College football bowl projections: Slotting all 46 games after Week 7's historic run of upsets

No wonder the SEC finally jumped on board for a 24-team College Football Playoff, which may come as soon as the 2027 season. For the first time in the CFP era, we expect at least two -- perhaps several -- three-loss SEC teams in the bracket this season, as chaos continued within the conference in Week 7.

Ranked No. 1 and unbeaten two weeks ago, Texas' CFP path is murky following Saturday's loss to Florida, which came before top-ranked Georgia fell victim to an upset at the hands of Auburn and Alabama lost at Tennessee, three of many stunning results across college football that shook up this week's bracket and bowl projections.

Theoretically, this is what we could be looking at in the SEC over the second half of the season leading into the CFP selection committee's final rankings during conference championship weekend. These are projected final records, not where these teams stand entering Week 8:

• Georgia 10-2
• Tennessee 10-2
• Ole Miss 10-2
• Alabama 9-3
• Kentucky 9-3
• LSU 9-3
• Texas 9-3
• Florida 9-3
• Missouri 8-4

Good luck determining the league tiebreaker on who gets to play Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, the last of its kind if we move to a 24-team playoff next fall. There's going to be a handful of SEC teams crying at the selection committee for not getting in this season, but there aren't enough spots to keep everyone who answers to Greg Sankey happy.

Ah, this season has truly been exhilarating, and we're only halfway through.

Cricket Celebration

Projection: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

Salute to Veterans

Projection: Buffalo vs. Louisiana 

Frisco Football Classic

Projection: Texas State vs. USF

Here's an easy 250-mile trek to Frisco for Texas State, which crossed the 60-point plateau for the second time this season during Thursday's 66-27 victory over Colorado State. USF would much rather play in the Gasparilla Bowl, a home game for the Bulls, despite recent attendance issues at Raymond James Stadium. Next season, USF is expected to open their new 35,000-seat on-campus venue.

Boca Raton 

Projection: Western Michigan vs. Appalachian State

The Mountaineers erased a 10-point deficit to spoil Coastal Carolina's "90s Night" on Friday, pushing to 1-1 in the Sun Belt ahead of this week's Thursday night showdown against unbeaten JMU. There's a chance the Dukes (7-0) will be ranked when they travel to Boone, N.C. for one of the Group of Six's most important games left this season.

Gasparilla

Projection: Virginia vs. Texas A&M

Tampa in December probably wasn't what Texas A&M had in mind when this season began. A potential Gasparilla Bowl matchup with Virginia would be disappointing for a program spending too much money to settle for this destination. That's the uncomfortable reality facing Mike Elko, whose Aggies have dropped three of their four SEC games as after starting the season in the top 10. 

Myrtle Beach

Projection: South Alabama vs. Liberty

Puerto Rico 

Projection: UAB vs. Delaware

Potato 

Projection: Air Force vs. Toledo

Cure 

Projection: FIU vs. Louisiana Tech

FIU finishes out its three-game stretch of mid-week games on Tuesday against Middle Tennessee, a majority opportunity at home against a fellow 3-3 Conference USA opponent. Last week's 27-24 loss at Jacksonville State wasn't fatal to the Panthers' league title hopes, but it hurts. The Gamecocks are now unbeaten in conference play with a favorable remaining slate.

Independence 

Projection: Iowa State vs. UConn

The Cyclones are 3-3 at midseason, but all three losses were to top-20 teams. With only one ranked opponent left, Iowa State's in a great position to finish strong and get to bowl eligibility. UConn's postseason trek begins next week at home against UMass in a Friday night affair. After that, tough matchups against Air Force, North Carolina and JMU could push the Huskies on the threshold of missing out unless they finish strong.

New Orleans

Projection: James Madison vs. Jacksonville State

JMU probably needs Boise State to suffer another loss to have a real shot at reaching the College Football Playoff for a second straight season. Oregon State, if it wins out, could have an argument, too. The Dukes handled Georgia State for their seventh straight win to open Bill Napier's first season, but are not going to have the strength of schedule compared to Boise State.

