2027 Polls: ‘84% intend to vote, but only 41% committed’ – Yiaga survey

A new voter intention survey by Yiaga Africa has revealed a wide gap between Nigerians’ stated intention to vote in the 2027 general elections and their actual commitment to participating in the polls.

The survey found that while 84 per cent of respondents said they were likely or very likely to vote in the 2027 elections, only 41 per cent of that group said they were certain and committed to voting.

The findings were presented in the third edition of Yiaga Africa’s National Voter Intention Survey (NVIS 3.0) at a policy roundtable on voting intentions ahead of the 2027 general elections in Abuja on Wednesday.

The survey was designed to assess voter interest and participation and identify factors that could encourage or discourage Nigerians from taking part in the elections.

According to Yiaga Africa, 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory participated in the September 2026 survey.

Of the respondents, 2,066 were interviewed by telephone, while 404 were interviewed face-to-face, particularly in rural communities.

The Senior Manager and Head of Knowledge Management and Learning at Yiaga Africa, Safiya Bichi, said the mixed approach ensured that people without access to telephones, especially those in rural communities, were not excluded.

“Over 2,400 people were surveyed. We used a mixed method where we used telephone lines and traditional surveys to reach out to people and administer the survey questions,” Ms Bichi said.

She said the survey was intended to provide a broader picture of Nigerians’ attitudes towards the 2027 elections.

Ms Bichi said the 84 per cent intention to vote recorded in the latest survey did not necessarily translate into a firm commitment to participate in the election.

“84 per cent of citizens said they intended to vote, but only 41 per cent are committed to vote in this election,” she said.

She explained that a significant proportion of those who said they intended to vote had not yet decided which candidate they would support.

According to her, 44 per cent of the 84 per cent who said they intended to vote had not yet settled on their preferred candidates.

This, she said, presents political parties and candidates with a large pool of voters who could still change their preferences before the election.

She also said between six per cent and 10 per cent of respondents were either disinterested or undecided about participating in the election.

The latest figure represents an increase in overall voter intention compared with the first two rounds of the survey.

Yiaga Africa said 77 per cent of respondents indicated that they were likely to vote in the first NVIS, conducted in December, while the figure dropped to 73 per cent in the second survey before rising to 84 per cent in the third round.

However, the survey showed that the proportion of respondents who were “very likely” to vote has continued to decline.

According to the organisation, 52 per cent of respondents in the first survey said they were very likely to vote. That figure fell to 48 per cent in the second survey and 47 per cent in the third.

Ms Bichi said the difference suggested that although more Nigerians expressed an intention to vote, their certainty about actually participating in the election remained a concern.

Insecurity threatens participation

Insecurity emerged as one of the most significant threats to voter participation.

The survey found that 61 per cent of respondents feared that violence could prevent them from voting.

The concern was particularly pronounced in the North-East, where 78 per cent of respondents identified violence as a potential barrier to voting.

The survey also found that 82 per cent of respondents were very concerned that insecurity could affect the conduct of the elections.

The findings point to a dual concern among voters: fear of violence during the electoral process and doubts about the ability of security agencies to protect voters.

Only 48 per cent of respondents said they trusted security agencies to protect their votes during the elections.

Ms Bichi said improved security remained the strongest factor likely to motivate Nigerians to participate in the 2027 elections.

According to the survey, 83 per cent of respondents said improved security would motivate them to vote.

Another factor, 38 per cent of respondents identified as better logistics, while 20 per cent cited stronger candidates.

Ms Bichi said security and the quality of candidates had remained among the major factors influencing voter participation across the three rounds of the survey.

Confidence in INEC falls

The survey also revealed declining confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Only 34 per cent of respondents said they were confident in INEC ahead of the 2027 elections.

This is down from 45 per cent in each of the first two rounds of the NVIS.

Confidence in INEC was particularly low in some regions. Yiaga Africa said 62 per cent of respondents in the South-east expressed a lack of confidence in the electoral commission. In comparison, the North-East recorded 62 per cent in another measure cited during the presentation.

The survey also found that Nigerians had greater confidence in some technological components of the electoral process than in the institution administering the election.

Forty-nine per cent of respondents said they trusted election technology, including accreditation and the IReV results-transmission system, compared with the 34 per cent who expressed confidence in INEC.

Ms Bichi said the finding suggested that Nigerians were increasingly placing their trust in electoral technology rather than solely in the institutions responsible for conducting elections.

Trust in electoral process becomes partisan

Yiaga Africa also found a relationship between citizens’ assessment of the current government’s performance and their confidence in the electoral commission.

The survey found that 54 per cent of respondents approved of the current government’s performance, while 71 per cent rated the state of the economy as poor or very poor.

Ms Bichi said confidence in INEC appeared to have taken on a partisan dimension.

