NFL Week 3 best bets: Seahawks win big in Sam Darnold's return, plus three player props to target

The Week 3 card features two receiver props, a low-scoring Panthers-Browns prediction and a Saints same-game combination

Sep 25, 2026 at 11:19 am ET • 5 min read

After a tough Week 1, we got back on track in Week 2. That's good news. As I said at the start of the week, the more we find out about these teams, the better we get (hopefully).

Stefon Diggs hit his five receptions, Jordan Love threw a pair of touchdowns to cash that bet, and the Rams won on "Monday Night Football." I had tied that to an any-time Puka Nacua touchdown, but Nacua didn't play (this column comes out on Friday, and last Friday, his status was up in the air). Hopefully you tailed the Los Angeles pick at least.

Regarding the misses, the Eagles, as seven-point favorites, barely escaped the Titans. Saquon Barkley getting hurt and missing a significant amount of the game didn't help, but clearly I underestimated Tennessee, and I also underestimated how much the Philadelphia offensive line and running game is struggling. I also missed on Justin Jefferson 80+ receiving yards. The game was took place in an absolute downpour. Sometimes, that's just how it goes.

Again, more knowledge is good. Week 2 was better than Week 1. Let's make Week 3 better than Week 2. As always, odds are via DraftKings.

Seahawks (-7.5) cover vs. Commanders (-108)

Let's do a quick rundown of what the Commanders are facing:

• Jayden Daniels is out.
• The Commanders' best offensive lineman (LT Laremy Tunsil) is out. Their second-best lineman, RG Sam Cosmi, is in concussion protocol and hasn't practiced this week. In comes maybe the best defensive line, best defense and best defensive mind in the NFL.
• In fact, Washington's injury report is littered with significant names all over the place.
• The Commanders' secondary just got shredded. In comes Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who had three touchdowns last week.
• Sam Darnold is expected to be back for Seattle, though honestly, Drew Lock has played excellently in his stead.
• The Seahawks won this matchup 38-7 last year.

Need I say more? I'd be surprised if the Commanders keep this within single digits, so if you want an alternate line, be my guest. I'll stick with Seattle -7.5 here.

Jameson Williams 60+ receiving yards (+126)

Jameson Williams has to get going at some point, right? He has just six catches for 78 yards through two weeks, and his longest catch is just 22 yards. That's not the Jameson Williams we've come to know. He's a big play waiting to happen, and we shouldn't have to wait much longer.

This week will be the week it happens. The Jets' defense has impressed thus far, but it helped that they played the Titans and then faced the Packers in the pouring rain. In the safe confines of Ford Field, the Lions -- and especially Williams -- are set to have a big day. Plus, given the state of the Lions' defense, this could be a high-scoring game that forces both offenses to keep their foot on the gas pedal.

Williams is still seeing solid under-the-hood numbers. He has 13 targets, and he's playing 90% of Detroit's offensive snaps. Two drops early have hurt, but Jared Goff sung his praises this offseason. He averaged 67 receiving yards per game in 2024 and 66 last year. Coming off a mini-bye, the Lions will have some big opportunities dialed up for their speedster.

Panthers at Browns UNDER 42.5 (-112)

Bryce Young has been superb to start this season, but check these numbers out:

Bryce Young This Season	vs. Man	vs. Zone
Comp pct	44%	76%
Yards per attempt	4.4	12.7
Passer rating	67.1	133.4
EPA per dropback	0.03	0.46

Guess who plays the most man coverage in the NFL by a wide margin? The Browns!

It's a small sample size, of course, but Young also struggled vs. man coverage last year. There are concerns about whether Jalen Coker can play, too, and the ground game is yet to get going.

Meanwhile, I'm not buying the Deshaun Watson one-game renaissance. If he plays poorly at home, the boo birds will come out quickly, and it could snowball in the wrong direction from there. Carolina's defense played much better in Week 2, and it should be able to do so again here.

Ladd McConkey 60+ receiving yards (+104)

The Chargers' offense has been an absolute mess this year. If you want a breakdown of why it's bad and how it can be fixed, JP Acosta explained it earlier today.

But the defense has also been underwhelming, and it's facing the Bills' excellent offense. You know what that means? The Chargers will be chasing points all day long.

Ladd McConkey has been one of the very, very few bright spots. Not only has he looked good, but the Chargers' offense has actually looked good when he's on the field. No, really!

• Chargers offense with McConkey on the field: 0.12 EPA per play (would be tied for sixth-best in NFL this season)
• Chargers offense with McConkey off the field: -0.41 EPA per play (would be worst on record -- since 2000)

Anyway, McConkey has been a full participant in practice this week after leaving Week 1 with a rib injury and being questionable entering Week 2. He should have a big day.

Saints (-3) cover vs. Raiders AND Chris Olave 6+ receptions (+188)

I love combining these two here for a solid payout. New Orleans is coming off a 24-17 win over the Raiders. In the fourth quarter this season, Tyler Shough is 24 for 31 (77.4% comp pct) for 271 yards, with two touchdowns and no interceptions.

Plus, I don't think we're giving this Saints defense enough credit. Maybe it's because of their history with previous teams, but former Chargers coach Brandon Staley has been terrific as New Orleans' defensive coordinator, and the same goes for former No. 2 overall pick Chase Young. Since the start of last season, the Saints are 11th in defensive EPA per play. Young had 10 sacks in just 12 games last year and is off to another terrific start. His 18% pressure rate is 10th among 94 players with at least 40 pass rush snaps.

And then there's Chris Olave, who is just so, so good. He's seen 23 targets through two weeks and has 18 catches. He can win all over the field, and his route running is superb. The Raiders' secondary has been one of the pleasant surprises early this year, but they've yet to see a player of this caliber. Olave should have another huge day.

Season record: 4-6

Week 3 picks

• Packers beat Falcons (receipt)
• Bills beat Chargers
• Panthers beat Browns
• Lions beat Jets
• Texans beat Colts
• Chiefs beat Dolphins
• Giants beat Titans
• Bengals beat Steelers
• Seahawks beat Commanders
• Jaguars beat Patriots
• 49ers beat Cardinals
• Vikings beat Buccaneers
• Ravens beat Cowboys
  
• Saints beat Raiders
• Broncos beat Rams
• Eagles beat Bears