Poinsettia 

Projection: Arizona State vs. Boise State

Armed Forces 

Projection: Kansas State vs. Army

Frisco Bowl

Projection: New Mexico vs. North Texas

Hawaii

Projection: North Dakota State vs. Fresno State 

New Mexico 

Projection: San Diego State vs. UNLV

Mayo

Projection: North Carolina vs. Penn State

No projections are safe for the Nittany Lions, who dropped to 0-4 in Big Ten play and 3-4 overall after Saturday's loss at Michigan. Few expected Penn State to take three steps back under its new regime, but the schedule does lighten up from here with Purdue, Rutgers and Maryland among the final five opponents. Considering Penn State's one of only two Big Ten teams to miss Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon this fall, the 2026 campaign feels like a massive letdown.

Pinstripe

Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Northwestern

The Hokies under first-year coach James Franklin snapped a two-game skid in the ACC against Georgia Tech and now have realistic hopes of getting to eight wins this fall and a quality bowl invite. Trips to SMU, Clemson and Miami remain for a team that has found an offensive rhythm behind Penn State transfer quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer and sophomore running back Jeffrey Overton Jr.

68 Ventures 

Projection: FAU vs. Eastern Michigan

Fenway 

Projection: Louisville vs. UTSA

Cactus 

Projection: Cincinnati vs. Michigan

The Wolverines finally have a Big Ten win and may have a new quarterback, too. Tommy Carr led multiple touchdown drives in the second half of Michigan's victory over Penn State, delivering the final blow himself on a scoring scamper. He executed Jason Beck's offense with intention and moved ahead of the struggling Bryce Underwood in the process.

Birmingham

Projection: South Carolina vs. Pittsburgh

Left for dead at 0-3 in the SEC a few weeks ago, South Carolina responded with a blowout win at Florida and used its open date to recover from early-season injuries ahead of next weekend's home bout with Tennessee. From outside the bowl picture in September to the schedule not appearing as daunting, Shane Beamer has alleviated much of the job heat and should be able to get to bowl eligibility.

Military

Projection: NC State vs. Memphis

Pop-Tarts

Projection: SMU vs. Texas Tech

Alamo

Projection: Utah vs. Oregon

The Alamo Bowl gets its pick of teams from a pair of pools -- the Big 12 and the Pac-12/former Pac-12. It would be hard to pass up an opportunity to get the Utes and Ducks here if they're available. Unbeaten after Week 7, Utah remains in an ideal CFP position nearing the final month. The Utes host Houston next week and travel to Cincinnati before their game of the year against BYU. For now, we're labeling Utah's regular-season losses as the games at BYU and at Arizona the following week. That would mean the Utes land at 10-2 overall here.

Gator 

Projection: Duke vs. LSU

The Tigers control their own CFP destiny. However, they still have to go to Auburn next week, host Alabama, Texas and travel to Tennessee. Can LSU win all four of those games? Those squads are just as hungry to stay in the CFP picture, too. The bad news is LSU currently loses the "tiebreaker" of sorts with Ole Miss and Kentucky if all three of those teams finish with the same record and similar resumes.

Music City

Projection: Wisconsin vs. Auburn

Another week, another No. 1 team going down. This time, it was Auburn's road heroics at Georgia thanks to tough, between-the-tackle running from Byrum Brown and a couple timely stops defensively. Alex Golesh said after the game that he is rebuilding the Tigers into a national power, and the win over the Bulldogs was the first step toward that goal. 

ReliaQuest 

Projection: Nebraska vs. Mississippi State

It's a tough ask for Mississippi State to win a conference game on the road without Kamario Taylor and Fluff Bothwell. Mississippi State should still be ranked in Sunday's updated top 25, but it feels like CFP hopes are all but over for a squad with games remaining against Oklahoma, Texas and Ole Miss.

