ESPN·United States·Monday, September 14, 2026 at 01:30 AM

Debating five big overreactions to NFL Week 1 games, plus fantasy knee-jerk takes

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Dan Graziano

Dan GrazianoSep 13, 2026, 07:55 PM ET
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HOUSTON -- Week 1 overreactions are the absolute best. I make this point every season, but I can't contain my excitement. When you do a weekly overreactions column during the season, along with a few in the offseason around the draft, free agency, etc., there are times when you're reaching for overreactions. But not in Week 1. No way.

Almost everything is an overreaction in Week 1. If you had a specific concern about your team in the offseason -- such as C.J. Stroud turnovers, to pick a random example -- and that concern is the reason why that team lost its opener, you overreact.

See?!?! I TOLD you this was going to happen!!!

If you were looking forward to something about your team -- like the Bears possibly having the best offense of all time -- and it scores 59 points in Week 1, well, you're inclined to believe you were right about that, too.

Week 1 is the best! I could write 100 overreactions off what has happened this week, but that's a lot of work and you guys have other stuff to read too. So let's sort through five potential Week 1 takeaways and judge them as legitimate stances or irrational overreactions -- and we also hit a few fantasy football overreactions at the bottom.

Jump to:
Bears' offense will be forced to set scoring record?
Jackson to be first $70 million player?
Young will get long-term deal before Stroud?
Chargers were the offseason's most overhyped team?
Rams' "superteam" will miss playoffs?
Fantasy overreactions

The Bears are going to have to set the scoring record with the state of their defense

Second-year Bears head coach Ben Johnson made headlines this offseason when he said that his goal was to set the single-season team scoring record. He knows what this record is. It's 606 points -- 37.9 points per game -- by Peyton Manning and the 2013 Denver Broncos. The Bears scored 59 points against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday and are on pace to score 1,003 points. I'll save you having to open your calculator app -- that's more than 606.

Chicago had 552 yards in this game on 70 plays. They converted 10-of-14 third downs. Quarterback Caleb Williams had 269 passing yards and two touchdowns along with 65 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Two Bears running backs reached 100 rushing yards, with D'Andre Swift having 134 and three touchdowns.

But the Bears also gave up 37 points and 478 yards to the Panthers and weren't able to put the game away until the fourth quarter despite only punting twice.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

The concerns about Chicago's defense entering the season were legitimate. They're light in the secondary and the pass rush. They signed safety Coby Bryant in free agency, but he suffered a knee injury in camp and will miss a significant amount of time. Xavier Woods, who was signed in part to help make up for the Bryant loss, was inactive Sunday with a groin injury. The Bears are very much piecing things together in the secondary, and they're having to do it with fewer pieces than they planned.

Bryce Young and the Panthers are better offensively than given credit for, but the Bears will face tougher offenses than Carolina's this season. Johnson's offense should hum all year long, but there are going to be weeks when Dennis Allen may have to manufacture a miracle or two on defense for the Bears to remain on playoff pace.

Lamar Jackson could get $70 million per year on his next contract

One of the big questions entering this season is what the Ravens' offense would look like under new coordinator Declan Doyle and new head coach Jesse Minter. Week 1 provided a very encouraging answer. The Ravens scored 41 points in Sunday's victory over the Colts. Jackson was 17-for-25 for 324 passing yards and a touchdown and added 40 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground.

Running back Derrick Henry added 144 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Wide receiver Zay Flowers had 150 receiving yards and didn't even play in the second half. Jackson lost Flowers and rookie wideout Ja'Kobi Lane to injuries in this game and it didn't matter. The Ravens' offense did basically whatever it wanted to do. Jackson looks healthy and energized, and he often becomes the MVP when that happens.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Here's the deal: Jackson has two years left on his contract. It includes a no-trade clause and a clause that prohibits the Ravens from using the franchise or transition tag on him at the end of it. His 2027 cap number is currently projected to be $74.81 million unless the Ravens extend him next spring. They went to him about an extension this offseason and could not get one done.

Jackson has incredible leverage. If -- I say if because I do not know his mindset -- he wants to play out the deal and become a free agent in 2028 at age 31, he can do that. If he doesn't want to sign an extension with the Ravens, he doesn't have to. Jackson holds the cards. So if he does have a huge year and the Ravens do end up extending him, they shouldn't be expecting any hometown discounts. If you're going to do your team a favor, you do your deal the way Patrick Mahomes does his. Not the way Jackson seems to be doing his.

Whether he gets his new deal from the Ravens this season, next spring or he plays out the deal and hits the market in 2028, Jackson should be able to beat Mahomes' $64 million per year average in his next deal. If he wins another MVP award, he should clear that by a lot.

The Panthers will extend Bryce Young before the Texans extend C.J. Stroud

Young was pretty good in that ridiculous loss to the Bears. He had 361 passing yards and a touchdown while adding 10 rushing yards and a score on the ground. It's a promising start after he helped lead the Panthers to a division title and the postseason in 2025. Young has shown consistent improvement since being benched for Andy Dalton early in the 2024 season. While the Panthers didn't make a move to do an extension this offseason, it's not of the question for them to do one eventually. They like Young and still think he can be their franchise QB.

