From war to weather, Australian farmers are planting spring crops in an uncertain world
Australian farmers are heading into spring with an unusual mix of optimism and uncertainty.
The latest crop forecast from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) predicts the nation’s farmers will harvest 61 million tonnes of winter crops.
That would be Australia’s fourth-largest winter harvest on record, sitting 16% above the ten-year average. Despite a dry winter forecast, better than expected rainfall boosted crop growth across South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales.
But these national figures don’t capture differences between regions, which can be enormous. For example, conditions in the Mediterranean climate of Western Australia’s cropping zone can be completely opposite to the graingrowing regions of northern NSW with their warm, wet summers.
And fluctuating global fuel and fertiliser markets, coupled with a potentially record-breaking El Niño, are forcing farmers to make some difficult decisions.
Wars and weather
Australian farmers are under pressure on multiple fronts. Here are two worth noting.
Protracted wars
Far beyond Australia’s borders, the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have made fuel, fertiliser, freight and commodity markets even more volatile.
For Australian farmers, the consequences are tangible. High fuel costs and supply constraints limit their ability to apply more fertiliser to their soils. As nitrogen prices soar and forecasts point to a dry end to the season, investing in a crop that may run out of water makes little economic sense.
High fertiliser costs and supply concerns have clearly influenced planting decisions in some regions, according to ABARES data. Some farmers have shifted from wheat to barley, as barley tends to cope better in dry conditions and typically has lower planting costs and fertiliser needs.
But not every farmer responds to fluctuating commodity prices in the same way. Many farmers base planting decisions on factors like plant biology and climatic conditions, rather than price forecasts. Some are sceptical about using ABARES forecasts to make immediate decisions, given government data often lags behind reality.
A strengthening El Niño
A potentially record-shattering El Niño is already underway. The Bureau of Meteorology’s spring outlook suggests it will bring drier conditions to much of southeast Australia and southwestern WA.
For farmers in these regions, this raises concerns about scarce rainfall and late frost. Crops in some areas are several weeks ahead of normal development, potentially leaving flowering and legume crops exposed to frosty conditions.
Read more: A record-shattering El Niño is almost here. Here’s what that means for the world’s weather
A mixed bag
To better understand what current conditions are like, we spoke to two farmers from Queensland and WA.
The southern states of Victoria and SA grow the vast majority of our national lentil and faba bean crops. Peter Wilson, a Queensland farmer, Grains Australia Pulse Council chair and director of Wilson International Trade, described conditions in those states as:
very good, with strong soil moisture heading into spring.
Conditions in Queensland and northern NSW’s chickpea regions have been much drier. Recent rain has helped, but local farmers expect yields around average or slightly below.
ABARES data tells a similar story. Lentil production is forecast to reach a record 2.3 million tonnes, while chickpea production could fall by 52%.
In WA, the picture is different again. Brad Burns, who farms in Balla northeast of Geraldton, told us the season began:
almost as good as I’ve witnessed.
Then the rain largely stopped. His farm received just 12 millimetres in August and some of his early wheat has suffered frost damage, something local farmers don’t often encounter. Burns’ early sown canola, wheat and lupin crops are on track to produce above average yields. But, in contrast to national averages, later sown crops will potentially be low yielding, especially without more rain.
Read more: Fertiliser prices and shortages are hamstringing our farmers. But we have other options
Are food shortages a possibility?
In the drought-stricken United Kingdom, farmers are warning of food shortages as they struggle to salvage what little crops they have. Globally, the United Nations predicts the imminent El Niño could push nearly 50 million vulnerable people into acute hunger.
Thankfully, Australians don’t need to worry about food shortages. Our country remains a major food exporter and the latest ABARES forecast is reassuring. It projects wheat production will hit 29.9 million tonnes, which is 3% above the ten-year average. Australia is set to produce 16.4 million tonnes of barley and 7.3 million tonnes of canola, up by 30% and 37% respectively, on their ten-year averages.
The biggest risk for consumers is volatile prices, not empty supermarket shelves. Fluctuating fuel and fertiliser markets are increasing the costs of on-farm production, processing and transport. High grain prices drive up the cost of flour, bread and animal feed, which in turn makes meat, eggs and dairy more expensive.
Read more: Europe is battling a record-breaking heatwave. What’s making it so severe?
What do our farmers need now?
Most importantly, we must recognise farmers make an invaluable contribution to Australia’s economy and social fabric. The 2026 National Farmer Wellbeing Report found 91% of Australian farmers feel undervalued, up from 76% in 2023.
Removing excess red tape should be another priority. Industry bodies such as Cattle Australia and the NSW Farmers’ Association say complex regulations around recruitment, pesticides and resource use are stopping farmers from producing the food and fibre Australia needs.
Government must also invest in measures that will help insulate Australian farmers from global commodity shocks and extreme weather. This includes funding research into crop genetics and lower-emission fertilisers.
Consumers can also help by buying Australian-grown produce and reducing food waste, where possible.
The latest national figures suggest Australia is heading towards another impressive harvest. But the experiences of local farmers – who may soon harvest one high-yielding crop while struggling to break even on another – reveal what national forecasts can’t capture. And what happens between now and harvest time remains to be seen.
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