The next government faces transport tests that new roads or cheap fares won’t solve

In an election campaign, not all transport spending is talked about in the same way. A new motorway might be presented as an investment in the economy, while subsidising public transport can stir debate about the cost to taxpayers.

This election is no different. National is promising more major roads, while Labour and the Greens are pledging public transport fare caps, among other measures. The latter proposals have already attracted scrutiny over how they’d be paid for.

Moreover, these debates tend to ignore some obvious realities facing households in 2026. Amid soaring petrol and diesel prices, neither new roads nor commitments to onshore fuel reserves would do much to ease the immediate cost pressures on motorists.

And fare caps and subsidies can do little to improve a public transport system that is unreliable or simply unavailable in many places. For many New Zealanders, driving isn’t a choice but a necessity.

Arguably, transport decisions made over the past three years have hardly eased that dependence. What happens over the coming three could determine whether New Zealanders gain more transport choices, or remain just as dependent on their cars.

The cost of having no alternative

On paper, New Zealand is spending impressive sums on public transport.

The government’s current National Land Transport Programme allocates NZ$6.4 billion to public transport infrastructure and services over three years, including a 41% increase in indicative funding for operating services.

But the government also expects councils to recover more of their public transport costs through passenger fares and other revenue. That could mean higher fares, making public transport less attractive to people who already own cars.

Much of this electoral term has meanwhile been spent reversing, replacing or scrapping the previous transport policies, including some free and discounted public transport fares, the Clean Car Discount and the Road to Zero safety strategy.

In 2024, transport accounted for 18% of New Zealand’s gross greenhouse gas emissions, with road transport responsible for 91% of that total. Yet the transport programme forecasts $7 billion for state highway improvements and $460 million for walking and cycling, largely to complete existing projects and maintain infrastructure.

Its explanation for the lack of new walking and cycling projects was notably brief: “no available funding”. As well as carbon budgets, a car-centred transport system can weigh considerably on household ones, particularly when people have little choice about how they travel.

Consider a family moving somewhere with a cheaper mortgage, only to discover both adults need cars to get to work. Once repayments, insurance and repairs are included, the savings on housing begin to disappear.

And once a household owns a car, taking public transport may offer little financial incentive. Most ownership costs remain the same whether the car is driven or not, leaving bus fares to compete with the cost of petrol and parking.

An electric car might save on fuel, but not everyone can afford one. For families relying on an old petrol car, a reliable bus to schools and shops may be more immediately useful.

What should the next government deliver?

Aside from the immediate cost of getting around, the next government faces difficult decisions about maintaining existing infrastructure and funding new projects.

Across New Zealand’s infrastructure, Te Waihanga (the New Zealand Infrastructure Commission) expects around 60% of future spending to be needed for renewal and replacement. Every new road adds to the maintenance bill taxpayers will eventually have to foot.

New public transport infrastructure can of course make a positive difference, provided the services needed to support it are properly funded. Auckland’s rail network recorded 528,007 boardings in the City Rail Link’s first week, its busiest week ever. While some passengers were simply trying it out, the figures suggest considerable public interest.

But attracting passengers is only the beginning. Keeping them requires operating funding, connecting services and affordable fares. Labour’s promise to cap weekly public transport fares at $20 in the main centres and $10 elsewhere could reduce costs for commuters, but cheaper tickets alone won’t help people whose bus or train services are over-stretched or unreliable.

Major road projects deserve similar scrutiny. A new lane can look like the obvious cure for congestion. Once it opens, though, people change routes, travel at busier times or make trips they previously avoided. A study of US cities found driving grew roughly in proportion to interstate highway capacity.

Read more: Election Policy Tracker: your guide to what the parties are promising during the 2026 election campaign

That presents a challenge for promises to build our way out of congestion, and one that should be reflected in project business cases. The full costs also need to be clear, particularly where private finance is involved and investors expect a return.

Motorists also face changes to how they pay for using the road network.

The government is working towards replacing petrol excise duty with road user charges for all vehicles, meaning motorists would pay according to distance travelled rather than fuel purchased. It has also enabled councils to develop congestion charges for busy roads at peak times, subject to approval.

Both approaches have potential benefits, but their effects will depend on how they are implemented. Families living further from city centres need to know what they’d be paying over a normal week. Any promised public transport alternative needs a realistic route, timetable and budget.

And importantly, not every improvement requires a major new project. Councils should be able to extend a bus lane or fix a dangerous crossing within a three-year term. Parties promising longer-term solutions should also explain what can be achieved sooner.

Ultimately, the test of an affordable transport policy should be whether it gives households more practical choices. That means not just cheaper journeys, but reliable alternatives that could allow more Kiwis to get by with one car – or none.

From the cost of living to how best to tackle climate change, the coming election involves some big choices.

This article is part of The Conversation’s Election 2026 series: expert analysis of the major policy debates and the big challenges New Zealand’s next government will face.