Stroud played well in the Texans' tough season-opening loss to Buffalo. He threw for 274 passing yards and two touchdowns and had the Texans marching toward a possible game-winning score in the final minute. Unfortunately, he took two bad sacks on that possession, with the second ending in a fumble that the Bills recovered to seal their 36-31 victory. Stroud also lost a fumble on Houston's first possession of the game. After his turnover-riddled postseason last January, turning the ball over twice in Week 1 wasn't exactly what he needed to do to change the discourse.

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Bills take down Texans 36-31 in a thriller

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Yeah, it's only been one week. The Texans still like Stroud and would be happy to sign him to an extension. One of the reasons they haven't yet is because Stroud wanted to bet on himself and see if he could get a top-of-market deal next spring after what he hopes will be a successful season with a better ending than last year's. That is still within the range of realistic outcomes.

There is a long way to go before Stroud and Young are talking to their respective teams about new deals next spring. If you -- based on one week of the 2026 season -- think you know how things are going to go when the time arises ... well, you're overreacting.

The Chargers were the most overhyped team of the offseason

Remember how awesome the Mike McDaniel/Justin Herbert combination was supposed to be? Well, nobody told the Arizona Cardinals, who thumped the offseason darlings 26-14 to salvage the day for the LaFleur family. Herbert was sacked three times, intercepted once and managed only 209 passing yards. The offense didn't offer much in the way of variety or creativity at all. It basically looked as if Herbert was locked onto Ladd McConkey and no one else. And once McConkey left the game with an injury, Herbert had nowhere to go.

Anybody's entitled to a tough Week 1. The Patriots and the Seahawks both lost in Week 1 last year and ended up playing in the Super Bowl. That said, this was a very disappointing performance from the Chargers' offense (and defense, for that matter). But it was the offense that was supposed to ascend to the next level with McDaniel coaching Herbert and the offensive line theoretically shored up.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

But only because they weren't the most overhyped team in Los Angeles!

The Rams could finish third in their division and miss the playoffs

The season is not off to a rollicking start for the NFL's latest attempt at a "superteam." The Rams' much-ballyhooed offseason ran aground in Australia in Week 1. Aaron Donald wasn't ready yet. Myles Garrett looked (and was) banged-up. The offense and defense both looked jet-lagged Thursday night in a 27-7 season-opening loss to the division-rival 49ers. And the defending-division champion Seahawks won 13-10 the night before over the Patriots.

The Rams have extra time to reset themselves -- their Week 2 game is at home next Monday night -- but they sure didn't waste any time in quieting the "can they go undefeated?" talk.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

First off, those other two teams are really good. The Seahawks, who won the most recent Super Bowl as a means of proving that point, lost their starting quarterback early in the game and still came back to beat the Patriots. Watching the synchronized flow state that is the Seattle defense makes me think it's still going to be tough for the Rams to look as good as them consistently -- no matter how many big names L.A. added in the offseason. And the 49ers, despite all the injury talk surrounding them throughout August, looked pretty healthy in Melbourne and now have a head-to-head win against the Rams in their pocket. Heck, even the Cardinals won on Sunday.

But the bigger concern is that the issues that surrounded this one game -- and remember, it is just one game -- were the sort of problems that could dismantle this promising Rams season if they continue. Garrett was placed on injured reserve Sunday morning and is out for the next four games. The two cornerbacks the Rams acquired in the offseason -- Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson -- are good but could be miscast if the Rams intend to play as much zone as they did in Week 1. Matthew Stafford is 38 years old, Davante Adams is 33, and there isn't much in terms of roster depth.

How the defense survives without Garrett will be a big story over the next month, as the Rams prepare to play (at least) the Giants, Broncos, Eagles and Bills without him. Sure, Donald getting on the field should help, but he was supposed to be a luxury piece. The Rams don't want to count too much on a 35-year-old who took the past two years off.

The Rams will probably be fine. But Week 1 was a reminder that it's just way too early to crown them or anyone else.

Quick-hitter fantasy overreactions

You need to pick up Jalen Coker on waivers. NOT AN OVERREACTION. Follow the money, folks. Coker was the Panthers' best wide receiver at the tail end of last season and looked like it again Sunday. They gave him a three-year, $34 million contract this offseason. Bryce Young is going to keep throwing him the ball.
Drake London is not startable until Michael Penix Jr. returns. OVERREACTION. You took London in what, the second round? You know you're starting him, and you know he's capable of producing with substandard QB play. The Falcons' offense is going to be hard to trust, but London will have his big weeks and you don't want to miss them.

Mike Evans is a lineup lock as long as he's healthy. NOT AN OVERREACTION. De'Zhaun Stribling getting hurt increases my confidence, but you saw what happened on Thursday night. It sure looked like Brock Purdy wanted to throw it to Evans every time, didn't it?
Chuba Hubbard and Jonathon Brooks are both legitimate flex options. OVERREACTION. This Bears' defense is going to be an easy target all season, folks. Carolina's rushing offense will have much tougher matchups around midseason. So if you have these players rostered and someone in your league overreacts and wants to make a trade, don't fight it.
You need to pick up the Bengals' defense. OVERREACTION. Come on, it's been one game and they recovered four fumbles. That isn't going to happen every week. Cincinnati has a great schedule with some juicy matchups, so feel good about streaming them, but that's as far as I can go right now.

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