Looming El Niño threatens to shatter SA’s summer harvest triumph

South Africa’s summer grain and oilseed production season will begin next month, and the outlook remains worrying.

South Africa is less than a month away from the typical start of the summer grain season in its eastern regions. 

Farmers in these regions will soon start preparing and tilling the land ahead of the 2026–27 season, particularly for yellow maize and soybeans, the predominant crops planted in South Africa’s eastern regions. The excellent soil moisture remains the main comfort for the farming community, even as the rainfall outlook for the year remains worrying, as we have written several times. 

In fact, the South African Weather Service (Saws) recently signalled some concerns in its monthly seasonal Climate Watch report at the end of August 2026.

“The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso), which is currently in an El Niño state, has strengthened, and current predictions indicate that it will continue strengthening towards a very strong El Niño state within the next couple of months and last at least until the end of the 2026/27 summer season. The typical signs that El Niño will affect South Africa are starting to materialise over the Pacific Ocean, and it is expected that South Africa will experience the typical impacts of drier and warmer conditions during this coming summer,” it said.

El Niño concern reflected in commodity prices

These messages from weather authorities, combined with what we have observed in other countries, have raised concerns about the upcoming season. We also see such concerns partly reflected in the commodity prices.

For example, on 18 September 2026, the white and yellow maize spot prices were up by 9% and 10%, respectively, from a month ago, trading around R3,965 per ton and R3,931 per ton. Moreover, the soybean spot price rose 13% from a month ago to R8,953 per ton. 

Ordinarily, grain prices wouldn’t rise this much after a season of abundance, when maize and soybean production were at record levels in the 2025-26 season. 

For example, South Africa’s 2025–26 maize production estimate is 17.4 million tons, up 4% from last season and the largest harvest on record – about 9.5 million tons of white maize and 7.9 million tons of yellow maize. 

Such a maize crop, combined with likely large carryover stocks from the current season, signals that South Africa will once again be a net exporter of maize in the 2026-27 marketing year (corresponding to the 2025-26 production season). 

South Africa’s annual maize consumption is 12 million tons. Exports are more than 3 million tons, with ample carry-over stocks for next year. For soybeans, the 2025-26 harvest is estimated at a record 3 million tons, largely owing to higher yields in some regions and large-area plantings (up 9% year on year). 

Clearly, there are still ample supplies in the silos across the country, but there are concerns about the season ahead, and that is what seems to be among the major price drivers. 

While these grain prices have increased, there is no major consumer food price inflation concern in the near to medium term. 

Tricky season ahead for farming

Rising maize prices typically lag by three to four months before they show up in grain-related products at the retail level. Therefore, consumer food price inflation will remain lower this year, and we can only expect these increases to show in 2027. 

Clearly, we are approaching a tricky season ahead. The focus now is how much farmers will plant for the various summer grains and oilseeds, and how the season unfolds amid the worrying weather outlook. 

The pressures on the farming sector aren’t limited to weather concerns; they also include higher input costs, mainly fertiliser and fuel, driven by the US-Iran war. 

Still, with better soil moisture following last summer’s rainy season, I remain optimistic that South African farmers will still plant a decent area of grains and oilseeds. DM