Sun 

Projection: Clemson vs. Washington

Las Vegas

Projection: Arizona vs. Oklahoma

All the Sooners wanted was a chance, and they got the football back twice in the fourth quarter down a point against Kentucky, but couldn't manufacture points in a deflating 21-13 loss that included a late pick-six by the Wildcats off John Mateer. Coming off the program's win over then No. 1 Texas in Dallas, Oklahoma never found a rhythm offensively. Now at 3-3 overall, the alternating wins and losses won't cut it as far as CFP hopes are concerned.

Texas

Projection: Houston vs. Texas

Could the CFP selection committee leave the Longhorns out again? This time despite a huge nonconference victory over Ohio State? It's plausible if Texas finishes 9-3 and there are a couple of one-loss Big Ten at-large possibilities. Looking at you, Iowa and UCLA. Neither of those two teams would have as many quality wins as the Longhorns, but strength of record could outweigh conference strength. Truthfully, Texas simply isn't playing well enough right now to get to nine wins with what's left on the slate, not to mention quarterback issues and the injury to Colin Simmons.

Citrus

Projection: Iowa vs. Florida

Like UCLA, Iowa's journey to a potential 11-1 finish and an unexpected trip to the Big Ten Championship could certainly happen with Ohio State banged up and Indiana already saddled with a loss in conference play. However, we think the Hawkeyes lose another game somewhere.

Credit to Jon Sumrall's team for not backing down despite trailing by 14 points at Texas during the first half. They wilted under pressure the previous two weeks before posting their second win of the season against a top-10 opponent. Instead of a three-game skid entering the open date before Georgia, Florida should be back in the top-25 after the win and is very much alive in the CFP discussion. The consolation prize would be a short trek from Gainesville to Orlando if the Gators fail to get in. What a wild year thus far in the SEC.

First Responder

Projection: Florida State vs. Minnesota

Liberty

Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Missouri

Oklahoma State's loss to Houston all but assures the Cowboys won't make the Big 12 Championship Game. Missouri will enter its bye week needing to win out and finish 10-2 to secure a playoff berth. With games against top-15s Texas, Georgia and Kentucky left, the opportunity is there, but it's quite a mountain to climb.

Arizona 

Projection: Ohio vs. Wyoming

Holiday

Projection: Wake Forest vs. USC

USC's date with Ohio State in two weeks doesn't look as daunting as it once did if Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin is unavailable, but that one lacks as much meaning if the Trojans fail to show at Wisconsin next week. Road games in the Big Ten have been a chore for this staff, and the Badgers are much improved after seeing their four-game winning streak snapped at UCLA in Week 7.

College Football Playoff 

First round

Projection: (9) Alabama at (8) UCLA

One of five SEC teams in our new projection, Alabama's game at LSU on Nov. 7 could be for one of the final spots in the bracket. Consecutive losses have stunned the Crimson Tide, but the Tigers are the only ranked team left. The Iron Bowl could be attractive if Auburn keeps it up and serves as the spoiler during rivalry weekend.

The Bruins just keep winning. Many -- including myself -- thought the Bruins could lose to Wisconsin on Saturday after losing Nico Iamaleava for the season and the Badgers coming off a bye, but it didn't happen. The best-case scenario for UCLA, aside from a 13-0 regular season capped by a Big Ten title, would be to suffer a late loss and watch two others play on championship weekend so it can begin CFP prep. Just don't tell Chesney that.

Projection: (10) Kentucky at (7) Ole Miss

Could the SEC get a fifth team in? It may come down to a 10-win team from another Power Four vs. a three-loss SEC squad with potentially multiple ranked victories. Why not Will Stein and Kentucky? This team is rolling right now. We're not necessarily projecting three losses for the Wildcats. They're 6-1 right now and still very much in the SEC Championship conversation.

