute that the UK is an over-centralised country and that the regions could benefit from more power to make better use of increased investment.

“Some voters who ordinarily would support Labour were worried that the way we're talking about devolution meant that we were anti-London, and we absolutely are not here,” he explained.

Former Communities Secretary Steve Reed warned that some voters in the capital were worried that the Government is anti-London

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Former Lambeth Council leader Mr Reed added: “People have misunderstood Manchesterism in London.

“They fear Manchester will be prioritised over London, and it doesn't mean that and we have to make sure that the funding, when it's allocated nationally, is done in a fair way.”

There appears to be a smack of cakeism in Mr Reed’s comments.

Politics is normally about choices, often hard choices.

More money for the regions is likely to mean less for London.

You can’t have your cake and eat it, unless you boost economic growth.

Zack Polanski campaigning in Holborn and St Pancras

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Mr Reed did not appear to be seeking to be disloyal.

But he will be judged by London voters on his actions not his rhetoric.

Labour's candidate for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, Sagal Abdi-Wali, speaks to supporters during her campaign launch

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If the Greens win, it will be a historic victory.

But if they lose, it will damage Mr Polanski.

If Labour wins, Mr Burnham will give Labour back hope after the Starmer days.

But if the party loses, the PM may need to reflect on those growing anti-London accusations.