ASML’s chip equipment sales to China soar 109% despite US export curb push

Dutch semiconductor equipment giant ASML expects China to account for about 20 per cent of its total sales this year, after seeing shipments to the market more than double during the previous quarter despite mounting US pressure for tighter export restrictions on less advanced chipmaking machinery.

The company’s sales to China surged 109 per cent in the third quarter compared with the previous three months, according to financial results released on Wednesday. That took China’s share of ASML’s machine sales to 23 per cent, up from 14 per cent in the second quarter.

The revenue jump comes as Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten faces pressure from Washington to tighten restrictions on sales of chipmaking machines to China.

Last month, Jetten expressed confidence in a Bloomberg interview that the Netherlands would reach an agreement with the United States regarding Washington’s proposed Match Act, which aims to further restrict ASML’s ability to export less advanced lithography machines to China.

Sources familiar with the matter previously told the South China Morning Post that Jetten was scheduled to visit China next spring.

Despite the geopolitical headwinds, ASML raised the lower end of its full-year 2026 sales guidance to €44 billion (US$49.25 billion) and pinned its gross margin forecast at around 56 per cent, the upper end of its earlier range, accompanied by further capacity expansion plans.

The company expected revenue in the fourth quarter to reach “between €14.2 and €15.2 billion”, said Roger Dassen, the group’s chief financial officer, adding that sales momentum was “really very, very strongly building up”.

The strong 2026 revenue – which is expected to grow by 36 per cent – is mainly being driven by robust demand for ASML’s advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines, sales of which are set to rise by over 45 per cent this year.

Revenue in the non-EUV business is expected to expand by 20 per cent, with installed base business revenue rising 50 per cent, according to Dassen.

With growth momentum expected to continue into 2027 and 2028, ASML said its planned 30 per cent capacity expansion in low-NA EUV systems for the next two years would not be enough to meet demand.

“We have to do more and we are looking basically at ways, especially in 2028 and beyond, to further extend our capacity,” said Christophe Fouquet, the group’s CEO, adding that ASML’s customers were also planning further capacity expansions for the coming years.

“A lot of our discussions with our customers now are shifting in fact beyond 2027. A lot of order intake for 2028. But also some strong interest to already place orders for 2029 and sometimes even 2030.”

ASML shares were up by more than 1 per cent in Amsterdam at around noon local time following the announcement.