She said respondents who rated the current government’s performance highly were also more likely to express confidence in INEC. In contrast, those dissatisfied with the government’s performance tended to have lower confidence in the electoral commission.

This, she said, suggested that public trust in the electoral process was not merely institutional but was increasingly influenced by political perceptions.

Low confidence in judiciary

The judiciary also recorded low levels of public confidence in its ability to resolve electoral disputes.

The survey found that 63 per cent of respondents were not confident that the judiciary would resolve electoral disputes fairly and effectively after the elections.

The South-South recorded the highest level of distrust, with 81 per cent of respondents in the region expressing a lack of confidence in the judiciary’s handling of electoral disputes.

The finding adds another layer to concerns over public confidence in Nigeria’s electoral process, from voting and security to the electoral commission and the post-election dispute resolution system.

Desire for change drives voter intention

The survey also examined why Nigerians intended to vote.

The desire for change in leadership emerged as the leading motivation, with 49 per cent of respondents identifying it as their main reason for voting.

Only 20 per cent identified civic duty as their motivation, while 16 per cent pointed to specific candidates.

Ms Bichi said the findings suggested that candidates themselves were not currently the primary motivation for participation.

Rather, the desire for a change in leadership appeared to be the dominant factor influencing voter intention.

Vote buying remains a concern

The survey also highlighted the continuing influence of vote buying on Nigeria’s electoral process.

Nineteen per cent of respondents, about one in five people surveyed, said they received money as an incentive to vote for a particular candidate in an election.

The prevalence was higher in some regions, with 32 per cent of respondents in the North-West saying they had received money to vote for a specific candidate.

Young people also featured prominently in the findings, with 24 per cent of young respondents saying they had received money to vote for a candidate.

The findings suggest that despite ongoing electoral reforms and efforts to curb inducement, financial incentives remain a significant feature of voters’ experiences.

The survey recorded a significant increase in public awareness of electoral reforms.

Only 24 per cent of respondents were aware of the electoral reform process during the first NVIS conducted in December.

The figure increased to 37 per cent in the second survey conducted in March and rose sharply to 62 per cent in the third survey.

Yiaga Africa attributed the increase to growing public awareness following the passage of the 2026 Electoral Act.

Among the reforms respondents were aware of were changes relating to accreditation and the electronic transmission of election results.

Young people less likely to vote

Despite the prominence of young Nigerians in the country’s electorate, the survey found that younger respondents showed weaker intentions to vote than older Nigerians.

Only 40 per cent of respondents in the younger age group indicated that they were likely to vote.

In contrast, 64 per cent of respondents aged 61 and above indicated that they were likely to participate.

The finding suggests a significant participation gap between younger and older voters and raises concerns about political parties’ and electoral stakeholders’ ability to mobilise young Nigerians ahead of 2027.

The survey also found a gender gap in voter intention, with 65 per cent of men indicating a likelihood to vote compared with 57 per cent of women.

INEC responds

Responding during the panel session, Victoria Eta-Messi, director of the Voter Education and Publicity Department at INEC, acknowledged the concerns around public trust and voter participation but defended the commission’s efforts to improve the electoral process.

Ms Eta-Messi said continued focus on the 2023 elections without recognising improvements made since then was concerning.

“The fact that people just keep holding on to 2023 rather than seeing the small steps that we’re making is a bit worrisome,” she said.

She, however, acknowledged that INEC still had significant work to do to increase participation and restore public confidence.

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She cited the recently concluded Osun election as an example of improvements the commission was seeking to build on.

According to her, INEC had been concerned about the Osun election because of the attention it would attract as a test of the commission’s preparations ahead of 2027.

She said the commission was encouraged by the conduct of the election, particularly improvements in the deployment of personnel and materials.

Ms Eta-Messi said INEC was also working to improve its infrastructure and logistics, while engaging transport unions, including the National Union of Road Transport Workers and the National Association of Road Transport Owners, to address challenges experienced during previous elections.

She said training of INEC staff and ad hoc personnel was also being strengthened to ensure that officials understand the electoral process and perform their duties effectively at polling units.

Technology and logistics

The INEC official said the commission was also working to ensure that technology was deployed appropriately during elections while maintaining human safeguards.

She said technology would not be allowed to operate without checks and controls, stressing that human oversight would remain part of the electoral process.

She also identified logistics as one of the areas requiring continued attention.

According to her, the commission’s experience during the Osun election showed that better planning could improve the movement of personnel and electoral materials and ensure that polling units opened on time.

Need for grassroots mobilisation

Ms Eta-Messi said improving electoral participation would require greater engagement with Nigerians at the grassroots.

She said a significant proportion of the electorate lived outside major urban centres and that electoral stakeholders must therefore use available platforms to reach citizens in local communities.

She said INEC was engaging organisations and institutions that could assist in voter education and mobilisation, including the National Orientation Agency (NOA).