Five MLB free agents who have helped themselves in 2026 -- and five who have hurt themselves

Not everyone plays up in a contract year, so let's check in on 10 players headed to the market this winter

Sep 17, 2026 at 9:20 am ET • 6 min read

Looking ahead to the offseason isn't very fun right now. We're set to see the players and owners fighting over money in an ugly battle that already has the owners waging a public propaganda war. Once the dust is settled on all that nonsense, we'll get to free agency. 

It's a common myth that players step up and have huge seasons in contract years. You're playing for your next deal, right? Sure, there will be some big performers, but we'll also see underperformance. Maybe it's the added pressure. Maybe it's just how baseball works. So, let's take a quick glance at both sides. 

Ranking the top 10 MLB free agents for the 2026-27 offseason, plus potential landing spots

Mike Axisa

Five free agents who have helped themselves

Tarik Skubal, Dodgers

The top dog of the free-agent class was the biggest trade chip in July. He's having another great season, even if he won't win a third straight Cy Young. He's 10-7 with a 2.70 ERA (156 ERA+) and 173 strikeouts against only 25 walks in 146 ⅔ innings. Being great isn't a surprise, but the area where Skubal might've helped himself the most this season is how quickly he returned from elbow surgery. He was only out from April 30 to June 12. It only took him roughly three starts to look like his old self, too. Skubal may choose to get an early jump on his decision and have everything settled before the CBA negotiations truly begin, or he could wait until it's all sorted out, but he'll eventually sign one of the biggest pitcher deals in MLB history. And thanks to his midseason trade, there's no qualifying offer attached.

Seiya Suzuki, Cubs

He got a late start due to an injury in the WBC, but once he settled in, Suzuki let loose with the best season of his MLB career. He's hitting .266/.365/.479 (128 OPS+) with 30 doubles, 24 home runs, 81 RBI and a career-high 4.8 WAR. The bat has always been productive and this year is no different, but he's parlayed an improved approach at the plate into the highest walk rate of his career and has settled in nicely in the two hole in the Cubs' batting order behind the likely NL MVP in Pete Crow-Armstrong. Further, what is driving his large leap in WAR (his previous career high was 3.5) is vastly improved defense in right field. There had previously been concerns that he might need to become a full-time designated hitter, and instead he now grades out as above average in the field. His stock is high heading toward the offseason.

Randy Arozarena, Mariners

It's a well-timed career year for the three-time All-Star. Arozarena might set a career high in batting average this season and is a safe bet to set a new career best in OPS. He's already established a new high in runs scored and could also get there in hits and home runs. He's a 20-20 man for the sixth straight season. Slashing .278/.375/.476 (145 OPS+, easily a career best), he leads the American League with 103 runs scored and has a career-high 5.1 WAR. Keep in mind how much his home ballpark suppresses offense, too, as Arozarena is hitting .307/.391/.532 on the road. 

Luis Arraez, Phillies

The old school batsmith remains a polarizing figure in baseball. He's already won three batting titles and has his eyes on a fourth, but he's mostly a batting-average-only guy on offense, as evidenced by him leading the league in batting and only having a 116 OPS+. Still, that's 16 points above average at OPS! There is absolutely value in a guy hitting .316 with only 26 strikeouts in 626 plate appearances, especially in the right lineup.

The main area where Arraez has improved his stock has been on the defensive side. He was bad at second base the last few years to the point where he was borderline unplayable and was used often at first base instead -- and he really doesn't fit the power profile of a first baseman. This season, he's been a good defender at second. As an example, Baseball Savant's run value had him in the fourth percentile for fielding value in 2023, second percentile in 2024, third in 2025 and all the way up at the 94th percentile this season. 

Nick Martinez, Rays

There's a mutual option on his one-year deal with the Rays, but there's no way he exercises that after the season he's had. Martinez is 15-4 with a 2.94 ERA (144 ERA+) and 1.07 WHIP in 171 ⅓ innings in his first full season as a starter. He's been a valuable swingman before, but never this productive as a rotation man and he earned his first All-Star berth as a result. Martinez is 36 years old, so he's not going to break the bank or anything here, but he's definitely deserving of a multi-year deal and a guaranteed rotation spot after this season.

Five free agents who have hurt themselves

Freddy Peralta, Rays

There's a caveat here and it's that the Rays might've fixed Peralta just in the nick of time. He's now rocking a 0.78 ERA in his last four starts. Still, overall in 30 starts, Peralta has a 4.67 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 158 innings. The best season of his career came last year, when he won 17 games, had 5.5 WAR and finished fifth in Cy Young voting. He was traded in the offseason and ended up a major bust for the Mets, then was traded to the Rays after -0.4 WAR in 22 starts with New York. 

Even with the late hot streak, Peralta has probably put himself in a position of needing to take a one-year deal to try and pitch back to 2025 form in order to land a bigger payday. 

Ian Happ, Cubs

It's not a lost season or anything for Happ, as he has a 103 OPS+ and 2.6 WAR. In the previous four years, though, he averaged 118 OPS+ and 3.9 WAR, so it's a dip. The big problem here for the four-time Gold Glover is that he's a switch-hitter who is totally broken from one side. As a right-handed hitter, Happ is slashing .150/.223/.276 with 48 strikeouts in 127 at-bats. The career Cub might have to take a one-year deal and ditch the switch-hitting. 

Jazz Chisholm Jr., Yankees

He's one year late on the ideal time to hit free agency. Chisholm last season was a 30-30 guy with a 122 OPS+ and 4.1 WAR. This season, he's hitting .232/.312/.403 (98 OPS+) with 19 homers and 1.4 WAR. His defense was never great, but it's been bad this season, while his strikeout rate is back up around 30% after being 27.9% last season. There's still plenty of potential to dream on and he won't have trouble finding good offers heading toward his age-29 season, but this season has been a definitive step backward.

Daulton Varsho, Astros

From 2022-24, Varsho posted an average of 4.4 WAR per season. Last year, injuries held him to just 71 games, but in that time, he hit 20 homers with a 121 OPS+ and racked up 2.7 WAR. This season, he's hitting .224/.285/.355 (77 OPS+) with 0.7 WAR. He's been worse since the trade to Houston, hitting just .179 with a 53 OPS+ and -0.1 WAR. He wasn't a star, but he looked after last season like stardom might be possible. Now he's barely playable. 

Trent Grisham, Yankees

Yet another guy who had his great season one year too early. In 2025, Grisham hit 34 homers with a 123 OPS+ and 3.5 WAR, easily the best season of his career. In 121 games this year, he's hitting .211/.308/.395 (95 OPS+) with 0.6 WAR. Unfortunately for Grisham's bank account, 2025 seems an outlier, not a breakout. If a player hits free agency coming off a season like that, there will generally be at least one team willing to bet the changes made will stick moving forward. Now that we've seen him regress back to where he was pre-2025, few teams will be willing to dream on the upside.

The Bo Bichette question

We'll throw in an asterisk here because Bichette, who signed a three-year, $126 million deal with the Mets with player options for 2027 and 2028 might not opt out of his deal. Everyone assumed when he signed that this would just be for one year, akin to the Alex Bregman deal with the Red Sox. But Bichette overall has disappointed with a 97 OPS+ and 0.7 WAR. He's had an off year before (2024), but had otherwise been a hit and batting average machine in his career. This season, he's only hitting .264 compared to .294 in his Blue Jays career. The hunch is he exercises his $42 million player option for 2027 and stays with the Mets, given how disappointing he's been. Then again, he has the track record and has hit .292/.338/.446 in his last 91 games.