Has Pete Golding and the Ole Miss defense finally figured it out? The Rebels' 28-point victory over Missouri was notable because Ole Miss dominated at the line of scrimmage for the first time this season against a top-tier opponent. That means something moving forward with Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma and Mississippi State still left to play for the one-loss Rebels. Ole Miss misses Kentucky during the regular season.

Projection: (11) Notre Dame at (6) Tennessee

The last-team-in designation this season is going to be hotly debated in the hours leading up to the CFP's final reveal. Could a one-loss Texas Tech be skipped over in favor of Notre Dame? Watching the Fighting Irish get pushed around by BYU in Provo for much of the contest wasn't on the bingo card, but championship-level teams play their best when pressed into a corner, and Notre Dame has one final chance to deliver against Miami later this year. This is not a team we've projected to go unbeaten at any point this fall, by the way. Now, Notre Dame must beat the Hurricanes in November to guarantee a top-12 seed. If not, 10-2 is where things get tricky.

Tennessee has two ranked opponents left after a momentum-seizing victory over Alabama. That's about as favorable a slate you could want down the stretch in a conference beating itself up every weekend this season. At worst, the Vols need to split their remaining matchups with Kentucky and LSU and reach 10 wins. Next weekend's tussle at South Carolina will likely nuke CFP hopes with a loss, unless Tennessee goes unbeaten in November.

Projection: (12) Oregon State (5) Indiana

Week 7 in college football was crazy enough, so why not toss the Beavers in as the 12-seed this week with an 11-win, Pac-12 champion projection dictated by all-everything wideout Jesse Legree? There's not a team playing more complete football than Oregon State since Week 3, on the heels of five straight blowout victories. The dilemma here is JMU and where the Dukes land. If they're 13-0, it's unlikely the selection committee would put a two-loss Group of Six team ahead of Napier's unblemished group.

We're projecting the Hoosiers to finish as the Big Ten's runner-up this season at 11-2 overall, without being docked for losing in the conference title game. That would slot Indiana somewhere in the 6-8 range and guarantee a first-round home game. For the defending national champions, seeding no longer matters after their 22-game winning streak was snapped against Ohio State. Getting to the CFP is the top priority from here.

Quarterfinals

PEACH BOWL — Projection: (9) Alabama vs. (1) Miami

The Hurricanes had won five straight games at home by at least 28 points prior to Saturday night's letdown, one that tosses a wrench in the ACC title conversation and this playoff bracket. They're not going to look flawless every week and have a lot to fix after that one. We're downgrading Miami, but keeping the Hurricanes in the No. 1 spot for now, considering all the other elites that lost on Saturday.

Give the Seminoles credit for not giving up under Mike Norvell despite obvious distractions his regime faces at midseason. For Miami, staying healthy before the battle at Notre Dame is the goal. I thought we were finished worrying about Mario Cristobal losing to ACC teams as a double-digit favorite? That was a close one. 

COTTON BOWL — Projection: (7) Ole Miss vs. (2) Georgia

ROSE BOWL — Projection: (6) Tennessee vs. (3) Ohio State

There's reason to worry if you're a Buckeyes fan following Julian Sayin's throwing arm injury suffered at Indiana. It was a game Ohio State absolutely needed to win, but the prognosis for when the quarterback will return is unclear. Ryan Day  said he's out for "several weeks" after the game. Could this be fatal for the Buckeyes with USC, Oregon, Northwestern and Nebraska looming? Yes, but this team has the talent to lean on its defense for a few games until Sayin returns. That doesn't mean they're going to go unbeaten for the remainder and get to the Big Ten title game, though. 

FIESTA BOWL — Projection: (5) Indiana vs. (4) BYU

This BYU win over Notre Dame sends a message to the CFP selection committee that the Big 12 is a potential two-
bid league this season. The Cougars have the look of a top-four seed, and their trip to Utah next month will be for a trip to the conference title game.